{"id":469630,"date":"2026-09-09T14:40:56","date_gmt":"2026-09-09T21:40:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=469630"},"modified":"2026-09-09T14:40:59","modified_gmt":"2026-09-09T21:40:59","slug":"hurricane-update-september-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=469630","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane update \u2014 September, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"542\" data-attachment-id=\"469631\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=469631\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?fit=2365%2C1774&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"2365,1774\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Clear blue ocean horizon under bright sky. High quality photo&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Clear blue ocean horizon under bright sky. High quality photo&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;1&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Clear blue ocean horizon under bright sky. High quality photo\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Clear blue ocean horizon under bright sky. High quality photo&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?fit=723%2C542&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?resize=723%2C542&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A calm ocean view under a clear blue sky, with gentle waves and no visible land in sight.\" class=\"wp-image-469631\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?resize=1024%2C768&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?resize=768%2C576&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?resize=1536%2C1152&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?resize=2048%2C1536&amp;ssl=1 2048w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?resize=640%2C480&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?w=1446&amp;ssl=1 1446w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?w=2169&amp;ssl=1 2169w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Clear blue ocean horizon under bright sky. High quality photo<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/2026\/09\/09\/hurricane-update-september-2026\/#\">CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/author\/guestauthor47181744466634www-cfact-org\/\">Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>September 6, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The midpoint of the hurricane season (by total ACE index) is September 11.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So far, we are at record lows, but that doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019s over yet.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Very warm water outside the areas most impacted by El Ni\u00f1o suggests we still need to stay on our toes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Total storms: 8-12 (5 through September 5)<\/em><br><em>Hurricanes. 1-3 (0 through September 5)<\/em><br><em>Majors: 1-1 (0 through September 5)<\/em><br><em>Total ACE: 40-55 (less than 5 through September 5)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is still reason for concern after mid-September, as a frenzy to the north of the Main Development Region (MDR), and relatively close to the U.S., can occur. The map represents where I believe 75% of whatever ACE is left will occur:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"452\" data-attachment-id=\"469634\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=469634\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-59.png?fit=640%2C452&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,452\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-59.png?fit=640%2C452&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-59.png?resize=640%2C452&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast with highlighted areas, including 75% of Remaining ACE, and predictive statistics for named storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and total ACE issued on September 6, 2026.\" class=\"wp-image-469634\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-59.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-59.png?resize=300%2C212&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Euro has virtually nothing on&nbsp;it the&nbsp;next 4 weeks. I don\u2019t believe that as the MJO is going into most favored phases,<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"638\" height=\"640\" data-attachment-id=\"469636\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=469636\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60.png?fit=638%2C640&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"638,640\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60.png?fit=638%2C640&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60.png?resize=638%2C640&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Scatter plot displaying clustered data points in various colors, with a black line tracing a path through the clusters.\" class=\"wp-image-469636\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60.png?w=638&amp;ssl=1 638w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60.png?resize=300%2C300&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60.png?resize=150%2C150&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60.png?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60.png?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-60.png?resize=50%2C50&amp;ssl=1 50w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 638px) 100vw, 638px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">and the very warm water north of the MDR where feedback features can spin up<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"526\" data-attachment-id=\"469638\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=469638\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-61.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,526\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-61.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-61.png?resize=640%2C526&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing sea surface temperature anomalies in degrees Celsius for the Atlantic Ocean as of September 6, 2026, with warmer areas displayed in orange and red, and cooler areas in blue and green.\" class=\"wp-image-469638\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-61.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-61.png?resize=300%2C247&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">and support an increase in activity, though not in the MDR, because there is a window where the interaction of the seasonal jet would favor storminess in these areas<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Sea surface temperatures (SST) above show a very warm Atlantic, but the pattern is distorted, with it warmer than average north of the main development areas. This \u201cspreads out\u201d the heat distribution. For hurricanes to develop most strongly, heat needs to focus.&nbsp; So just because the water is warm does not mean there have to be storms. In fact, as you are seeing here, it\u2019s a lesson all over: Distorted warming will negate, not enhance, storminess.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now one may say, \u201cIt\u2019s all the El Ni\u00f1o.\u201d Certainly, a lot of it is. But look at the 2023\u201324 El Ni\u00f1o, which reached strong levels in its Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index rating, and the Atlantic was hyperactive, though almost all of it was out at sea.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"496\" data-attachment-id=\"469640\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=469640\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-62.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-62.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-62.png?resize=640%2C496&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Global surface skin temperature anomaly map for August to October 2023, showing variations in temperature with colored regions indicating different anomaly values compared to the 1991-2020 climate average.\" class=\"wp-image-469640\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-62.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-62.png?resize=300%2C233&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notice the cooler western part of the basin further north than it is now, where it\u2019s warm to the north and cooler to the south. However, there is a window of the cool over warm, and we are placing it above average relative to the seasonal total area there, from the Gulf out into the Atlantic east of the United States. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This means the U.S. can get hit. A couple of African waves may try to develop, but they would likely stay far out. So, we come down to the in-close development, like we have seen with the three impact storms already, as the problem, if there is one.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"389\" data-attachment-id=\"469642\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=469642\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-63.png?fit=640%2C389&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,389\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-63.png?fit=640%2C389&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-63.png?resize=640%2C389&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Map showing seasonal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the global ocean from June 7 to September 2026, with areas of varying temperatures represented in colors.\" class=\"wp-image-469642\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-63.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-63.png?resize=300%2C182&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Notice also the cooler relative to averages to the north of the EPAC warming. It\u2019s no secret the Pacific Basin is way up this year. The cooling in the WPAC has been from so many storms so far.&nbsp; A hint that we may have this burst is if we see the Pacific slow down.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are all sorts of old-school ideas about what we are seeing at play here. A late arrival of the Indian monsoon indicated a weaker African wave train. Another idea is that only so much energy can circle the Earth in the tropics, and if it\u2019s distorted and taken up by one basin, the other will be much less active.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The&nbsp;third idea&nbsp;is that a hemispheric pulse favors one area of the world over the other.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This was developed many years ago, and recent MJO studies certainly have shown it has merit. One can see it in the MJO.&nbsp; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For much of the season, it has been in phase 6\/7, which are not phases for US Impact. Two of the three storms that hit developed in phase 8\/1, the more favorable phases, and chances are&nbsp;we will&nbsp;journey into those phases for a while again before the season ends.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"355\" data-attachment-id=\"469644\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=469644\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-64.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-64.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-64.png?resize=640%2C355&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"Global wind and velocity potential anomaly map for September 8, 2026, showing patterns with brown representing lower and green indicating higher anomalies at 200mb.\" class=\"wp-image-469644\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-64.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/image-64.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The chart above implies the greatest spreading of air at the top of the troposphere over the eastern Pacific and the greatest sinking around Indonesia.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Where it is spreading out at the top, it must rise in the lower levels. The sweet spot for development is from beneath the center of the green to the eastern part of the brown area, because it means the low-level easterlies are weaker than average due to the idea that air must go up in the lower levels, where it\u2019s spreading apart at the upper levels, allowing low-level convergence and storm development. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, the Atlantic is on the short end of the stick.\u00a0 In active seasons in the Atlantic, it\u2019s the opposite, and the Pacific is less active. We have seen this to a large extent this century, as the Atlantic basin has had much higher ACES relative to the average than the western Pacific, with the Eastern Pacific more or less a wash. Storms develop on average further north, are smaller in size, and can become intense, but many weaker storms are getting named, so the Global ACE index has been trending down, and the ACE\/Storm has decreased.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Which, again, is a byproduct of the distorted warming and OPPOSITE the message that was pushed about more storms and more intense. The other factor, which our power and impact scale emphasizes, is size.\u00a0 When Donna hit\u00a0SW Fla\u00a0as a Cat 4 in 1960, winds gusted to near 100 mph around Miami.\u00a0 When Ian hit, the highest gusts were around 50.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Even Melissa in Jamaica, which was catastrophic where it hit, had gusts only up to near 60 at Kingston, about 70 miles to the east.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the bottom line is that it\u2019s not over yet.&nbsp; The configuration of the warm water, the seasonal shift in the pattern, and the MJO moving toward more favorable phases give us a 2-3 week window where we can have a flurry of development, and odds are it would be in close to the US<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But there is a bigger climate lesson here. Storms are not getting worse overall. There is a cap on that, and the way it is warming is actually arguing for fewer major large storms, not the more widespread doom and gloom that has been pushed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We did have a below-normal season forecasted from early April, but the first half was almost scoreless ACE-wise. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That ACE index has been cut in half to a top-10 below-average season. As far as names, well\u00a0that\u2019s\u00a0probably good. The threat in the NW Atlantic was more an early-season idea, and so we are likely by that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the numbers and names are a classroom game; impact is what counts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">One more thing: If this is all El Nino, shouldn\u2019t this be scored as a positive impact?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is still reason for concern after mid-September, as a frenzy to the north of the Main Development Region (MDR), and relatively close to the U.S., can occur.<\/p>\n<p>For hurricanes to develop most strongly, heat needs to focus.  So just because the water is warm does not mean there have to be storms. In fact, as you are seeing here, it\u2019s a lesson all over: Distorted warming will negate, not enhance, storminess.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":469631,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Discover the latest hurricane season insights for September 2026, including storm forecasts, ocean conditions, and climate impact analysis.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"2026 Hurricane Season: Insights and Future Predictions","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691845272,691818104,691845269,691820968],"class_list":["post-469630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-ace-index","tag-hurricanes","tag-main-development-region-mdr","tag-sea-surface-temperatures-sst","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1YaG","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":279743,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279743","url_meta":{"origin":469630,"position":0},"title":"The Great New England Hurricane of 1938","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/21\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"On September 21, 1938, one of the most destructive and powerful hurricanes in recorded history struck Long Island and Southern New England. Little media attention was given to the powerful hurricane while it was out at sea as Europe was on the brink of war and was the overriding story\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"1938\"","block_context":{"text":"1938","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1938"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/009_21.1_1938.jpg?fit=1200%2C615&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/009_21.1_1938.jpg?fit=1200%2C615&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/009_21.1_1938.jpg?fit=1200%2C615&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/009_21.1_1938.jpg?fit=1200%2C615&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/009_21.1_1938.jpg?fit=1200%2C615&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":446161,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161","url_meta":{"origin":469630,"position":1},"title":"GOOD NEWS: NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, 2026, and it does call for a below-normal season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2026 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2026 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2026-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":272891,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272891","url_meta":{"origin":469630,"position":2},"title":"Hurricane update","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Power and Impact scale rates the storm intensity during the highest impact (they do not have to make \u201clandfall\u201d, just cause the conditions).","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":407511,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=407511","url_meta":{"origin":469630,"position":3},"title":"Where Are All the Hurricanes? (Guest: Joe Bastardi) \u2014 The Climate Realism Show #177","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In Episode #177 of The Climate Realism Show, The Heartland Institute\u2019s Anthony Watts, Sterling Burnett, Linnea Lueken, and Jim Lakely also tackle the Crazy Climate News of the Week, including a misleading Bloomberg chart that \u201cclimate denialists can\u2019t ignore,\u201d how arson, not \u201cclimate change,\u201d caused the Pacific Palisades fire, why\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Arson\"","block_context":{"text":"Arson","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=arson"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-10-173656.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-10-173656.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-10-173656.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-10-173656.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0Screenshot-2025-10-10-173656.png?fit=1200%2C673&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":278513,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278513","url_meta":{"origin":469630,"position":4},"title":"DeSantis is Right, New York Times, We Should all \u2018Shrug Off the Threat\u2019 of Catastrophic Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/13\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"In short, DeSantis is right to \u201cshrug off\u201d the climate hype and focus instead on the real problems facing Florida. Doing so might reduce the chances of sea water incursion and subsidence, and minimize damage done by hurricanes undoubtedly instore for the state in the future. Ending fossil fuel use\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/08c0f88c50daf76614fa6d303631f262d.jpeg?fit=1200%2C825&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/08c0f88c50daf76614fa6d303631f262d.jpeg?fit=1200%2C825&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/08c0f88c50daf76614fa6d303631f262d.jpeg?fit=1200%2C825&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/08c0f88c50daf76614fa6d303631f262d.jpeg?fit=1200%2C825&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/08c0f88c50daf76614fa6d303631f262d.jpeg?fit=1200%2C825&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":409797,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=409797","url_meta":{"origin":469630,"position":5},"title":"The Hurricane Season That Still Isn\u2019t","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/23\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Cynical, disaster-seeking climate change hysterics have been pushing, for decades now, a narrative that global warming, especially warming ocean temperatures, increase the risk of hurricane activity. Every year, they seem to be eagerly awaiting devastating superstorms to prove them right. And the 2025 hurricane season looked ripe.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate agenda\"","block_context":{"text":"climate agenda","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-agenda"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMXW0YglThsv7wV0_x8YBGe-KTMFXEZbLx55uX4giqPVsYBbjJrphvPDnIMfFejK-VgpspcFPYVP9-NVc9xCrw-NEZkd5R_tzC5UqJRW_RCsmQTqYPToAqUomZS_iTMgWPXHP33TOy56xLLQkrCLyLQjVaHQw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMXW0YglThsv7wV0_x8YBGe-KTMFXEZbLx55uX4giqPVsYBbjJrphvPDnIMfFejK-VgpspcFPYVP9-NVc9xCrw-NEZkd5R_tzC5UqJRW_RCsmQTqYPToAqUomZS_iTMgWPXHP33TOy56xLLQkrCLyLQjVaHQw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMXW0YglThsv7wV0_x8YBGe-KTMFXEZbLx55uX4giqPVsYBbjJrphvPDnIMfFejK-VgpspcFPYVP9-NVc9xCrw-NEZkd5R_tzC5UqJRW_RCsmQTqYPToAqUomZS_iTMgWPXHP33TOy56xLLQkrCLyLQjVaHQw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMXW0YglThsv7wV0_x8YBGe-KTMFXEZbLx55uX4giqPVsYBbjJrphvPDnIMfFejK-VgpspcFPYVP9-NVc9xCrw-NEZkd5R_tzC5UqJRW_RCsmQTqYPToAqUomZS_iTMgWPXHP33TOy56xLLQkrCLyLQjVaHQw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMXW0YglThsv7wV0_x8YBGe-KTMFXEZbLx55uX4giqPVsYBbjJrphvPDnIMfFejK-VgpspcFPYVP9-NVc9xCrw-NEZkd5R_tzC5UqJRW_RCsmQTqYPToAqUomZS_iTMgWPXHP33TOy56xLLQkrCLyLQjVaHQw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Calm-ocean-blue.jpg?fit=2365%2C1774&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=469630"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469630\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":469652,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/469630\/revisions\/469652"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/469631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=469630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=469630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=469630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}