{"id":467164,"date":"2026-08-30T12:53:34","date_gmt":"2026-08-30T19:53:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=467164"},"modified":"2026-08-30T12:53:36","modified_gmt":"2026-08-30T19:53:36","slug":"no-the-un-did-not-predict-the-maldives-would-drown-by-2018","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=467164","title":{"rendered":"No, the UN Did Not Predict the Maldives Would Drown by 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"485\" data-attachment-id=\"467165\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=467165\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-No-the-UN-Did-Not-Predict-the-Maldives-Would-Drown-by-2018.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1168,784\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" 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data-image-title=\"0 No, the UN Did Not Predict the Maldives Would Drown by 2018\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"&lt;p&gt;Signature: 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&lt;\/p&gt;\n\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-No-the-UN-Did-Not-Predict-the-Maldives-Would-Drown-by-2018.jpg?fit=723%2C485&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-No-the-UN-Did-Not-Predict-the-Maldives-Would-Drown-by-2018.jpg?resize=723%2C485&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-467165\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-No-the-UN-Did-Not-Predict-the-Maldives-Would-Drown-by-2018.jpg?resize=1024%2C687&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-No-the-UN-Did-Not-Predict-the-Maldives-Would-Drown-by-2018.jpg?resize=300%2C201&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-No-the-UN-Did-Not-Predict-the-Maldives-Would-Drown-by-2018.jpg?resize=768%2C516&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-No-the-UN-Did-Not-Predict-the-Maldives-Would-Drown-by-2018.jpg?resize=640%2C430&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-No-the-UN-Did-Not-Predict-the-Maldives-Would-Drown-by-2018.jpg?w=1168&amp;ssl=1 1168w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">AI generated by Grok<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">No, the United Nations did not predict in 1988 that all 1,196 islands of the Maldives would drown between 2008 and 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The UN- UNEP only planned a study at the time.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The specific claim is a misattribution of statements by Maldivian government officials reported in contemporary news coverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On 26 September 1988, an AFP report (published in Australia\u2019s The Canberra Times and elsewhere) stated:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cA gradual rise in average sea level is threatening to completely cover this Indian Ocean nation of 1196 small islands within the next 30 years, according to authorities.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Maldives Environmental Affairs Director Hussein Shihab<\/strong> was quoted saying an estimated rise of 20- 30 cm in the next 20- 40 years \u201ccould be \u2018catastrophic\u2019 for most of the islands, which were no more than a metre above sea level.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The same report noted the <strong>United Nations Environment Programme<\/strong> was planning a study and mentioned a separate (also unrealized) concern that drinking- water supplies might dry up by 1992.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This was a statement from Maldivian officials (following severe flooding in 1987 that damaged the capital Mal\u00e9), not a formal UN scientific prediction or IPCC assessment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom had raised sea- level concerns at the <strong>UN and Commonwealth meetings around 1987\u2013 88<\/strong>, describing a <strong>potential \u201cdeath of a nation,\u201d <\/strong>but those were political warnings rather than dated quantitative forecasts of total submersion by a specific year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Early media and some expert commentary in the late 1980s<\/strong> sometimes framed low- lying atolls as <strong>potentially disappearing on multi- decade timescales<\/strong> under high- end sea- level scenarios of the era, but the precise<strong> \u201call islands gone by ~2018\u201d<\/strong> wording traces to the 1988 AFP report of local authorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Maldives still exist.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T<strong>he islands have not been submerged.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tourism infrastructure has expanded (including airport developments), and studies have documented that many reef islands have remained stable in area or grown through natural accretion and sediment processes, even as relative sea level has risen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Sea level has risen.<\/strong> Local tide-gauge and other data show relative sea-level rise on the order of roughly 3+ mm\/year in recent decades in the region (e.g., ~3.4 mm\/year averages cited for periods including 1987- 2018). Global mean sea level has accelerated compared with the early 20th century. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The 20\u201330 cm rise referenced as potentially catastrophic has not occurred on that short timescale; cumulative rise since the late 1980s is substantially less.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Vulnerability remains real.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Most islands are very low- lying (typically &lt;1\u20132 m above mean sea level). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Flooding, erosion, saltwater intrusion into freshwater lenses, and storm- related impacts are ongoing concerns. Longer- term projections (e.g., toward 2100) under higher- emission scenarios continue to flag substantial risks of inundation or uninhabitability for large portions of the archipelago without adaptation (seawalls, land reclamation, elevated structures, etc.). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Contemporary scientific estimates circulating in the late 1980s projected global sea- level rise on the order of tens of centimeters to a couple of meters over a century under various scenarios. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Maldivian officials and leaders highlighted the extreme vulnerability of their low- lying islands and used strong language about potential national catastrophe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">UNEP facilitated studies and the UN provided a forum, but there was no official United Nations prediction that the entire archipelago would be underwater by 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Maldives government has pursued adaptation and international advocacy on the issue for decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Maldives hosted the Small States Conference on Sea Level Rise (14\u201318 November 1989). <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The resulting Male Declaration on Global Warming and Sea Level Rise (transmitted to the UN) expressed deep concern about the threat of sea- level rise to low-lying island states, called for international cooperation, monitoring, and action (including support from UNEP, WMO, and others), and recognized the emerging IPCC process. It did not contain a prediction that the Maldives would drown by 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A 1988 news report of Maldivian officials warning of potential catastrophic effects from modest sea- level rise within a few decades has been widely circulated (especially in skeptic commentary around 2018) as a failed \u201cUN and experts predicted total drowning by 2018\u201d claim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The islands are still above water, sea level has risen more slowly than the most alarming short-term framing implied<\/strong>, and natural island dynamics plus human adaptation have so far prevented the worst outcomes of that particular warning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom had raised sea- level concerns at the UN and Commonwealth meetings around 1987\u2013 88, describing a potential \u201cdeath of a nation,\u201d but those were political warnings rather than dated quantitative forecasts of total submersion by a specific year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":467165,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom had raised sea- level concerns at the UN and Commonwealth meetings around 1987\u201388, describing a potential \"death of a nation,\" but those were political warnings rather than dated quantitative forecasts of total submersion by a specific year.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691845050,691845051,691818519,691845052,691820093,691845053,691822621,691818760],"class_list":["post-467164","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-australias-the-canberra-times","tag-environmental-affairs-director-hussein-shihab","tag-maldives","tag-president-maumoon-abdul-gayoom","tag-sea-level","tag-tourism-infrastructure","tag-un-environment-programme-unep","tag-united-nations","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1XwU","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":401126,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=401126","url_meta":{"origin":467164,"position":0},"title":"Get the Facts Straight, The Independent, Island Nations Are Growing, Not \u201cSinking Into the Sea\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Independent\u00a0posted an article claiming multiple small island nations are sinking into the sea, threatening the cease existing as nations, leaving their populations adrift. Data shows this is simply false. Amid modest sea level rise, the island nations that\u00a0The Independent\u00a0discusses have increased in size, population, and prosperity amid modest climate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMERreLRrCgfBBUMvXEgW7mpVwzK0uhmdkhwwJqSG6UA5wUZUkmfaamFq1V3A94xKEZdnWGHXEPcECa4qbr8sWqn3kxC4qJqGZwwawApyowLlalh2Ib9QucILepODiSqS36xegM4AXYiMApMhqkc-6SIjXSMw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMERreLRrCgfBBUMvXEgW7mpVwzK0uhmdkhwwJqSG6UA5wUZUkmfaamFq1V3A94xKEZdnWGHXEPcECa4qbr8sWqn3kxC4qJqGZwwawApyowLlalh2Ib9QucILepODiSqS36xegM4AXYiMApMhqkc-6SIjXSMw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMERreLRrCgfBBUMvXEgW7mpVwzK0uhmdkhwwJqSG6UA5wUZUkmfaamFq1V3A94xKEZdnWGHXEPcECa4qbr8sWqn3kxC4qJqGZwwawApyowLlalh2Ib9QucILepODiSqS36xegM4AXYiMApMhqkc-6SIjXSMw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMERreLRrCgfBBUMvXEgW7mpVwzK0uhmdkhwwJqSG6UA5wUZUkmfaamFq1V3A94xKEZdnWGHXEPcECa4qbr8sWqn3kxC4qJqGZwwawApyowLlalh2Ib9QucILepODiSqS36xegM4AXYiMApMhqkc-6SIjXSMw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQMERreLRrCgfBBUMvXEgW7mpVwzK0uhmdkhwwJqSG6UA5wUZUkmfaamFq1V3A94xKEZdnWGHXEPcECa4qbr8sWqn3kxC4qJqGZwwawApyowLlalh2Ib9QucILepODiSqS36xegM4AXYiMApMhqkc-6SIjXSMw-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":413988,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413988","url_meta":{"origin":467164,"position":1},"title":"Modeling Manufactured Vulnerability: Why the Maldives Refuse To Sink Despite the Headlines","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Every few months, a new study emerges claiming to have finally cracked the code on why the Maldives\u2014or Kiribati, Tuvalu, or whichever island chain is the fashionable climate casualty of the moment\u2014are supposedly on the verge of disappearing under rising seas. They never quite do, of course, but that fact\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Bad Science\"","block_context":{"text":"Bad Science","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bad-science"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOmLt67Qv6NjUAYmMYd-Ejz6doEKlOCyKifC9-vb7uRH-tEKyfBmxLO5Uku_nBc4swkMF3eKp019DqLT4681J9cNjrqA2K_SBGX-DRR4Ecsice2bb75YSmbH8aULkE-1-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C571&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOmLt67Qv6NjUAYmMYd-Ejz6doEKlOCyKifC9-vb7uRH-tEKyfBmxLO5Uku_nBc4swkMF3eKp019DqLT4681J9cNjrqA2K_SBGX-DRR4Ecsice2bb75YSmbH8aULkE-1-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C571&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOmLt67Qv6NjUAYmMYd-Ejz6doEKlOCyKifC9-vb7uRH-tEKyfBmxLO5Uku_nBc4swkMF3eKp019DqLT4681J9cNjrqA2K_SBGX-DRR4Ecsice2bb75YSmbH8aULkE-1-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C571&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOmLt67Qv6NjUAYmMYd-Ejz6doEKlOCyKifC9-vb7uRH-tEKyfBmxLO5Uku_nBc4swkMF3eKp019DqLT4681J9cNjrqA2K_SBGX-DRR4Ecsice2bb75YSmbH8aULkE-1-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C571&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0AQOmLt67Qv6NjUAYmMYd-Ejz6doEKlOCyKifC9-vb7uRH-tEKyfBmxLO5Uku_nBc4swkMF3eKp019DqLT4681J9cNjrqA2K_SBGX-DRR4Ecsice2bb75YSmbH8aULkE-1-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C571&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":406756,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=406756","url_meta":{"origin":467164,"position":2},"title":"Sea Level Rise Hoax Exposed: The Disappearing Islands That Refuse To Disappear","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Germany\u2019s Klimanachrichten here publishes an article titled \u201cThe Disappearing Islands (That Don\u2019t Want to Disappear)\u201d summarizes findings suggesting that the widespread assumption about low-lying islands inevitably sinking due to rising sea levels is too simplistic and detached from reality.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate 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post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-865.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-865.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-865.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-865.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-865.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":253177,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=253177","url_meta":{"origin":467164,"position":5},"title":"Tropical Paradise Islands Are Not Sinking And Shrinking\u2026Most Are In Fact Growing!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/16\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Because of global warming, tropical paradises are said to be shrinking. 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