{"id":472759,"date":"2026-09-21T06:21:01","date_gmt":"2026-09-21T13:21:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=472759"},"modified":"2026-09-21T06:21:04","modified_gmt":"2026-09-21T13:21:04","slug":"the-el-nino-is-but-a-band-aid-on-the-western-drought","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=472759","title":{"rendered":"The El Nino is but a Band-Aid on the western drought"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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A solitary sunflower stands defiantly amid a jagged, parched terrain, with rugged mountains fading into the horizon, symbolizing hope amid desolation.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Joe Bastardi<\/a>|<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The drought in the West will persist until the La Ni\u00f1a base state changes. And that won\u2019t happen until the forcing causing the distorted warming changes. And there is no reason to believe it will happen, even if nations decide to commit economic suicide via net zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what is the La Ni\u00f1a Base State? It is a climate Le Chatelierian response to the warming. Remember what Le Chatelier\u2019s principle says:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Le Chatelier\u2019s principle states that if a dynamic equilibrium<\/strong> is disturbed by changing conditions, the position of equilibrium shifts to counteract the change and reestablish equilibrium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is obvious when we look at the Multivariate ENSO Index, which, since the great El Ni\u00f1o of 1997-98, has been more negative than positive.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"Line<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The climate debate has prostituted the physical meaning of this. People on my side of the AGW issue try to push the idea that a La Ni\u00f1a has a cooling impact. It does, but only in response to the sudden warming of El Ni\u00f1o (which, btw, shows you it\u2019s water vapor, not CO2 that impacts temperature) and only to establish a new equilibrium, which can be clearly seen if one examines the relationship of El Ni\u00f1o to the temperature surges, the fall-off, and the new plateau that develops behind it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Graph<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

You can clearly see when the strong El Ni\u00f1os went off: the rapid rise, then the fall to a higher equilibrium. It\u2019s a step-up function. These started to become really impactful after the geothermal input started. There was a very strong El Ni\u00f1o in 1982-83, and then 1986-87, and yet no equilibrium increase.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"Graph<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

But if we then look at the increase in SST after the input from geothermal, we get the answer to why the 1997-98 event did what the previous ones did not, and why each subsequent one has continued: There is more heat to put into the atmosphere. The fact that there were more El Ni\u00f1os before 1997-98 shows that the earth was not warming, as there was a warm response to the cooling, but overall, the planet did not warm. That can be plainly seen in the decadal temperatures from the 1950s to the decade ending in 1985 (the input started its rise after that).<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"Global<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\"World<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The change there is much less than what has occurred since then.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"World<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

This is why the global temperature metric, though mathematical, has some value in helping to explain what we are seeing. The nature of the warming, more away from the tropical Pacific than around it, means warmer temperatures and more low pressure over Indonesia and the Indian Ocean, and higher pressures in the mid-latitudes in the northern and southern hemispheres.<\/p>\n\n\n

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\"World<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

This creates a stronger easterly flow in the mean in the equatorial Pacific and hence the La Ni\u00f1a base state overall. El Ni\u00f1os, when they occur, have a greater heat source to tap, so they can go off, but you will see this collapse quickly in the spring, and next year at this time there should be a strengthening La Ni\u00f1a. And the lack of hurricanes this season will reverse. We are already thinking a major impact year is on the way next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All this is to explain that the drought-quenching rains with this El Ni\u00f1o, in the West, are a Band-Aid on a wound that cannot heal in this state. And it\u2019s feeding back. You see that same distortion leads to less cloud cover in areas with the most incoming solar radiation, which in turn leads to a reduction in the Earth\u2019s albedo (along with less ice), and that is a major natural warming signal. The man-made climate advocates want you to believe it\u2019s CO2. Any point they have is dwarfed by the large natural forcing as described above. So, until the natural causes change, the West is in big trouble. For a while, I have been on record since April saying this El Ni\u00f1o is going to bust up the drought across the South and Southwest, it\u2019s a one-year event, and they will be right back in the overall trend toward drier within a few months of the El Ni\u00f1o ending.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Knowing this, people in the West have to adapt rather than shake their fists at the sky or blame this or that. But overall, they have been just as negligent as people who should have had all hands on deck for the grid (if anything, the Biden administration was doing all it could to sabotage that). But what is going on in the West will get a Band-Aid. It has already started, as the anticipated Pacific-tropical connection, be it direct or indirect, is occurring. But this El Ni\u00f1o, with a negative PDO and such high-water temps off the Mexican coast, is going to be able to dump heavy to excessive amounts of precipitation across the South into the spring. I said the drought headlines will be replaced by flood headlines, and it\u2019s already starting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the bottom line: This is a Band-Aid on the overall situation in the West, and adaptation policies need to be developed with all haste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The history tells us that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tree-ring reconstructions (the North American Drought Atlas and related Colorado River \/ Sierra Nevada streamflow reconstructions) show repeated \u201cmegadroughts\u201d \u2014 persistent dry spells of roughly 20\u201340 years or more \u2014 especially between about 800 and 1600 CE. Notable examples include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n