{"id":449977,"date":"2026-06-12T12:19:46","date_gmt":"2026-06-12T19:19:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=449977"},"modified":"2026-06-12T12:19:48","modified_gmt":"2026-06-12T19:19:48","slug":"geological-co%e2%82%82-emissions-the-knowns-the-unknowns-and-the-hidden-mantle-contribution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=449977","title":{"rendered":"Geological CO\u2082 Emissions: The Knowns, the Unknowns, and the Hidden Mantle Contribution"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The pargasosphere hypothesis<\/strong>, proposed by Istv\u00e1n J. Kov\u00e1cs and colleagues (primarily in their 2021 Global and Planetary Change paper), reframes the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) and related mantle processes around the stability of pargasitic amphibole (a hydrous mineral) in the shallow upper mantle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The “pargasosphere” refers to the region of the upper mantle (typically < ~100 km depth) where pargasite <\/strong>(a type of amphibole) is stable. Even at very low bulk water contents (a few hundred ppm wt. or less), pargasite can form and exert strong control over the rheology (viscosity\/deformation behavior), melting behavior, and physical properties of the shallow mantle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pargasite acts as a “water buffer”: it incorporates hydrogen (as hydroxyl) and can influence the presence of small amounts of partial melt or fluids.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Mechanism for CO\u2082 Degassing (Relevant to the 2026 Paper)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the context of geological CO\u2082 emissions, the hypothesis explains diffuse, non-volcanic mantle-derived CO\u2082 release <\/strong>in intraplate or extensional settings (e.g., the Pannonian Basin) through cooling of the asthenosphere beneath relatively young\/thin lithosphere:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. Cooling Asthenosphere:<\/strong> Beneath young or thinned lithosphere (oceanic or continental extensional basins), the underlying asthenosphere cools gradually. This cooling occurs without active volcanism or nearby magma chambers.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. Incipient Partial Melting and Volatile Behavior:<\/strong> The shallow upper mantle contains trace volatiles (H\u2082O and CO\u2082). As the asthenosphere cools, small fractions (<1 vol%) of H\u2082O- and CO\u2082-bearing basaltic silicate melts or supercritical fluids form or persist. Pargasite stability influences the solidus (melting temperature), keeping conditions near the point where tiny amounts of melt can exist.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. Crystallization and CO\u2082 Enrichment:<\/strong> During cooling and crystallization of these incipient melts:\n
      \n
    • CO\u2082 has low solubility in the crystallizing silicate minerals\/melts under these conditions.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • It becomes concentrated and enriched in the residual fluids, grain boundaries, or fluid inclusions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n
    • Migration and Degassing:<\/strong> These CO\u2082-rich fluids are highly mobile and buoyant. They migrate upward along favorable pathways such as:
      • Lithospheric deformation zonesExtensional structuresFaults or permeable grain networks<\/li><\/ul>This produces measurable diffuse surface CO\u2082 emanations<\/strong> even far from volcanoes. Fluxes can reach levels comparable to quiescent volcanic systems (e.g., 10\u00b3\u201310\u2075 mol km\u207b\u00b2 yr\u207b\u00b9 in the Pannonian Basin examples).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

        The process can operate over millions of years, allowing the lithospheric mantle to accumulate and episodically release large CO\u2082 reservoirs (e.g., estimates of ~10\u00b3 Gt over 10 Myr in studied areas during post-rift thickening and thermal relaxation).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Broader Context in the Hypothesis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

        LAB Formation (Young\/Thin Lithosphere): <\/strong>The pargasite dehydration solidus (~1100\u00b0C) creates a rheological contrast. Above it (shallower, cooler): melt-free, stronger lithosphere. Below it: small amounts of partial melt or fluids make the asthenosphere weaker. This explains geophysical observations (seismic velocity drops, conductivity changes) better than purely dry or thermal models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        MLDs (Old\/Thick Cratons): <\/strong>In colder, thicker lithosphere, pargasite breaks down at higher pressures (~3 GPa, sub-solidus), releasing water-rich fluids that may create mid-lithospheric weak zones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Key Implications<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • It provides a geochemical mechanism for why mantle degassing isn’t limited to volcanic arcs or hotspots.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • It highlights under-sampled intraplate fluxes, relevant to long-term carbon cycle modeling (though it does not challenge modern anthropogenic dominance).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Testable via xenoliths, noble gas\/CO\u2082 isotopic studies, and geophysical imaging in regions like the Pannonian Basin or Vrancea zone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          <\/p>\n\n\n\n

          _____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          On Geological CO2 Emissions
          What we know and what we don\u2019t know about<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          There is a short 2026 commentary\/opinion-style piece (3 pages) by Istv\u00e1n J\u00e1nos Kov\u00e1cs (HUN-REN Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science, Sopron, Hungary) titled “On Geological CO\u2082 Emissions: What we know and what we don\u2019t know about”, published in Science of Climate Change Vol. 6.2, pp. 29\u201331.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The 2026 piece is a concise, pointed commentary (~3 pages) that uses the pargasosphere framework to highlight systemic under-sampling of intraplate, non-volcanic mantle-derived CO\u2082 fluxes<\/strong>. It does not dispute that anthropogenic emissions (~35+ Gt\/yr) dwarf current volcanic estimates (0.18\u20130.44 Gt\/yr), but argues that diffuse geological sources\u2014especially in extensional or post-rift continental settings\u2014represent a poorly quantified \u201cbackground\u201d that matters for long-term carbon cycle models, pre-industrial baselines, and millennial-to-Myr attribution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Refined Mechanism of the Pargasosphere Hypothesis for CO\u2082 Degassing<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          The hypothesis (detailed in Kov\u00e1cs et al., 2021, Global and Planetary Change) centers on pargasitic amphibole (a hydrous Ca-amphibole) as a key phase controlling the shallow upper mantle (< ~100 km, roughly the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary or LAB region) at low water contents (tens to hundreds of ppm wt. H\u2082O).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Key physical-chemical controls:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

            \n
          • Pargasite has a distinctive dehydration solidus<\/strong> (~1100\u00b0C at relevant pressures). This creates a rheological and melting contrast: above the solidus (shallower\/cooler), the mantle is largely melt-free and stronger (lithosphere); near\/below it, trace hydrous phases or incipient melts weaken the asthenosphere.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
          • Even at very low bulk water, pargasite acts as a volatile buffer<\/strong>, incorporating H\u2082O while rejecting much of the CO\u2082 present in the system.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

            CO\u2082 release during cooling\/lithospherization (the core process invoked for intraplate degassing):<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

              \n
            1. In young or thinned lithosphere (e.g., post-rift basins like the Pannonian), hot asthenospheric mantle upwells or resides close to the LAB.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            2. As the system cools and the lithosphere thickens (\u201clithospherization\u201d), asthenospheric peridotite crosses the pargasite stability field. Small fractions of volatile-bearing incipient melt or fluid (<1 vol%) crystallize.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            3. CO\u2082 incompatibility: <\/strong>CO\u2082 has very low solubility in the crystallizing silicates and pargasite. It is strongly partitioned into residual fluids, grain boundaries, or fluid inclusions, becoming enriched.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            4. These buoyant, mobile CO\u2082-rich fluids migrate upward via permeable networks, especially along deformation zones, faults, or extensional structures \u2014 even without active magmatism or nearby volcanoes.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
            5. Result: Diffuse surface emanations with mantle isotopic signatures (e.g., noble gases, C isotopes) at fluxes of 10\u00b3\u201310\u2075 mol km\u207b\u00b2 yr\u207b\u00b9, overlapping quiescent volcanic areas.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

              This process operates over millions of years. In the Bakony\u2013Balaton Highland Volcanic Field (BBHVF)<\/strong>, xenolith data show progressive lithospheric thickening post-rift (~10 Ma to present). One modeled scenario estimates ~10\u00b3 Gt CO\u2082<\/strong> accumulated and potentially available for release over ~10 Myr in that relatively small area (~25\u201340 km scale), depending on density and CO\u2082 concentration assumptions (e.g., ~2000 ppm scenarios).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              This is episodic and tectonically modulated: fluids can be trapped in the growing SCLM (subcontinental lithospheric mantle) and released during later thermal\/tectonic disturbances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

              Strengths and Testable Aspects<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                \n
              • Integrates petrology (xenoliths, mineral stability), geophysics (seismic LAB, conductivity), and geochemistry (fluid inclusions, gas seeps in Pannonian Basin).<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Explains observations of mantle-derived CO\u2082 in \u201cnon-volcanic\u201d or post-volcanic settings better than purely magmatic or metamorphic models.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
              • Supported by recent Pannonian work (e.g., Randazzo et al. 2025 on deep fluid degassing).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

                Limitations and Open Questions (Deeper Critique)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Scale and Global Integration:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Local estimates (Pannonian\/BBHVF) are compelling for that extensional basin, but extrapolating to global intraplate flux is challenging. How many equivalent settings exist? How much overlaps with or is additional to mid-ocean ridge, arc, and plume fluxes?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Modern vs. Geological Relevance:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                The paper explicitly notes this does not <\/strong>change today\u2019s anthropogenic dominance. However, for paleoclimate and carbon cycle models (e.g., over 10\u2074\u201310\u2076 yr), adding a dynamic, tectonically variable intraplate component could shift natural baselines and require re-evaluation of source-sink balances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Quantification Uncertainties:<\/strong> Accumulation rates depend on assumed CO\u2082 contents, densities, and thickening rates. Xenolith sampling may have biases; fluid migration efficiency, trapping, and re-dissolution in the crust add complexity (as noted in the paper with noble gas and C-He systematics).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Broader Context: <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Mainstream carbon cycle literature has long recognized non-volcanic geological CO\u2082 (e.g., Kerrick 2001 reviews), but diffuse intraplate fluxes remain harder to measure than point sources. Kov\u00e1cs\u2019 group emphasizes under-sampling and calls for more fieldwork\/geophysical integration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Overall Assessment:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                This is a specialized, hypothesis-driven contribution from a research group with strong regional data (Pannonian xenoliths and gas studies). It usefully highlights knowledge gaps in deep carbon cycling without overstating impacts on contemporary climate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                The mechanism is mechanistically grounded in mineral physics and petrology, offering a plausible pathway for \u201cinvisible\u201d mantle CO\u2082 release tied to lithospheric evolution. Further validation would come from expanded global xenolith\/gas surveys, better flux measurements in other post-rift basins, and incorporation into coupled geodynamic-carbon models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Kov\u00e1cs (2026) vs. Climate\/Carbon Cycle Models: Key Comparison<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Kov\u00e1cs’ short commentary explicitly critiques current climate-carbon system models<\/strong> (including those used in IPCC assessments) for under-representing or omitting diffuse intraplate geological CO\u2082 fluxes<\/strong>, particularly mantle-derived contributions in non-volcanic or post-volcanic continental settings. He acknowledges that anthropogenic emissions (~35+ Gt CO\u2082\/year) vastly exceed conventional volcanic estimates (0.18\u20130.44 Gt\/year), but argues that gaps in natural geological fluxes matter for long-term (millennial to Myr-scale)<\/strong> carbon cycle dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                What Mainstream Models (e.g., IPCC AR6) Typically Include<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Climate and Earth System Models (ESMs) in CMIP6\/IPCC frameworks treat geological CO\u2082 sources as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Volcanic and magmatic degassing:<\/strong> Included as a relatively small, often quasi-steady background flux (subaerial + submarine\/mid-ocean ridges ~0.3\u20130.4 Gt CO\u2082\/year globally, sometimes with variability for large eruptions). This is part of the long-term “slow” carbon cycle balancing silicate weathering and burial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Other geological sources:<\/strong> Metamorphic decarbonation, hydrothermal, and some tectonic degassing are sometimes parameterized, but with high uncertainty. Diffuse, non-point-source fluxes are harder to incorporate due to sparse global measurements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Focus: <\/strong>Models emphasize fast carbon cycle (atmosphere-land-ocean exchanges) for centennial-scale projections. For paleoclimate and long-term balance, they include volcanic outgassing as a key source, but treat it as relatively smooth or regionally focused (arcs, ridges, hotspots). Intraplate continental degassing is not dynamically resolved at the level of Kov\u00e1cs’ pargasosphere mechanism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Pre-industrial baseline:<\/strong> Often anchored around 1750 or Holocene values, with natural sources assumed in rough steady-state with sinks over recent millennia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Uncertainties in deep-time carbon releases (e.g., PETM) are acknowledged, but modern-era attribution treats natural geological fluxes as negligible compared to human emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Kov\u00e1cs’ Specific Claims on Model Shortcomings<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Underestimation of intraplate fluxes:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Models are “biased toward areas of active volcanism” and lack “robust parameters” for diffuse mantle-derived CO\u2082 from cooling asthenosphere beneath young\/thin lithosphere, lithospheric deformation zones, and extensional settings (e.g., Pannonian Basin fluxes of 10\u00b3\u201310\u2075 mol km\u207b\u00b2 yr\u207b\u00b9, comparable to quiescent volcanoes).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Missing dynamic behavior:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                The pargasosphere mechanism allows CO\u2082 accumulation (~10\u00b3 Gt over ~10 Myr in one studied area like Bakony\u2013Balaton) in the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM), followed by episodic release tied to tectonic\/thermal events. This “dynamic behaviour is almost entirely missing from current climate-carbon system models.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                Consequences:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  \n
                1. Oversimplifies the natural baseline for pre-industrial atmospheric CO\u2082.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
                2. Complicates attribution on millennial+ scales (separating natural vs. anthropogenic).<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

                  Kov\u00e1cs does not claim this overturns modern anthropogenic dominance or short-term (decadal-centennial) model projections. He calls for better constraints to improve long-term models, paleoclimate reconstructions, and geodynamic understanding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Assessment of the Gap<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Scale:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Even if intraplate diffuse fluxes are higher than assumed, global extrapolation from regional data (Pannonian Basin) remains uncertain. Mainstream estimates already include some tectonic\/hydrothermal contributions, and total geological outgassing is still ~1% or less of anthropogenic. Significant upward revision would require widespread evidence across many intraplate regions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Timescale dependence:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  For IPCC-style 21st-century projections, this has minimal impact\u2014models are forced by prescribed emissions scenarios. For deep-time carbon cycle modeling (e.g., Phanerozoic CO\u2082 evolution, PETM analogs), incorporating variable intraplate + pargasosphere-style processes could refine source-sink balances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Strength of critique: <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Kov\u00e1cs highlights a genuine measurement gap (intraplate regions are undersampled). However, mainstream literature (e.g., Deep Carbon Observatory) has been expanding volcanic + geological flux estimates and notes uncertainties. The pargasosphere hypothesis offers a mechanistic explanation testable via xenoliths, gas isotopes, and geophysics, but it is not yet mainstream in global carbon budget models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Bottom line:<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Kov\u00e1cs agrees with models on today’s dominant human role but argues they undersample a variable, tectonically modulated natural geological component. This primarily affects long-term baseline and paleoclimate accuracy rather than invalidating centennial climate projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Published:<\/strong> Science of Climate Change Vol. 6.2, pp. 29\u201331<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  DOI:<\/strong> 10.53234\/scc202603\/20<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Author:<\/strong> Istv\u00e1n J\u00e1nos Kov\u00e1cs<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Abstract<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  Geological CO\u2082 emissions from intraplate regions remain poorly quantified despite their relevance to the long-term carbon cycle. Observations from the Pannonian Basin indicate measurable mantle-derived degassing, highlighting the need for improved constraints on non-volcanic geological CO\u2082 fluxes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

                  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                  The 2026 piece is a concise, pointed commentary (~3 pages) that uses the pargasosphere framework to highlight systemic under-sampling of intraplate, non-volcanic mantle-derived CO\u2082 fluxes. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":449979,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691822734,691843636,691843634,691843632,691843633,691843635],"class_list":["post-449977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-anthropogenic-co-emissions","tag-co-degassing","tag-mantle-derived-co","tag-natural-geological-co-fluxes","tag-pannonian-basin","tag-pargasitic-amphibole","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1T3H","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":435911,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=435911","url_meta":{"origin":449977,"position":0},"title":"Rare\u2019 Crystal Defects in Earth\u2019s Mantle Are Far More Common Than Thought \u2013 And They Help Drive Plate Tectonics","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/31\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"A December 2025 study showing that a specific type of crystal defect in olivine- the main mineral in Earth\u2019s upper mantle- is more common than geologists previously assumed.","rel":"","context":"In \"dislocation creep\"","block_context":{"text":"dislocation creep","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=dislocation-creep"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Rare-Crystal-Defects-in-Earths-Mantle-Are-Far-More-Common-Than-Thought-%E2%80%93-And-They-Help-Drive-Plate-Tectonics.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Rare-Crystal-Defects-in-Earths-Mantle-Are-Far-More-Common-Than-Thought-%E2%80%93-And-They-Help-Drive-Plate-Tectonics.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Rare-Crystal-Defects-in-Earths-Mantle-Are-Far-More-Common-Than-Thought-%E2%80%93-And-They-Help-Drive-Plate-Tectonics.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Rare-Crystal-Defects-in-Earths-Mantle-Are-Far-More-Common-Than-Thought-%E2%80%93-And-They-Help-Drive-Plate-Tectonics.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":443773,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=443773","url_meta":{"origin":449977,"position":1},"title":"Mantle Helium Reveals a New Tectonic Rift Awakening in Southern Africa","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/12\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The East African Rift System (EARS or EAR) is one of the most significant active continental rift zones on Earth. 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