{"id":457605,"date":"2026-07-24T12:14:04","date_gmt":"2026-07-24T19:14:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=457605"},"modified":"2026-07-24T12:14:06","modified_gmt":"2026-07-24T19:14:06","slug":"outlook-pacific-el-nino-and-atlantic-nina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=457605","title":{"rendered":"Outlook: Pacific El Ni\u00f1o and Atlantic Ni\u00f1a"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A map of global sea surface temperature anomalies on July 15, 2026, showing a significant region of below-average sea surface temperatures off the western coast of Africa. \u00a9 NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations, arrow added using Canva<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s been much ado about a strong El Ni\u00f1o, but less is heard about the appearance of a sister anomaly Atlantic Ni\u00f1a.  What happens to summer storm activity when both are on stage?  Ben Cost does a good job of pulling together the implications in his NY Post article El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s sister La Ni\u00f1a has arrived in the Atlantic \u2014 here\u2019s what that means for summer weather<\/strong><\/a>.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The extremely strong El Ni\u00f1o brewing<\/strong> in the South Pacific isn\u2019t the only unusual weather pattern on the horizon.  Meteorological experts warn that the oceanic anomaly\u2019s sister \u2014  Atlantic Ni\u00f1a<\/strong> \u2014 could be rearing its head<\/strong> in the tropical part of The Pond, potentially helping curtail the number of storms we\u2019ll see this season, according to Severe Weather Europe.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
A map of global sea surface temperature anomalies on July 15, 2026, shows a significant region of below-average sea surface temperatures off the western coast of Africa.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This climate pattern is similar to La Ni\u00f1a<\/strong> \u2014 the cold phase of the El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) \u2014 in that both cause temperature plunges<\/strong> below average. The difference is that this big chill affects the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean<\/strong> instead of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, potentially altering wind and rainfall across the tropics, per Climate.org.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
These two anomalies appear to work on opposite poles (warm vs. cold), but they are actually perfectly aligned in their atmospheric impact.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Should surface temps on the Atlantic Ocean hover at 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit below average<\/strong> for at least two overlapping seasons, this could mark just the sixth Atlantic Ni\u00f1a in the last four decades.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sibling anomaly El Ni\u00f1o,<\/strong> meanwhile, causes preternaturally warm temperatures on the Pacific Ocean\u2019s surface<\/strong> with forecasters predicting that this particular version could be up to 6.5 degrees warmer<\/a> than average, potentially<\/strong> making it the strongest El Ni\u00f1o on record.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite being polar opposites on the thermometer, these temp-affecting twins are \u201cperfectly aligned in their atmospheric impact,\u201d long-range forecaster Andrej Flis wrote for Severe Weather Europe.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means that both will help curb hurricanes \u2014 but in different ways.<\/strong> El Ni\u00f1o produces high wind shear and sinking dry conditions over the Atlantic and Caribbean<\/strong> \u2014 where wind shear is already the second highest on record for July \u2014 potentially nipping the storm systems in the bud, according to Weather.com.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This prophylactic effect is evident in the dramatic reduction in the number of forecasted storms,<\/strong> which currently totals just nine<\/strong>, according to Colorado State University\u2019s tropical meteorology project team<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of these, only four are projected to become hurricanes, while just one will attain Category 3 status or stronger, marking five fewer storms and three fewer hurricanes than an average season.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s sister system, meanwhile, literally throws cold water on cyclones. Cooler ocean temps in the Atlantic prevent the heat and moisture buildup<\/strong> required for thunderstorm buildup, according to The Conversation.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will be interesting if these sibling systems have double the preventive impact come hurricane season.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Despite the forecast covering the August-January period, we are already observing this in July. If we look at the seasonal forecast, the latest data clearly shows a large area of below-normal tropical activity across the MDR and the Atlantic region. At the same time, we see enhanced activity in the Pacific, aided by the low pressure and rising air associated with El Ni\u00f1o.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

So far, Tropical Storm Arthur<\/strong> was the only named storm<\/strong> to form in the Atlantic Basin before July 17<\/strong> \u2014 one fewer than during and average year, Gizmodo reported.<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

And while it caused flash flooding and tornadoes to lash the south, this so-called superstorm fizzled<\/strong> before long.   Meanwhile, there are no signs of an Atlantic hurricane<\/strong>; the first one usually<\/strong> forms by August 11.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pacific El Ni\u00f1o: Strong and strengthening, likely to become very strong this fall\/winter. <\/p>\n

Atlantic Ni\u00f1a: Rare cold event emerging in the equatorial Atlantic. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":457628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"Pacific El Ni\u00f1o: Strong and strengthening, likely to become very strong this fall\/winter.\n\nAtlantic Ni\u00f1a: Rare cold event emerging in the equatorial Atlantic.","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691834694,691832990,691844239,691821329,691844240],"class_list":["post-457605","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-el-nino-southern-oscillation-enso-5","tag-el-nino-la-nina-2","tag-global-weather-patterns","tag-hurricane-season","tag-number-of-forecasted-storms","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/0-Outlook-Pacific-El-Nino-and-Atlantic-Nina.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1V2J","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":303496,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=303496","url_meta":{"origin":457605,"position":0},"title":"The Coming Collapse Of El Nino and The Ramifications on The Atlantic Basin Tropical Season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/20\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Above-normal sea surface temperatures continue this month across most of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, but there are signs that this El Nino episode which began about a year ago will flip to La Nina conditions (colder-than-normal) by the early part of the 2024 summer season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2024 Atlantic Basin\"","block_context":{"text":"2024 Atlantic Basin","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2024-atlantic-basin"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":392991,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=392991","url_meta":{"origin":457605,"position":1},"title":"Climate Oscillations 11: Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index or\u00a0ONI\u00a0is NOAA\u2019s primarily indicator for monitoring the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the critical Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. It is a 3-month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, defined as 5\u00b0N-5\u00b0S and 120\u00b0W-170\u00b0W. Figure 1 shows the ONI as computed from\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Oscillations\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Oscillations","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-oscillations"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQM1yAaYgc1bunnkL8sOya59GvZHjD_7bkZrzDUL-2lGvUsGLIqQqF5EzSbr9km0FznsGchR2yu1uYa27QNY9M5TCyvKhSKOrqmybFoQYq7emW8CIFtdzadrzmD3h9CLnJ9z-eskLA-ycD0KPsxFPlqIEgUS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQM1yAaYgc1bunnkL8sOya59GvZHjD_7bkZrzDUL-2lGvUsGLIqQqF5EzSbr9km0FznsGchR2yu1uYa27QNY9M5TCyvKhSKOrqmybFoQYq7emW8CIFtdzadrzmD3h9CLnJ9z-eskLA-ycD0KPsxFPlqIEgUS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQM1yAaYgc1bunnkL8sOya59GvZHjD_7bkZrzDUL-2lGvUsGLIqQqF5EzSbr9km0FznsGchR2yu1uYa27QNY9M5TCyvKhSKOrqmybFoQYq7emW8CIFtdzadrzmD3h9CLnJ9z-eskLA-ycD0KPsxFPlqIEgUS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQM1yAaYgc1bunnkL8sOya59GvZHjD_7bkZrzDUL-2lGvUsGLIqQqF5EzSbr9km0FznsGchR2yu1uYa27QNY9M5TCyvKhSKOrqmybFoQYq7emW8CIFtdzadrzmD3h9CLnJ9z-eskLA-ycD0KPsxFPlqIEgUS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQM1yAaYgc1bunnkL8sOya59GvZHjD_7bkZrzDUL-2lGvUsGLIqQqF5EzSbr9km0FznsGchR2yu1uYa27QNY9M5TCyvKhSKOrqmybFoQYq7emW8CIFtdzadrzmD3h9CLnJ9z-eskLA-ycD0KPsxFPlqIEgUS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":378776,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=378776","url_meta":{"origin":457605,"position":2},"title":"The Atmosphere is Now in Neutral","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/19\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Midway through May is a good time to check on the status of El Nino\/La Nina, since its status becomes clearer at this time of the year and will have a major impact on the weather of next winter.","rel":"","context":"In \"El Nino\/La Nina\"","block_context":{"text":"El Nino\/La Nina","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-la-nina-3"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/03039064.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/03039064.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/03039064.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/03039064.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/03039064.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":301633,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301633","url_meta":{"origin":457605,"position":3},"title":"Strong El Nino Conditions Prevails at The End of January 2024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/13\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The classification of El Ni\u00f1o events, including the strength labels, is somewhat subjective and can vary among meteorological and climate agencies. There isn\u2019t a strict rule defining the specific number of consecutive Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) values that must be 2.0\u00b0C or above to categorize an El Ni\u00f1o event as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate model\"","block_context":{"text":"climate model","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-model"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":336072,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=336072","url_meta":{"origin":457605,"position":4},"title":"A Tale of 2 Opposing Ocean Warming Narratives!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"There are 2 narratives claiming to explain most of the observed ocean warming. 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The second suggests the El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO2)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO2)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-sun-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-sun-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-sun-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-sun-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0-sun-over-the-ocean.jpeg?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":340750,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340750","url_meta":{"origin":457605,"position":5},"title":"The Atlantic Is Cooling at a Mysteriously Fast Rate After Record\u00a0Warmth","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/26\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"So they do not have a clue why the Atlantic has suddenly got colder, but they think they know that global warming made it hotter in the first place, even though there is no physical for the claim that a slightly warmer atmosphere can make any measurable difference to ocean\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Ocean\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Ocean","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-ocean"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0H66M7P-1-e1559894595422-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0H66M7P-1-e1559894595422-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0H66M7P-1-e1559894595422-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0H66M7P-1-e1559894595422-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0H66M7P-1-e1559894595422-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C606&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/457605","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=457605"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/457605\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":457631,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/457605\/revisions\/457631"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/457628"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=457605"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=457605"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=457605"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}