{"id":469345,"date":"2026-09-08T13:14:23","date_gmt":"2026-09-08T20:14:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=469345"},"modified":"2026-09-08T13:14:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-08T20:14:25","slug":"rising-co%e2%82%82-puts-the-brakes-on-global-dryland-expansion","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=469345","title":{"rendered":"Rising CO\u2082 Puts the Brakes on Global Dryland Expansion"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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AI generated by Grok<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Global greening<\/strong> refers to the widespread increase in vegetation cover, leaf area, and productivity observed via satellites (using metrics like NDVI, LAI, or GPP) since the early 1980s. It is one of the clearest large- scale responses of the biosphere to rising atmospheric CO\u2082, climate change, and human land management.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Satellite records (AVHRR, MODIS, VIIRS, and harmonized products) show consistent global greening of vegetated land since ~1982. Roughly 25- 50% or more of vegetated areas have shown significant increases in leaf area, equivalent in some earlier analyses to adding leaf area on the scale of two continental United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The trend has persisted and, in recent years, strengthened. Global mean vegetation greenness set records in 2024 and again in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2024, ~67.7% of vegetated land surfaces showed greening (positive anomalies), raising the 2000- 2024 trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2025, ~68.2% of vegetated surfaces greened, further steepening the trend (to ~8.5 \u00d7 10\u207b\u2074 yr\u207b\u00b9 for the 2000\u20132025 period in one analysis). Herbaceous ecosystems (grasslands ~72%, croplands ~78%) dominated the recent signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Greening is not uniform:<\/strong> some regions experience browning due to drought, heat, deforestation, or other stressors (e.g., parts of the Amazon, southern Africa, or eastern Siberia in certain years). Overall, greening far outweighs browning at the global scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CO\u2082 fertilization<\/strong> is widely identified as the dominant global driver. Higher CO\u2082 boosts photosynthesis and improves water- use efficiency (plants partially close stomata, losing less water). Attribution studies using models and statistical approaches commonly attribute ~70% (or higher, e.g., ~83% in one 1982- 2021 analysis) of the greening to rising CO\u2082.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other important factors, varying by region:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate<\/strong> \u2014 Warming extends growing seasons (especially autumn phenology in extratropical forests) and benefits high- latitude\/Arctic areas; precipitation increases drive recent hotspots in grasslands and croplands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Land use and management<\/strong> \u2014 Agricultural intensification, irrigation, fertilization, and afforestation are major contributors, especially in China and India (together accounting for a large share of new vegetation since 2000). Human activities can outweigh pure CO\u2082 effects in managed drylands and croplands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nitrogen deposition and other factors play smaller roles globally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In drylands specifically (linking to the prior discussion of aridity and CO\u2082), greening is widespread despite rising temperatures and aridity indices in many areas. CO\u2082- driven water savings allow more vegetation growth for a given amount of moisture; human management (e.g., cropland expansion) also contributes substantially. Some studies find greening in a majority of drylands, with net productivity gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regional patterns and recent highlights<\/p>\n\n\n\n