{"id":460646,"date":"2026-08-05T10:33:29","date_gmt":"2026-08-05T17:33:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=460646"},"modified":"2026-08-05T10:33:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-05T17:33:31","slug":"are-the-recent-northwest-wildfires-a-sign-of-global-warming-the-science-says-no","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=460646","title":{"rendered":"Are the Recent Northwest Wildfires a Sign of Global Warming? The Science Says No"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Guest Contributor<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Editor\u2019s Note:<\/strong> As usual, the media has been on overdrive trying to link summer wildfires to climate change. Recently, Climate Realism took on two media outlets that tried to link smoke from Canadian wildfires to climate change: Wrong, Wisconsin Examiner and Investigative Post, Canadian Wildfire Smoke Is Not Proof of Climate Change.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this guest essay, Cliff Mass takes on similar claims made by the Seattle Times<\/a>. That is just one of many media articles in the past few weeks<\/a> that have attempted to link climate and wildfires not just in North America, but in Europe as well. In almost every case, the media fails to pay attention to important scientific details, and sidesteps reporting on the historical numbers that show wildfires are not increasing in frequency or coverage. The media is ignoring reality, preferring instead to irresponsibly promote a false climate crisis narrative.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog <\/a>By Cliff Mass, Ph.D.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

During the last few weeks, a series of wildfires have occurred over the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s satellite imagery shows where the fires were burning (orange dots), with smoke plumes quite evident. Most of these fires began in grass\/range vegetation.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In mid-June, there were a few grass\/range fires in the Columbia Basin (see image below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There has been drumbeat in the media that the wildfires were the result of, or significantly enhanced by, global warming\/climate change due to increasing greenhouse gases such as CO2.  <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, a story from the Seattle Times Climate Lab<\/a> was full of demonstrably false claims (such as claims that wildfires are occurring ahead of schedule due to global warming).<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In this blog, I will provide the facts and demonstrate that the global warming connection with the current fires contradicts current scientific understanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fire Ignition<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fires during the first half of summer were either human-initiated or caused by lightning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 Human ignition obviously is not related to increasing greenhouse gases, and neither is lightning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, I examined this issue with colleagues at the Washington State Climatologist Office, examining the potential for lightning using state-of-the-science regional climate models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The results were clear: under global warming, there are no increases in lightning activity for Washington State (see sample graphic below for Ross Lake in the WA Cascades)<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Mid-summer is the lightning season in the Cascades and eastern Washington, as noted by the lightning climatology below. Nothing unusual.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

n short, we can say definitively that fire initiation <\/strong>in our region has nothing to do with global warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fuels<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then there are the claims that a lack of snowpack or prematurely dried fuels were important in the fires this summer, with both due to global warming.  This is demonstrably false.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A map of the fires this year (below) shows that nearly all occurred over grass\/rangeland or started in grass\/rangeland and then spread into terrain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because the fires started at lower elevations, the below-normal snowpack of the last year had no impact on these fires.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Even at one higher-elevation fire (Little Giant), the fire started in an open area of a previous burn with lots of grass and downed trees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A key point is that the range\/grass areas were already dry, as would be expected this time of the year, even without any global warming. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their moisture content was NEAR NORMAL before the fires.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Want proof?  The US Forest Service summarizes the fuel moisture for various regions of the Northwest (see below)<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Consider region 10, which includes many of the fires.  The 100-hour fuel moisture (small vegetation) has been near normal (the gray shaded area), so was the ERC (energy release component) of the fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In summary, any claims that human-caused global warming contributed to the recent Northwest wildfires are demonstrably false.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lightning ignited fuels of normal dryness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is something that has radically increased the chances of wildfires east of the Cascade crest:<\/strong>  the invasion of highly flammable invasive grasses, such as cheatgrass.  A map of the \u201cexotic\u201d grasses is shown below.   You won\u2019t hear about this in certain media and by some advocacy groups.   But the increase of these grasses during the past half-century has greatly enhanced the flammability of the landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During the last few weeks, a series of wildfires have occurred over the region.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s satellite imagery shows where the fires were burning (orange dots), with smoke plumes quite evident. Most of these fires began in grass\/range vegetation.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":460648,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"During the last few weeks, a series of wildfires have occurred over the region.\n\nToday's satellite imagery shows where the fires were burning (orange dots), with smoke plumes quite evident. Most of these fires began in grass\/range vegetation.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818087,691844490,691844488,691844487,691844489],"class_list":["post-460646","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-global-warming","tag-ross-lake-in-the-wa-cascades","tag-seattle-times-climate-lab","tag-summer-wildfires","tag-washington-state-climatologist-office","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1VPM","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":262230,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262230","url_meta":{"origin":460646,"position":0},"title":"Unraveling the Enigma: Canadian Wildfires, a Stroke of Misfortune","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/15\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The weather conditions in Quebec preceding the wildfire event were largely normal, and the high pressure over southern Canada, responsible for the warming, has no proven association with climate change.","rel":"","context":"In \"Canadian wildfires\"","block_context":{"text":"Canadian wildfires","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=canadian-wildfires"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0prothomalo-english_2023-06_21ff7ab1-e53a-4240-83da-d71ac73b0c63_CANADA_WILDFIRES_FORESTRY.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0prothomalo-english_2023-06_21ff7ab1-e53a-4240-83da-d71ac73b0c63_CANADA_WILDFIRES_FORESTRY.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0prothomalo-english_2023-06_21ff7ab1-e53a-4240-83da-d71ac73b0c63_CANADA_WILDFIRES_FORESTRY.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0prothomalo-english_2023-06_21ff7ab1-e53a-4240-83da-d71ac73b0c63_CANADA_WILDFIRES_FORESTRY.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0prothomalo-english_2023-06_21ff7ab1-e53a-4240-83da-d71ac73b0c63_CANADA_WILDFIRES_FORESTRY.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":401747,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=401747","url_meta":{"origin":460646,"position":1},"title":"No, Al Jazeera, Climate Change Is Resulting in More Air Pollution from Wildfires","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/12\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Al Jazeera posted an article titled \u201cClimate-change-driven wildfires increasing air pollution across globe: UN,\u201d which claims that wildfires are becoming more frequent due to climate change, and so air pollution from their smoke is as well. This is false and it\u2019s telling that they framed it the way they did.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Air Pollution\"","block_context":{"text":"Air Pollution","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=air-pollution"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQPFIYp_9mvA4Z8DZWaJayg-kfzOkAjldLQPG2AajXrW_U-0q-N7fkMkm9uJsQB3QHPyXM_CyBlSPnh9e1_edLhDnF1jH0sR8fvtTmCbIuS4mfMdB4N9XlwAJK-aNitIosO0HOJmsnITOnl9mUKi1iT6rNDp3A-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQPFIYp_9mvA4Z8DZWaJayg-kfzOkAjldLQPG2AajXrW_U-0q-N7fkMkm9uJsQB3QHPyXM_CyBlSPnh9e1_edLhDnF1jH0sR8fvtTmCbIuS4mfMdB4N9XlwAJK-aNitIosO0HOJmsnITOnl9mUKi1iT6rNDp3A-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQPFIYp_9mvA4Z8DZWaJayg-kfzOkAjldLQPG2AajXrW_U-0q-N7fkMkm9uJsQB3QHPyXM_CyBlSPnh9e1_edLhDnF1jH0sR8fvtTmCbIuS4mfMdB4N9XlwAJK-aNitIosO0HOJmsnITOnl9mUKi1iT6rNDp3A-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQPFIYp_9mvA4Z8DZWaJayg-kfzOkAjldLQPG2AajXrW_U-0q-N7fkMkm9uJsQB3QHPyXM_CyBlSPnh9e1_edLhDnF1jH0sR8fvtTmCbIuS4mfMdB4N9XlwAJK-aNitIosO0HOJmsnITOnl9mUKi1iT6rNDp3A-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/0AQPFIYp_9mvA4Z8DZWaJayg-kfzOkAjldLQPG2AajXrW_U-0q-N7fkMkm9uJsQB3QHPyXM_CyBlSPnh9e1_edLhDnF1jH0sR8fvtTmCbIuS4mfMdB4N9XlwAJK-aNitIosO0HOJmsnITOnl9mUKi1iT6rNDp3A-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":272027,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272027","url_meta":{"origin":460646,"position":2},"title":"Right, Wall Street Journal, Wildfires Are Declining as Climate Changes","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Globally, the number and scope of wildfires have fallen sharply from earlier decades and centuries.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/02048px-Woolsey_Fire_-_tree_ridge_in_flames_20181119-PB-008.jpg?fit=1200%2C741&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/02048px-Woolsey_Fire_-_tree_ridge_in_flames_20181119-PB-008.jpg?fit=1200%2C741&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/02048px-Woolsey_Fire_-_tree_ridge_in_flames_20181119-PB-008.jpg?fit=1200%2C741&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/02048px-Woolsey_Fire_-_tree_ridge_in_flames_20181119-PB-008.jpg?fit=1200%2C741&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/02048px-Woolsey_Fire_-_tree_ridge_in_flames_20181119-PB-008.jpg?fit=1200%2C741&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":413504,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413504","url_meta":{"origin":460646,"position":3},"title":"SPACE.com Swallows Lies that Climate Change Is Making Wildfires Worse, It Isn\u2019t","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/16\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"SPACE.com ran a story claiming that 2024\/2025\u2019s wildfires are proof that climate change is making wildfires larger and more severe. 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Year\u2013Met Office Says Global Warming Has Made Them\u00a0Worse!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/18\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Met Office are no longer a serious, scientific organisation, but a political one:","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMF2RC5Jjji6Dch8PzY9wqxn3ftNQ_aF3yvJAIvmBTDh4pwINZnWSYWX8C_NV-wmkmLV7wy9TQFYmjMP5g8qHYDqbddPY38n64DIGhAT3j8F8Yc1p1AUYClmitVw-HUn9hQhjugba7wX8OJVoy_xC9OjBKQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMF2RC5Jjji6Dch8PzY9wqxn3ftNQ_aF3yvJAIvmBTDh4pwINZnWSYWX8C_NV-wmkmLV7wy9TQFYmjMP5g8qHYDqbddPY38n64DIGhAT3j8F8Yc1p1AUYClmitVw-HUn9hQhjugba7wX8OJVoy_xC9OjBKQ-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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Fires the Result of Climate Change?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/24\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"During the last few weeks, large fires have initiated and grown over northern Alberta, resulting in massive smoke plumes (see the image below from one week ago).\u00a0 \u00a0Here in Washington State, we experienced a few days of smoke aloft from these fires last week.","rel":"","context":"In \"Alberta fires\"","block_context":{"text":"Alberta fires","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=alberta-fires"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Alberta-wildfires.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00Alberta-wildfires.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, 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