{"id":471249,"date":"2026-09-15T09:27:49","date_gmt":"2026-09-15T16:27:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=471249"},"modified":"2026-09-15T09:27:52","modified_gmt":"2026-09-15T16:27:52","slug":"antarcticas-record-695-billion-ton-ice-gain-temporary-tropical-surprise-not-a-climate-reversal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=471249","title":{"rendered":"Antarctica\u2019s Record 695-Billion-Ton Ice Gain: Temporary Tropical Surprise, Not a Climate Reversal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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AI generated by Grok<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

A peer- reviewed paper published in Nature on 19 August 2026 (led by researchers including Yunhe Wang from the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, with international collaborators) reports that the Antarctic Ice Sheet gained approximately 695 billion tonnes (Gt) of mass over a roughly 22-month period spanning 2021- 2023.<\/strong> This was the largest mass gain of comparable length in the GRACE\/GRACE-FO satellite gravimetry record, which began in 2002\/2003.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The gain was concentrated in East Antarctica<\/strong>, especially Queen Mary Land and Wilkes Land <\/strong>(roughly 470 Gt, or ~68% of the total). It resulted from exceptionally heavy snowfall, driven by anomalous moisture transport (including atmospheric rivers) from the mid- latitude Indian Ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sustained warming of about 0.5\u00b0C in the tropical warm pool<\/strong> (western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans) altered atmospheric circulation via Rossby wave trains.<\/strong> This created pressure patterns that funneled more moisture southward. The event was largely natural variability (anthropogenic climate change explained only ~9% of the snowfall anomaly).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between 2003 and 2024, Antarctica lost ice at an average rate of ~140.5 Gt per year.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

West Antarctica continued losing mass during the gain period (due to ocean- driven melting of ice shelves and accelerated glacier flow). The 2021- 2023 episode temporarily offset losses and even produced a near-zero or slightly positive overall balance for parts of 2021- 2024 in some analyses, but it does not reverse the multi- decade decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earlier related work had already noted strong mass gains in 2021- 2022 (on the order of ~130 Gt\/year) from anomalous precipitation; the 2026 study extended and attributed the larger multi- year signal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Subsequent data (into 2024- 2025) indicate the anomalous accumulation period has largely ended, with mass balance turning negative again in more recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, the headline figure is correct and reflects a real, well- documented temporary anomaly driven by tropical\u2013 polar teleconnections<\/strong> and heavy snowfall<\/strong>, not a reversal of Antarctica\u2019s overall ice- loss trend under ongoing climate warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GRACE and GRACE- FO<\/strong> are a pair of NASA\/German satellite missions that measure changes in Earth\u2019s gravity field to track how mass (especially water and ice) moves around the planet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quick Overview<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mission<\/th>Full Name<\/th>Operational Period<\/th>Key Feature<\/th><\/tr>
GRACE<\/strong><\/td>Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment<\/td>March 2002- October 2017<\/td>First mission of its kind<\/td><\/tr>
GRACE- FO<\/strong><\/td>GRACE Follow- On<\/td>May 2018- present<\/td>Continues the record and laser instrument<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Two identical satellites fly in the same polar orbit, about 220 km (137 miles) <\/strong>apart, one behind the other, at roughly 490 km altitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n