{"id":450083,"date":"2026-06-13T09:42:30","date_gmt":"2026-06-13T16:42:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=450083"},"modified":"2026-06-13T09:47:47","modified_gmt":"2026-06-13T16:47:47","slug":"hurricane-update-with-highest-impact-concerns-now-shown","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=450083","title":{"rendered":"Hurricane update with highest impact concerns now shown"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

June, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is an update with more detail on where I think we will have to watch this year for greater-than-average activity, even though overall activity will be below average. These numbers came out on April 6, and they have not changed. I notice other ideas coming out later that were close to where we try to separate our forecast from impact ideas relative to the seasonal averages.  Sometimes, like in 2024, we can see it very early, as we came out on Dec 7, 2023, with that idea. Sometimes, like last year, the area we had wound up missing too far to the west, so the U.S. was left alone for the most part. But we think the field should be upping its level toward an actual forecast that you can look at it and say what was right or wrong as far as impact goes, rather than number games and probabilities. We play because it\u2019s the only game that seems to get attention. Quite frankly, it\u2019s a moot point for many if storms stay well out at sea.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I also refer you to our way of measuring storms, because as NHC acknowledged last year, size matters. There is no way a storm as small as Ida is the same category as a storm as large as Betsy in 1965 for instance, or Harvey vs Carla (1961). Much larger areas of high winds, despite the same wind at the center, means much more impact and power.  I suspect that in the coming years, when GVT and Academia can ensure they receive credit, some form of what we have been pioneering since 2012 will emerge. In the private sector, I have to add value, and this is one way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Power & Impact Scale – 2025 Update<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anyway, here is the latest for CFACT readers that we are showing our clients:<\/p>\n\n\n\n