{"id":452505,"date":"2026-06-27T05:33:41","date_gmt":"2026-06-27T12:33:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=452505"},"modified":"2026-06-27T05:33:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-27T12:33:43","slug":"lies-damn-lies-and-climate-stats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=452505","title":{"rendered":"Lies, Damn Lies, and Climate Stats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Part I<\/strong>

Robert Vislocky, Ph.D.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past few years I\u2019ve been perusing around various climate change debate threads on social media. Unfortunately, all too frequently I see the same flawed (but popular) metrics used to support the narrative that certain forms of severe weather are becoming significantly worse due to global warming. In this series, I\u2019ll review some of these misleading or deceptive metrics and offer a critique on why they are flawed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With hurricane season officially underway, I\u2019ll kick this off this series by dissecting a measure known as the proportion of major tropical cyclones (TCs) to the total number of TCs (hereafter referred to as \u201cthe Ratio\u201d). Several authors have used similar metrics in the past to assess the trend in the proportion of intense to total TCs. For example, see the following article links for Webster, Holland, Curry, and Chang (2005), and Klotzbach and Landsea (2015):<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Changes in tropical cyclone number, duration, and intensity in a warming environment – PubMed<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Extremely Intense Hurricanes: Revisiting Webster et al. (2005) after 10 Years in: Journal of Climate Volume 28 Issue 19 (2015)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However the one most cited lately as evidence of an anthropogenic signal in hurricane intensity is a 2020 PNAS article by Kossin et al. titled \u201cGlobal increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades\u201d. Thus it is this article which will be the main focus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades | PNAS<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the 2020 article the authors showed that from 1980 to 2017 the Ratio increased by a statistically significant amount which the authors later conflate to mean that there is an increasing trend in TC intensity. Figure 1 below is a graph of the Ratio out to 2025 that I produced using TC summary data from Colorado State University\u2019s real-time tropical meteorology project. Although the authors in the PNAS article used a different dataset (i.e., 6-hour wind speed fixes inferred from a special satellite dataset), the percent changes in the Ratio from 1980 to 2017 are similar between the PNAS study and Figure 1 below.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 1.  Data from Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Sciences.
https:\/\/tropical.atmos.colostate.edu\/Realtime\/index.php?arch&loc=global
<\/a>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Of course, upon publication of the PNAS study the media as always jumps on the climate bandwagon. For example, the New York Times story below says that \u201cClimate Change is Making Hurricanes Stronger\u201d and cites the details from the PNAS article:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Change Is Making Hurricanes Stronger, Researchers Find – The New York Times<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA also claimed a \u201csignificant global increase in hurricane intensity over a four decade period\u201d as a result of the PNAS study:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Link Between Earth\u2019s Heat and Hurricane Strength Grows | News | National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what\u2019s the problem? Simply put, the proportion of major TCs to total TCs is NOT a valid measure of absolute hurricane intensity. It is a relative measure with a moving denominator. It would be like trying to equate a high relative humidity with a high dew point, the two don\u2019t necessarily go hand-in-hand. To show this flaw using an extremely simplified example, consider a season in which there was only one major hurricane and only one total hurricane. The Ratio metric would yield a value of 1, which is the highest value possible supposedly indicating a very intense hurricane season. Yet, by any reasonable measure a season with only one hurricane would be an extremely benign hurricane season.

This is not just a hypothetical example either as glaring discrepancies can be shown over an entire year at the global level using actual data (see table below). As one example, 2018 had 43% more TCs and 43% more major TCs than 2024. It also had a 75% higher ACE value. Yet according to the flawed Ratio statistic, both years were identical!! As another example, 1990 had 53% more total TCs and the same number of major TCs than 2009. Plus 1990 had a 53% higher ACE value than 2009. Yet the Ratio in 2009 was 53% higher than 1990 which is an absolute joke. There are numerous other discrepancies like those apparent in the annual TC data. The bottom line is the Ratio is not a suitable metric for measuring absolute TC intensity or computing the trends thereof, as it can increase with decreasing numbers of total TCs. Despite its flaw the Ratio is frequently referenced whenever a climate scientist or activist needs to cite a trend that shows hurricanes are becoming more intense (mostly because other indicators like global ACE in the post satellite era, or US landfalling hurricanes over the past century, show no significant trend).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Year     # Total TCs     # Major TCs       ACE       Ratio<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2018           60                    33                1105       0.55
2024           42                    23                  630       0.55

Year     # Total TCs     # Major TCs       ACE       Ratio<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1990           58                    21                 930        0.36
2009           38                    21                 607        0.55   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data courtesy of Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Sciences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Global Statistics compared with climatology<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another interesting observation is that although the authors of the PNAS article were able to show a statistically significant trend in the Ratio statistic from 1980 to 2017, there has been no significant trend over the last 31 years from 1994 to 2025 (see Figure 2 below).<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 2.  Data from Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Sciences.
https:\/\/tropical.atmos.colostate.edu\/Realtime\/index.php?arch&loc=global<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

H\/T to Charles Rotter<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[editor\u2019s note. I identified an error in the original submission~cr]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As one example, 2018 had 43% more TCs and 43% more major TCs than 2024. It also had a 75% higher ACE value. Yet according to the flawed Ratio statistic, both years were identical!! As another example, 1990 had 53% more total TCs and the same number of major TCs than 2009. Plus 1990 had a 53% higher ACE value than 2009. Yet the Ratio in 2009 was 53% higher than 1990 which is an absolute joke.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":452525,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818104,691843831,691843832,691824972],"class_list":["post-452505","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-hurricanes","tag-major-tropical-cyclones-tcs","tag-total-number-of-tcs","tag-us-landfalling-hurricanes","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/AQMIwxGbi4N2_NIfI_rO2MHyysSFwtgiwrPO5h5xZRtBepuHQrMVXNFyOMCSqy93gjzGKP2_VnjRXIeyX74iLigmeZ7mZV7U-Hp0oeJHusDWE6AQtckvYio7t838lKmr.png?fit=1440%2C810&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1TIt","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":335906,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=335906","url_meta":{"origin":452505,"position":0},"title":"Beware how government-sponsored media reports cherry-picked hurricane extremes to push a climate crisis.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"As my local KQED now ignorantly pushes, hurricane Beryl became more dangerous due to climate change. KQED is one of a thousand-plus stations supported by your tax money via the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. CPB receives federal funding from Congress and distributes the vast majority of funds to more than\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0GRrgcU7aUAA7PWs.jpeg?fit=1082%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":300580,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300580","url_meta":{"origin":452505,"position":1},"title":"Hurricanes 2023: Andrew Dessler\u2019s Hollow Alarm","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The\u00a02023 Atlantic hurricane season: 20 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes versus the \u201caverage\u201d of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Last year tied 1933 as the fourth most active\u2026. So where is the greenhouse signal in all this?","rel":"","context":"In \"Andrew Dessler\"","block_context":{"text":"Andrew Dessler","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=andrew-dessler"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0sattelite-NOAA-2020-hurricane.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0sattelite-NOAA-2020-hurricane.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0sattelite-NOAA-2020-hurricane.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0sattelite-NOAA-2020-hurricane.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0sattelite-NOAA-2020-hurricane.jpg?fit=1200%2C733&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":373519,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=373519","url_meta":{"origin":452505,"position":2},"title":"Rolling Stone: President Trump Falsely Claims Global Warming is Good","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"But, but, devastating storms\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0lomborg-climate-deaths-chart.webp?fit=1200%2C924&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0lomborg-climate-deaths-chart.webp?fit=1200%2C924&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0lomborg-climate-deaths-chart.webp?fit=1200%2C924&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0lomborg-climate-deaths-chart.webp?fit=1200%2C924&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/0lomborg-climate-deaths-chart.webp?fit=1200%2C924&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":329806,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=329806","url_meta":{"origin":452505,"position":3},"title":"Climate Research Paper Finds Tropical Storm Variability Linked Mostly To Oceanic Cycles","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s the oceans, stupid (not CO2)!","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-the-oceans.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-the-oceans.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-the-oceans.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-the-oceans.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/0-the-oceans.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":284259,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=284259","url_meta":{"origin":452505,"position":4},"title":"Observed increases in North Atlantic tropical cyclone peak intensification rates","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/20\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"More climate junk science made for climate alarmist and fans of climate propaganda. From Watts Up With That? This new paper in Nature Scientific Reports claims to identify a trend in hurricane intensification so significant that it\u2019s utterly absurd that hurricane forecasters and modelers wouldn\u2019t have noticed and identified it\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/0Hurricane-Image.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":421742,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421742","url_meta":{"origin":452505,"position":5},"title":"Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/17\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Back in 2012,\u00a0Jessica Weinkle,\u00a0Ryan Maue, and I published the\u00a0first peer-reviewed paper\u00a0presenting a time series of global tropical cyclone landfalls of hurricane strength.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate hype\"","block_context":{"text":"climate hype","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-hype"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/0Light_Fades_on_a_Powerful_Hurricane_Melissa_CIRA_2025-10-26.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452505","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=452505"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452505\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":452527,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452505\/revisions\/452527"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/452525"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=452505"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=452505"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=452505"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}