{"id":451210,"date":"2026-06-19T13:01:19","date_gmt":"2026-06-19T20:01:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=451210"},"modified":"2026-06-19T13:01:21","modified_gmt":"2026-06-19T20:01:21","slug":"do-los-ninos-cause-climatic-cooling","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=451210","title":{"rendered":"Do Los Ni\u00f1os cause climatic cooling?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Andy May Petrophysicist<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Andy May<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve seen a lot of news stories about an upcoming El Ni\u00f1o, that may turn into a so-called \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o over the next year. This will affect our weather for a year or two, but what is the climatic effect of this weather feature, if any? Here we examine the history of warm ENSO events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Los Ni\u00f1os warm Earth\u2019s atmosphere for a few years because they cause excess thermal energy (heat) to be expelled from the topical Pacific Ocean and the heat is then circulated around the planet via atmospheric circulation, especially in the Northern Hemisphere where most of us live. But this is warm weather, not climate. Climate is normally defined as the average weather over a period of more than 30 years. Over 30 years, Los Ni\u00f1os are a cooling event since nearly all the heat they transfer to the atmosphere is eventually radiated to space. Very little of the heat released from the oceans during an El Ni\u00f1o is returned to the oceans because downwelling infrared radiation from the atmosphere cannot penetrate the ocean surface<\/a> (Wong & Minnett, 2018). Only solar radiation can penetrate to the deeper ocean and significantly warm it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many Los Ni\u00f1os are very powerful weather features and can be traced back in time with lake sediment proxies in Ecuador as has been done by Christopher Moy and colleagues at Syracuse University (Moy et al., 2002). Figure 1 shows Moy\u2019s El Ni\u00f1o proxy record and Rosenthal\u2019s Makassar Strait proxy temperature record<\/a> since 0AD. Moy\u2019s sediment record from the Laguna Pallcacocha drainage basin is well located to record warm El Ni\u00f1o events since these events cause anomalous sea surface temperatures off the coast of Ecuador which initiate strong and widespread convection in the area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1. The Moy warm El Ni\u00f1o record in blue (left scale) and Rosenthal\u2019s North Pacific temperature record in orange (right scale) overlain. Data sources: (Moy et al., 2002) & (Rosenthal et al., 2013).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The important point is that during the Medieval Warm Period Los Ni\u00f1os were rare and did not become common until the Little Ice Age began around 1200 AD and then declined as the Little Ice Age progressed and the world became colder. They have since become common again as the world has warmed, as shown in figure 2 which is a plot of the NOAA ERSST Ni\u00f1o 3.4 Index where Los Ni\u00f1os are positive and Las Ni\u00f1as are negative values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 2. The NOAA ERSST v5 ENSO index from the end of the Little Ice Age (~1850) to the present. Data source: Climate Explorer<\/a>. In this plot, an El Ni\u00f1o is positive (0.5 or greater)<\/a> and a La Ni\u00f1a is negative (-0.5 or less).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Los Ni\u00f1os were extremely rare during the Holocene Climatic Optimum<\/a>, only increasing in number as the Neoglacial<\/a> began as shown in figure 3. The paucity of Los Ni\u00f1os during the Holocene Climatic Optimum is confirmed by numerous geological proxies from around the Pacific basin as discussed in Moy et al. (Moy et al., 2002).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 3. The Vinther Greenland area temperature and Moy\u2019s warm ENSO proxy (number of events each 100 years).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The paucity of Los Ni\u00f1os during the Holocene Climatic Optimum has been connected to Earth\u2019s orbital cycles by Clement et al. (Clement et al., 2000). A discussion of the effects of orbital cycles on climate can be seen here<\/a>. During the Holocene Climatic Optimum, Northern Hemisphere summer insolation was maximal. It appears that when this happens Los Ni\u00f1os are suppressed. Since the Neoglacial began, around 3800 BC, Northern Hemisphere summer insolation has declined significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figures 1 to 3 suggest that a warm stable climate is associated with very few Los Ni\u00f1os, but when Earth\u2019s climate is beginning to cool, as at the beginning of the Neoglacial Period or the early cooling years of the Little Ice Age, there are more Los Ni\u00f1os. Los Ni\u00f1os were very common as we cooled into the depths of the Little Ice Age (~1750 or so) and then as we began to warm coming out of the deepest period of the Little Ice Age the number of Los Ni\u00f1os dropped off. We are currently at the end of Modern Solar Maximum or the Modern Warm Period, and we are seeing more Los Ni\u00f1os, suggesting the world is beginning to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Works Cited<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Clement, A., Seager, R., & Cane, M. (2000). Suppression of El Ni\u00f1o during the mid-Holocene by changes in Earth\u2019s orbit. Paleooceanography, 15<\/em>(6), 731-737. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/1999PA000466<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moy, C., Seltzer, G., & Rodbell, D. (2002). Variability of El Ni\u00f1o\/Southern Oscillation activity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch. Nature, 420<\/em>, 162-165. Retrieved from https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/nature01194<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rosenthal, Y., Linsley, B., & Oppo, D. (2013, November 1). Pacific Ocean Heat Content During the Past 10,000 years. Science<\/em>. Retrieved from http:\/\/science.sciencemag.org\/content\/342\/6158\/617<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vinther, B., Buchardt, S., Clausen, H., Dahl-Jensen, Johnsen, Fisher, . . . Svensson. (2009, September). Holocene thinning of the Greenland ice sheet. Nature, 461<\/em>. Retrieved from https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nature08355<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wong, E. W., & Minnett, P. J. (2018). The Response of the Ocean Thermal Skin Layer to Variations in Incident Infrared Radiation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123<\/em>(4). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/2017JC013351<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We\u2019ve seen a lot of news stories about an upcoming El Ni\u00f1o, that may turn into a so-called \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o over the next year. This will affect our weather for a year or two, but what is the climatic effect of this weather feature, if any? Here we examine the history of warm ENSO events.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":451211,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819287,691834380,691835208,691835209,691841536,691820968,691820367,691833027],"class_list":["post-451210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-el-nino-2","tag-holocene-climatic-optimum","tag-little-ice-age-1300-1850","tag-medieval-warm-period-900-1300","tag-neoglacial-period","tag-sea-surface-temperatures-sst","tag-solar-radiation","tag-weather-and-climate","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-word-image-13275-1.webp?fit=1430%2C800&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1TnA","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":362953,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362953","url_meta":{"origin":451210,"position":0},"title":"Alarmist Scientist Daniel Swain Demonizes \u201cNatural Climate Variability\u201d calling it \u201cHydroclimate Whiplash\u201d!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/22\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Daniel Swain is a good meteorologist but being a prot\u00e9g\u00e9 of infamous climate alarmists like Noah Diffenbaugh and Michael Mann, he frequently spreads climate alarmists\u2019 propaganda. 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