{"id":459194,"date":"2026-07-30T14:21:30","date_gmt":"2026-07-30T21:21:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=459194"},"modified":"2026-07-30T14:21:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-30T21:21:32","slug":"volcanoes-not-just-chance-explosive-eruptions-drove-centuries-of-holocene-cooling-and-glacial-advances","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=459194","title":{"rendered":"Volcanoes, Not Just Chance: Explosive Eruptions Drove Centuries of Holocene Cooling and Glacial Advances"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"485\" data-attachment-id=\"459196\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=459196\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Volcanoes-Not-Just-Chance-Explosive-Eruptions-Drove-Centuries-of-Holocene-Cooling-and-Glacial-Advances.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1168,784\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0 Volcanoes Not Just Chance Explosive Eruptions Drove Centuries of Holocene Cooling and Glacial Advances\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Volcanoes-Not-Just-Chance-Explosive-Eruptions-Drove-Centuries-of-Holocene-Cooling-and-Glacial-Advances.jpg?fit=723%2C485&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Volcanoes-Not-Just-Chance-Explosive-Eruptions-Drove-Centuries-of-Holocene-Cooling-and-Glacial-Advances.jpg?resize=723%2C485&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-459196\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Volcanoes-Not-Just-Chance-Explosive-Eruptions-Drove-Centuries-of-Holocene-Cooling-and-Glacial-Advances.jpg?resize=1024%2C687&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Volcanoes-Not-Just-Chance-Explosive-Eruptions-Drove-Centuries-of-Holocene-Cooling-and-Glacial-Advances.jpg?resize=300%2C201&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Volcanoes-Not-Just-Chance-Explosive-Eruptions-Drove-Centuries-of-Holocene-Cooling-and-Glacial-Advances.jpg?resize=768%2C516&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Volcanoes-Not-Just-Chance-Explosive-Eruptions-Drove-Centuries-of-Holocene-Cooling-and-Glacial-Advances.jpg?resize=640%2C430&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Volcanoes-Not-Just-Chance-Explosive-Eruptions-Drove-Centuries-of-Holocene-Cooling-and-Glacial-Advances.jpg?w=1168&amp;ssl=1 1168w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>Pacific Ring of Fire<\/strong> has hosted clusters of powerful eruptions capable of driving or <strong>amplifying centuries-long cooling periods<\/strong>, though the effects are usually hemispheric (stronger in the Northern Hemisphere) rather than perfectly uniform<strong> global cooling<\/strong>. This is supported by <strong>paleoclimate evidence<\/strong>, <strong>ice cores, glacial records, and modeling.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Ring of Fire is a <strong>~40,000 km horseshoe of subduction zones<\/strong> with <strong>highly explosive stratovolcanoes<\/strong> (e.g., Cascades, Andes, Japan, Philippines, Indonesia). These produce silica-rich magma that traps volatiles, leading to powerful Plinian eruptions effective at injecting<strong> sulfur dioxide (SO\u2082) high into the stratosphere<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Key advantages for climate impact:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Many are extratropical \u2192 aerosols can stay concentrated in one hemisphere, enhancing regional forcing (up to ~80% stronger Northern Hemisphere summer cooling per unit sulfur than some tropical eruptions in models).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Clusters or flare-ups \u2192 repeated injections prevent full recovery, triggering feedbacks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Evidence for Multi-Century Cooling<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Holocene glacial advances (last 12,000 years):<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A 2026 Nature Communications study found &gt;80% coincided (within dating uncertainty) with large Northern Hemisphere eruptions. Feedbacks like sea-ice expansion,<strong> AMOC weakening<\/strong>, and circulation shifts sustained cooling and ice growth far beyond aerosol lifetimes. Monte Carlo tests rule out chance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Circum-Pacific flare-ups:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Eocene-Oligocene boundary (~34 Ma) cooling and Antarctic ice-sheet growth<\/strong> linked to heightened arc volcanism releasing sulfur aerosols and fertilizing oceans. Miocene examples (e.g., Columbia River Basalts\/Wapshilla Ridge) show massive SO\u2082 output equivalent to Tambora-scale events for years, coinciding with cooling pulses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Common Era examples:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>536\u2013660 CE (Late Antique Little Ice Age): <\/strong>Cluster including likely high-latitude\/Ring of Fire-influenced events \u2192 extreme NH summer cooling, frost-damaged trees, societal impacts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>13th\u201319th centuries (Little Ice Age phases):<\/strong> Samalas (1257, Indonesia), plus Cascades and other Pacific events contributed to glacier advances and cold decades.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Mechanisms sustaining centuries of influence:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Initial radiative forcing<\/strong> \u2014 Sulfate aerosols reflect sunlight (negative forcing of several W\/m\u00b2 for large events).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ocean\u2013cryosphere feedbacks<\/strong> \u2014 Cooling expands sea ice \u2192 higher albedo + reduced ocean heat release \u2192 persistent cold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Circulation changes<\/strong> \u2014 Altered jet streams, weakened monsoons, or<strong> AMOC slowdown<\/strong> propagate effects.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Carbon cycle interactions<\/strong> \u2014 In some large igneous provinces, sulfur cooling can overlay CO\u2082 warming from metamorphism, creating &#8220;cooling spikes&#8221; of several Kelvin lasting centuries.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Skeptical Considerations and Limits<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Not every eruption qualifies:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many Ring of Fire events are too small, too low in sulfur, or inject below the stratosphere. Effects decay quickly without clusters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Dating and attribution challenges: <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Proxies (tree rings, ice cores, moraines) have uncertainties. Some cold periods have multiple possible drivers (solar minima, ocean variability). Models and reconstructions sometimes disagree on magnitude.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Hemispheric bias:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Southern Hemisphere impacts are often weaker due to less land, different circulation, and aerosol distribution. &#8220;Cooled Earth&#8221; is more accurately &#8220;strong NH cooling with global ripples.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Counterexamples and recovery:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Earth has rebounded from much larger events (e.g., supervolcanoes). Anthropogenic greenhouse gases now dwarf typical volcanic forcing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Magnitude:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A single Tambora-like event cools ~0.5\u20131\u00b0C for a few years. True centuries-long effects require clusters + feedbacks. Extreme &#8220;volcanic winter&#8221; scenarios (e.g., Toba) are debated but show multi-decadal rather than millennial direct cooling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Historical Examples<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA, ~536\u2013660 CE):<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Triggered by a cluster including a major 536 CE eruption (likely Northern Hemisphere extratropical) and ~540 CE Ilopango (tropical). Extreme summer cooling, frost rings in trees, and societal disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Little Ice Age (LIA, especially onset ~13th century and later phases):<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Series of eruptions (e.g., 1257 Samalas, 1815 Tambora, plus others) contributed to cooling, glacier advances, and sea-ice expansion. Volcanic clusters in the 13th, 15th, and early 19th centuries played key roles alongside solar variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Holocene cold events (last ~12,000 years):<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A 2026 study found &gt;80% of glacial advances coincided with large Northern Hemisphere eruptions (statistically significant). Feedbacks (sea ice, ocean heat content) sustained cooling for centuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Older examples include potential links around the Eocene-Oligocene boundary or other flare-ups in circum-Pacific arcs.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ring of Fire Relevance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Ring of Fire hosts many explosive stratovolcanoes capable of large sulfur injections. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While not every eruption causes global cooling (depends on magnitude, sulfur content, injection height, and season), clusters or very large events do. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Modern monitoring shows lower risk of civilization-ending events soon, but a repeat of Tambora-scale or larger could cause multi-year crop failures and economic shocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A 2026 study published in Nature Communications (led by researchers including Alice Paine from the University of Basel) provides strong evidence linking large volcanic eruptions to many centennial-scale cold events and glacial advances during the Holocene (the past ~12,000 years).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Evidence for volcanic forcing of Holocene cold events<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The 2026 Nature Communications paper &#8220;Evidence for volcanic forcing of Holocene cold events&#8221;<\/strong> (Paine et al.) is a significant contribution that strengthens the case for explosive volcanism as a major driver of centennial-scale cooling and glacial advances during the Holocene (~11,700 years ago to present). It moves beyond correlation to propose plausible physical mechanisms with statistical rigor. Here is a deeper, critical examination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Core Methodology and Results<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Data integration:<\/strong> The team compiled independent records of:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Explosive volcanism (tephra, ice-core sulfate).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Glacial dynamics (moraine dating for advances).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Climate proxies (e.g., temperature reconstructions, sea-ice indicators, ocean circulation).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Statistical test:<\/strong> They used Monte Carlo simulations to assess whether the temporal overlap between large eruptions (M \u2265 6 or 7) and glacial advances was random. It was not\u2014<strong>&gt;80% of advances aligned within dating uncertainty of at least one major Northern Hemisphere eruption<\/strong>, significant at p &lt; 0.01.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Key pattern:<\/strong> Exceptionally large eruptions (M \u2265 7) showed particularly strong correspondence. This supports volcanism as a trigger rather than a mere coincidence.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Holocene was not a uniformly stable warm period; it featured repeated cold excursions. The study argues many were volcanically initiated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Deeper Mechanisms: Beyond Simple Aerosol Cooling<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Single eruptions produce short-lived cooling (1\u20133 years from stratospheric sulfate aerosols reflecting sunlight). Sustained centennial effects require <strong>amplifying feedbacks:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Sea-ice\/albedo feedback: <\/strong>Initial cooling expands Arctic sea ice \u2192 more sunlight reflected \u2192 further cooling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Ocean circulation:<\/strong> Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) reduces poleward heat transport, sustaining high-latitude cold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Atmospheric shifts:<\/strong> Southward displacement of mid-latitude storm tracks and tropical rain belts, leading to regional drying\/wetting patterns that affect glaciers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Duration:<\/strong> These create &#8220;regime shifts&#8221; where the climate system lingers in a colder state even after aerosols dissipate. Modeling supports this for clustered or very large events.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Ring of Fire relevance:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Many Holocene large eruptions were from circum-Pacific arcs. Their extratropical location enhances Northern Hemisphere efficacy (aerosols confined, stronger summer cooling). Earlier flare-ups (e.g., late Eocene) show similar patterns on longer timescales.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Strengths of the Evidence<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Multi-proxy convergence:<\/strong> Aligns with ice-core sulfate spikes, tree-ring frost\/blue rings (e.g., 536 CE event), and historical cold periods (LALIA, LIA phases).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Causal plausibility:<\/strong> Matches known physics of volcanic forcing + Earth-system feedbacks. Consistent with model experiments showing prolonged responses from volcanic clusters.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Quantification:<\/strong> Focus on large-magnitude events filters noise; statistical non-randomness is compelling.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Skeptical Limitations and Open Questions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Dating uncertainties:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Moraines and eruption dates have error bars. &#8220;Within uncertainty&#8221; allows wiggle room, though Monte Carlo helps address this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Causation vs. contribution:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Volcanism often clusters with low solar activity or ocean variability. The study positions it as a trigger that can be amplified by internal variability, not the sole cause in every case.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Southern Hemisphere:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Weaker or less consistent signals due to geography and aerosol transport.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Magnitude variability:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not all M7+ eruptions produce equal climate response (depends on sulfur yield, injection height, season, latitude). Some &#8220;miss&#8221; or have minimal long-term impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Model-proxy gaps: <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Climate models sometimes under- or over-estimate persistence; real-world complexity (e.g., exact feedback strengths) remains challenging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Counterexamples:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Some cold intervals lack clear volcanic triggers, and recovery was the norm\u2014suggesting thresholds must be crossed for centuries-long effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Broader Implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This work fits a growing consensus that volcanism was a dominant external forcing on Holocene climate variability, helping explain why the epoch had repeated cold snaps despite overall interglacial warmth. It complements studies on the LIA, LALIA, and earlier transitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the future: A modern cluster of Ring of Fire-style eruptions could cause temporary global cooling (offsetting some warming) but with devastating side effects\u2014crop failures, disrupted monsoons, and economic shocks\u2014lasting years to decades. The probability is low for civilization-scale events, but not zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The paper is open-access (check Nature Communications, May 2026). It builds on prior work (Sigl, B\u00fcntgen, Miller, etc.) while adding robust statistics and a focus on glacial evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Journal information:<\/strong>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/journals\/nature-communications\/\">Nature Communications<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Provided:<\/strong>&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/partners\/swiss-national-science-foundation\/\">Swiss National Science Foundation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-026-73492-4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">10.1038\/s41467-026-73492-4<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Authors:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-026-73492-4#auth-Alice_R_-Paine-Aff1\">Alice R. Paine<\/a>,&nbsp;<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-026-73492-4#auth-James_U__L_-Baldini-Aff2\">James U. L. Baldini<\/a>,&nbsp;<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-026-73492-4#auth-Charlie_L_-Rex-Aff3\">Charlie L. Rex<\/a>,&nbsp;<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-026-73492-4#auth-Michael-Sigl-Aff4-Aff5\">Michael Sigl<\/a>,&nbsp;<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-026-73492-4#auth-Francesco_S__R_-Pausata-Aff6\">Francesco S. R. Pausata<\/a>&nbsp;&amp;&nbsp;<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-026-73492-4#auth-Richard_J_-Brown-Aff2\">Richard J. Brown<\/a>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">During the Holocene, the climatic stability of the northern hemisphere was intermittently disrupted by centennial-scale cooling events, whose origins remain unclear. Explosive volcanism is a plausible trigger, yet its potential to drive longer-term (centennial-to-millennial) perturbations remains underexplored. Here, we compile records of explosive volcanism, atmospheric sulphate, climate variability, and glacial dynamics over the past ~12,000 years to test the temporal correspondence between major eruptions and abrupt cooling events, and assess mechanisms linking volcanic forcing to prolonged climatic shifts. Over 80% of Holocene glacial advances occurred within chronological uncertainty of at least one large (M\u2009\u2265\u20097) eruption in the northern hemisphere. Monte Carlo simulations confirm that this relationship is non-random (p\u2009&lt;\u20090.01). Combined with evidence for sea ice expansion, Atlantic Ocean circulation weakening, and southward tropical rain belt displacement, our results suggest that volcanic impacts can persist well beyond aerosol lifetimes, emphasizing the need to consider dynamical feedbacks in Earth system responses to eruptions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Custers of large volcanic eruptions\u2014particularly in the Pacific Ring of Fire (which includes many subduction-zone volcanoes around the Pacific)\u2014have been linked in scientific studies to periods of sustained global or hemispheric cooling lasting decades to centuries. <\/p>\n<p>This occurs mainly through injection of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, forming reflective sulfate aerosols that reduce incoming sunlight (aerosol radiative forcing).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":459196,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691831968,691844348,691825962,691818192,691832009,691844347],"class_list":["post-459194","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-aerosol-cooling","tag-amoc-weakening","tag-climatology","tag-holocene","tag-pacific-ring-of-fire","tag-sulfur-dioxide-so","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Vsm","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":362241,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362241","url_meta":{"origin":459194,"position":0},"title":"7000 Year Old Trees Uncovered High Up In The\u00a0Rockies","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/15\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A melting patch of ice in the Rockies is uncovering trees that were growing 7000 years ago","rel":"","context":"In \"climatic variability\"","block_context":{"text":"climatic variability","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climatic-variability"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0pnas.2412162121fig01.jpg?fit=1200%2C886&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0pnas.2412162121fig01.jpg?fit=1200%2C886&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0pnas.2412162121fig01.jpg?fit=1200%2C886&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0pnas.2412162121fig01.jpg?fit=1200%2C886&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0pnas.2412162121fig01.jpg?fit=1200%2C886&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":318547,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=318547","url_meta":{"origin":459194,"position":1},"title":"Antarctica Is Colder, Icier Now Than Any Time In 5000 Years. The Last Warm Period Was 1000 Years Ago.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/17\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"More evidence emerges that Antarctica has undergone rapid glacier and sea ice expansion in recent centuries, in line with the long-term and recent Antarctic cooling trend.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctica\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctica","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctica"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Antarctica-Landscape-T.Branson-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Antarctica-Landscape-T.Branson-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Antarctica-Landscape-T.Branson-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Antarctica-Landscape-T.Branson-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/04\/0Antarctica-Landscape-T.Branson-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C801&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":442079,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442079","url_meta":{"origin":459194,"position":2},"title":"\u201cExtinct\u201d Was an Illusion: This Greek Volcano Quietly Grew a Massive Magma Reservoir for Over 100,000 Years","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/30\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Researchers from ETH Zurich and collaborators reconstructed ~700,000 years of volcanic history at Methana, a peninsula volcano in the Saronic Gulf. It's part of the South Aegean Volcanic Arc, formed by the subduction of the African plate beneath the Aegean microplate.","rel":"","context":"In \"ETH Zurich\"","block_context":{"text":"ETH Zurich","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=eth-zurich"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Extinct-Was-an-Illusion-This-Greek-Volcano-Quietly-Grew-a-Massive-Magma-Reservoir-for-Over-100000-Years.jpeg?fit=680%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Extinct-Was-an-Illusion-This-Greek-Volcano-Quietly-Grew-a-Massive-Magma-Reservoir-for-Over-100000-Years.jpeg?fit=680%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Extinct-Was-an-Illusion-This-Greek-Volcano-Quietly-Grew-a-Massive-Magma-Reservoir-for-Over-100000-Years.jpeg?fit=680%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":309151,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=309151","url_meta":{"origin":459194,"position":3},"title":"The Holocene Climatic Optimum and the \u201cpre-industrial\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/16\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The \u201cpre-industrial\u201d according to the IPCC in a footnote on page 43 of AR6 WGI is prior to 1750 for radiative forcings and before 1850 for temperature. Both dates are within the period commonly described as the\u00a0Little Ice Age.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0251A_2.jpg?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0251A_2.jpg?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0251A_2.jpg?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0251A_2.jpg?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0251A_2.jpg?fit=1200%2C768&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":464792,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=464792","url_meta":{"origin":459194,"position":4},"title":"Volcano Myths Unraveled: Why Plumes Aren\u2019t \u201cSmoke\u201d and Yellowstone Isn\u2019t About to End Civilization","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/22\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Volcanic plumes are not \u201csmoke,\u201d and Yellowstone is not an imminent civilization-ending catastrophe. Sensational claims often recycle old images, misattribute earthquakes or cracks elsewhere, invent animal \u201cevacuations,\u201d or fabricate drilling accidents. Official monitoring data (publicly available via the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory) consistently show normal conditions.","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201cPacific Ring of Fire\u201d\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201cPacific Ring of Fire\u201d","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=pacific-ring-of-fire-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-Volcano-Myths-Unraveled.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-Volcano-Myths-Unraveled.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-Volcano-Myths-Unraveled.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-Volcano-Myths-Unraveled.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/0-Volcano-Myths-Unraveled.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":445734,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=445734","url_meta":{"origin":459194,"position":5},"title":"Ice Cores Pin Precise Date to Ancient Oregon Eruption: Ash from 686 CE Newberry Blast Reached Greenland, Illuminating 7th-Century Volcanism","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/21\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Researchers analyzed Greenland ice cores and identified ash particles (cryptotephra) from the Newberry Pumice eruption of Newberry Volcano in Oregon, USA. By matching the geochemical \"fingerprint\" (chemical composition) of tiny ash fragments (~0.02 mm) in the ice to deposits near the volcano, they precisely dated the eruption to around 686\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"\"Big Obsidian\"\"","block_context":{"text":"\"Big Obsidian\"","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=big-obsidian"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-Ice-Cores-Pin-Precise-Date-to-Ancient-Oregon-Eruption-Ash-from-686-CE-Newberry-Blast-Reached-Greenland-Illuminating-7th-Century-Volcanism.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-Ice-Cores-Pin-Precise-Date-to-Ancient-Oregon-Eruption-Ash-from-686-CE-Newberry-Blast-Reached-Greenland-Illuminating-7th-Century-Volcanism.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-Ice-Cores-Pin-Precise-Date-to-Ancient-Oregon-Eruption-Ash-from-686-CE-Newberry-Blast-Reached-Greenland-Illuminating-7th-Century-Volcanism.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-Ice-Cores-Pin-Precise-Date-to-Ancient-Oregon-Eruption-Ash-from-686-CE-Newberry-Blast-Reached-Greenland-Illuminating-7th-Century-Volcanism.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-Ice-Cores-Pin-Precise-Date-to-Ancient-Oregon-Eruption-Ash-from-686-CE-Newberry-Blast-Reached-Greenland-Illuminating-7th-Century-Volcanism.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Volcanoes-Not-Just-Chance-Explosive-Eruptions-Drove-Centuries-of-Holocene-Cooling-and-Glacial-Advances.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/459194","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=459194"}],"version-history":[{"count":48,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/459194\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":459244,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/459194\/revisions\/459244"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/459196"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=459194"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=459194"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=459194"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}