{"id":455285,"date":"2026-07-13T04:12:55","date_gmt":"2026-07-13T11:12:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=455285"},"modified":"2026-07-13T04:12:56","modified_gmt":"2026-07-13T11:12:56","slug":"new-study-nasas-models-wildly-underestimate-the-capacity-of-clouds-to-alter-solar-radiation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=455285","title":{"rendered":"New Study: NASA\u2019s Models Wildly Underestimate The Capacity Of Clouds To Alter Solar Radiation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From NoTrickZone<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Kenneth Richard<\/a> <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today\u2019s climate models are so inaccurate they must be improved a hundredfold just to detect a CO2 signal in climate change.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Though clouds \u201care the largest moderator of Earth\u2019s radiation budget and their absorption of solar radiation directly influence our understanding of climate change,\u201d NASA\u2019s models of the cloud capacity to alter solar radiation diverge from satellite observations (MERRA2) by 18.8 W\/m\u00b2 (Fu et al., 2026<\/a><\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201c\u2026the NASA MERRA2 modeled value [of the cloud capacity to absorb solar energy] is less than one-quarter of the observed.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Image Source: Fu et al., 2026<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

To put this in perspective, the reported models-versus-observations discrepancy (18.8 W\/m\u00b2) is 94 times larger than 10 years of accumulated clear-sky-only CO2 impacts (0.2 W\/m\u00b2 per Feldman et al., 2015<\/a><\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NASA has previously admitted<\/a><\/strong> cloud impacts are so large and uncertain models \u201cmust be improved about a hundredfold in accuracy\u201d to detect a human or CO2 impact on climate.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Image Source: NASA<\/strong><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Today\u2019s climate models are so inaccurate they must be improved a hundredfold just to detect a CO2 signal in climate change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":455297,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819127,691844041,691844043,691844042,691844044,691820367],"class_list":["post-455285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-sensitivity","tag-cloud-absorption","tag-cloud-climate-influence","tag-earths-radiation-budget","tag-satellite-observations-merra2","tag-solar-radiation","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Urj","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":262437,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=262437","url_meta":{"origin":455285,"position":0},"title":"limate \u2026\u00a0Continue readingNew Study Shows We Are Now \ud835\udc4a\ud835\udc5c\ud835\udc5f\ud835\udc60\ud835\udc52 At Modeling Cloud Climate Effects Than We Were In 1984","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/16\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists have determined the error in calculating effects of shortwave cloud forcing on climate spans 82-132 W\/m\u00b2 since the mid-1990s. Total clear-sky climate forcing linked to CO2 since 1750 is 1.8 W\/m\u00b2. 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It offers yet another reminder that so-called \u201csettled science\u201d in climate modeling is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate modeling\"","block_context":{"text":"climate modeling","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-modeling"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OIG1.1C.-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OIG1.1C.-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OIG1.1C.-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OIG1.1C.-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":420555,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=420555","url_meta":{"origin":455285,"position":2},"title":"Modeling Error in Estimating How Clouds Affect Climate Is 8700% Larger Than Alleged CO2 Forcing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/08\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"CO2\u2019s role in climate change is too small to detect in error-ridden attribution measurements.","rel":"","context":"In \"air and sea surface temperature\"","block_context":{"text":"air and sea surface temperature","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=air-and-sea-surface-temperature"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQOMBdBPsI5jEFbELrrIAVX4wPYfGDJ6vlOvq14V9PVEZb4QzQK07-AP95Z0tZAeOkkpTTrukD8ivcWaNghI-FFgFqnsI0WEQiTyJVM2NRjaOAXT_kKsvFv6cM97nKLS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C601&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQOMBdBPsI5jEFbELrrIAVX4wPYfGDJ6vlOvq14V9PVEZb4QzQK07-AP95Z0tZAeOkkpTTrukD8ivcWaNghI-FFgFqnsI0WEQiTyJVM2NRjaOAXT_kKsvFv6cM97nKLS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C601&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQOMBdBPsI5jEFbELrrIAVX4wPYfGDJ6vlOvq14V9PVEZb4QzQK07-AP95Z0tZAeOkkpTTrukD8ivcWaNghI-FFgFqnsI0WEQiTyJVM2NRjaOAXT_kKsvFv6cM97nKLS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C601&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQOMBdBPsI5jEFbELrrIAVX4wPYfGDJ6vlOvq14V9PVEZb4QzQK07-AP95Z0tZAeOkkpTTrukD8ivcWaNghI-FFgFqnsI0WEQiTyJVM2NRjaOAXT_kKsvFv6cM97nKLS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C601&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQOMBdBPsI5jEFbELrrIAVX4wPYfGDJ6vlOvq14V9PVEZb4QzQK07-AP95Z0tZAeOkkpTTrukD8ivcWaNghI-FFgFqnsI0WEQiTyJVM2NRjaOAXT_kKsvFv6cM97nKLS-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C601&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":414780,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=414780","url_meta":{"origin":455285,"position":3},"title":"A World Without Air","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/26\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Here\u2019s a thought experiment. 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Climate Back\u00a0Radiation","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In connection with the greenhouse\u00a0effect,\u00a0the\u00a0second law of Thermodynamics\u00a0is particularly\u00a0interesting. \u00a0There are various equivalent\u00a0formulations for the second law of\u00a0thermodynamics which states that thermal\u00a0energy cannot be completely converted\u00a0into other forms of energy. \u00a0Rudolf\u00a0Clausius\u00a0was the first to formulate the\u00a0second\u00a0law in the form that heat does not flow\u00a0spontaneously from cold to hot\u00a0bodies.\u00a0\u00a0Later in 1865\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0bg-05.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0bg-05.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0bg-05.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0bg-05.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0bg-05.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":322648,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=322648","url_meta":{"origin":455285,"position":5},"title":"\u00a03 Physicists Use Experimental Evidence To Show CO2\u2019s Capacity To Absorb Radiation Has Saturated","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/25\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Adding CO2 to the atmosphere can have no significant climatic effect when rising above the threshold of about 300 ppm. 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