{"id":461104,"date":"2026-08-07T11:01:22","date_gmt":"2026-08-07T18:01:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=461104"},"modified":"2026-08-07T11:01:25","modified_gmt":"2026-08-07T18:01:25","slug":"adaptation-momentum-mitigation-fatigue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=461104","title":{"rendered":"Adaptation Momentum, Mitigation Fatigue"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Master Resource<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Robert Bradley Jr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cTrue, Australia is \u2018not reducing fast enough to achieve NSW\u2019s legislated targets of a 50% reduction by 2030 or a 70% reduction by 2035.\u2019 That calls for loosing or ending the unrealistic targets, which is now the climate policy for most industrial economies.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Rob Grant<\/a>, a self-described \u201cenergy transition leader\u201d based in Perth, Western Australia, recently expressed<\/a> the concern of the climate alarm community: that adaptation is the way forward, with traditional mitigation yielding. \u201cAustralia is quietly settling into a climate strategy of adaptation over abatement,\u201d he begins, \u201cand the temperature data says that is a bet we will lose.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Last week\u2019s Labor conference set no new aspiration on climate. Our Paris commitment stays the central plank, and if you assume we deliver on it, the comfortable read is \u201cthis is all Australia needs and can do.\u201d It might suit the current political environment of what\u2019s possible during the focus on the economy over climate (a la during the GFC), but unsurprisingly I don\u2019t agree, and nor does the draft ALP national platform. It now carries a dedicated subsection, \u201cAdapting to climate risk\u201d (clauses 14 to 18), followed by \u201cEmergency management: Building a more resilient nation\u201d (clauses 19 to 21). Read together, they tell you where the Government\u2019s head is: managing the consequences of warming rather than leading on the cause.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This makes sense, politically and otherwise. Australia has hurt its economy for no appreciable effect on climate. But the nation has a strong Climate Industrial Complex filling the pristine with industrial wind and solar and batteries. Here-and-now matters, not a hypothetical climate many years, many decades<\/em>, hence. But Grant disagrees with his concern\u2013based on recent observations\u2013that recent warming is bad and out of control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

That matters because the science keeps running ahead of the models. On current trajectories we are likely to breach 1.5\u00b0C in the early 2030s, and the recent analysis from Zeke Hausfather<\/strong><\/a> (The Strongest El Nino Ever) sharpens the near-term picture. Global temperature lags the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index by three to five months, so most of the current event\u2019s warming lands in 2027\u2026.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

But if trends change, that will be from natural causes despite anthropogenic influences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Here is the problem. Faced with that trajectory, we appear to be strapping in for a \u201cmore solar powering more air conditioners\u201d and wider insurance availability policy environment, rather than more abatement beyond what is already economic\u2026.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Grant supports adaptation through the back door.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Adaptation is necessary and I am not arguing against it. But adaptation without abatement is treating the symptom while quietly funding the disease. Every fraction of a degree we decline to prevent is one we pay to endure later \u2013 in hardened infrastructure, in insurance premiums, in lost productivity and most worringly in lives and properties lost to climate disasters.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

But mitigation increasing energy prices and slowing industry works against<\/em> adaptation. It is not a plus-plus but a minus-minus. But Grant wants to keep going down the all pain-no gain road to serfdom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

So the uncomfortable question is not whether we meet Paris. It is whether meeting Paris, as currently framed, is remotely enough. On the numbers and staring down this super El Nino, it is not. Yet more mitigation is needed in Australia to achieve its goal\u2026.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

True, Australia is \u201cnot reducing fast enough to achieve NSW\u2019s legislated targets of a 50% reduction by 2030 or a 70% reduction by 2035.\u201d That calls for loosing or ending the unrealistic targets, which is now the climate policy for most industrial economies. Bad policy should be ended, not continued, with a winner being Australia\u2019s living space with less wind and solar takeover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

APPENDIX: Adaptation Posts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global Air Conditioning: Adaptation in Action<\/a> (July 21, 2026)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adaptation: Think About It<\/a> (July 2, 2026)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Argument for Adaptation and Resilience<\/a> (July 14, 2025)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Examples of Adaptation and Resilience<\/a> (July 15, 2025)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Adaptation vs. Mitigation Fail<\/a> (June 12, 2025)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cResilience and Adaptation\u201d: Mitigation Demotion Ahead?<\/a> (October 9, 2024)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adaptation to Heat: Then and Now<\/a> (May 3, 2024)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cTrue, Australia is \u2018not reducing fast enough to achieve NSW\u2019s legislated targets of a 50% reduction by 2030 or a 70% reduction by 2035.\u2019 That calls for loosing or ending the unrealistic targets, which is now the climate policy for most industrial economies.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":461107,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"\"True, Australia is 'not reducing fast enough to achieve NSW's legislated targets of a 50% reduction by 2030 or a 70% reduction by 2035.' That calls for loosing or ending the unrealistic targets, which is now the climate policy for most industrial economies.\"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818216,691831632,691819814,691818618,691818728],"class_list":["post-461104","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-australia","tag-climate-industrial-complex-cic","tag-energy-prices-2","tag-energy-transition","tag-wind-and-solar","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1VXa","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":399478,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=399478","url_meta":{"origin":461104,"position":0},"title":"Former UN climate chief urges Australia to set \u2018prosperity\u2019 target of cutting emissions by 75% by 2035 \u2013\u00a0 \u2018Would increase the country\u2019s chance of winning rights to host Cop31 in 2026\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A former UN climate chief has urged the Australian government to set a greenhouse gas emissions reduction target of at least a 75% cut by 2035, backing calls from a group of more than 350 businesses that it would be better for the economy than a lower goal.","rel":"","context":"In \"Christiana Figueres\"","block_context":{"text":"Christiana Figueres","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=christiana-figueres"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQPaizjyix4TNNeffPfDX3Pe7I15yjJf0l7G6cU7kY_r1qW1Bp7KtIGfWJlLtsZqWlZLqiPh6Ax5B5uN-qwnizDj6OufiH8t0z7CQa3AQ4RzJvyVhDdS-fpluxG5IW4676Ost4BY60ro2Tsl9YDk-QNq6S5C-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQPaizjyix4TNNeffPfDX3Pe7I15yjJf0l7G6cU7kY_r1qW1Bp7KtIGfWJlLtsZqWlZLqiPh6Ax5B5uN-qwnizDj6OufiH8t0z7CQa3AQ4RzJvyVhDdS-fpluxG5IW4676Ost4BY60ro2Tsl9YDk-QNq6S5C-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQPaizjyix4TNNeffPfDX3Pe7I15yjJf0l7G6cU7kY_r1qW1Bp7KtIGfWJlLtsZqWlZLqiPh6Ax5B5uN-qwnizDj6OufiH8t0z7CQa3AQ4RzJvyVhDdS-fpluxG5IW4676Ost4BY60ro2Tsl9YDk-QNq6S5C-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQPaizjyix4TNNeffPfDX3Pe7I15yjJf0l7G6cU7kY_r1qW1Bp7KtIGfWJlLtsZqWlZLqiPh6Ax5B5uN-qwnizDj6OufiH8t0z7CQa3AQ4RzJvyVhDdS-fpluxG5IW4676Ost4BY60ro2Tsl9YDk-QNq6S5C-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQPaizjyix4TNNeffPfDX3Pe7I15yjJf0l7G6cU7kY_r1qW1Bp7KtIGfWJlLtsZqWlZLqiPh6Ax5B5uN-qwnizDj6OufiH8t0z7CQa3AQ4RzJvyVhDdS-fpluxG5IW4676Ost4BY60ro2Tsl9YDk-QNq6S5C-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":427032,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=427032","url_meta":{"origin":461104,"position":1},"title":"Miliband to \u2018miss net zero targets unless he spends extra \u00a375bn\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/19\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Only \u00a375 billion! \u00a375 billion, I would remind people, is more than \u00a32700 for every household in the country.","rel":"","context":"In \"Energy Secretary Ed Miliband\"","block_context":{"text":"Energy Secretary Ed Miliband","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=energy-secretary-ed-miliband"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0net-zero-istock-1190148959.jpg?fit=1200%2C761&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0net-zero-istock-1190148959.jpg?fit=1200%2C761&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0net-zero-istock-1190148959.jpg?fit=1200%2C761&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0net-zero-istock-1190148959.jpg?fit=1200%2C761&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0net-zero-istock-1190148959.jpg?fit=1200%2C761&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":277326,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=277326","url_meta":{"origin":461104,"position":2},"title":"Poland files lawsuit against key EU climate\u00a0policies","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/05\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Poland objects to being bounced into net-zero style policies against its will, so the EU\u2019s climate dogma will get tested in court. 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