{"id":449725,"date":"2026-06-11T07:59:06","date_gmt":"2026-06-11T14:59:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=449725"},"modified":"2026-06-11T07:59:08","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T14:59:08","slug":"aerosols-can-warm-or-cool-the-climate-it-all-depends-on-timing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=449725","title":{"rendered":"Aerosols Can Warm or Cool the Climate \u2014 It All Depends on Timing"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"485\" data-attachment-id=\"449727\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=449727\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Aerosols-Can-Warm-or-Cool-the-Climate-%E2%80%94-It-All-Depends-on-Timing.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1168,784\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0 Aerosols Can Warm or Cool the Climate \u2014 It All Depends on Timing\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Aerosols-Can-Warm-or-Cool-the-Climate-%E2%80%94-It-All-Depends-on-Timing.jpg?fit=723%2C485&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Aerosols-Can-Warm-or-Cool-the-Climate-%E2%80%94-It-All-Depends-on-Timing.jpg?resize=723%2C485&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-449727\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Aerosols-Can-Warm-or-Cool-the-Climate-%E2%80%94-It-All-Depends-on-Timing.jpg?resize=1024%2C687&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Aerosols-Can-Warm-or-Cool-the-Climate-%E2%80%94-It-All-Depends-on-Timing.jpg?resize=300%2C201&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Aerosols-Can-Warm-or-Cool-the-Climate-%E2%80%94-It-All-Depends-on-Timing.jpg?resize=768%2C516&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Aerosols-Can-Warm-or-Cool-the-Climate-%E2%80%94-It-All-Depends-on-Timing.jpg?resize=640%2C430&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Aerosols-Can-Warm-or-Cool-the-Climate-%E2%80%94-It-All-Depends-on-Timing.jpg?w=1168&amp;ssl=1 1168w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI)<\/strong> are among the most complex and uncertain processes in climate science. Aerosols (tiny particles like sulfates, black carbon, dust, sea salt, or organics) influence cloud formation, microphysics, macrophysics, precipitation, and radiative properties. Clouds, in turn, can process and remove aerosols.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Core Mechanisms<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>1. Twomey Effect (First Indirect Effect \/ Cloud Albedo Effect)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher aerosol concentrations increase the number of <strong>cloud condensation nuclei (CCN)<\/strong>. For a fixed liquid water content (LWC), this leads to:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>More but smaller cloud droplets.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increased cloud optical depth and albedo (brighter clouds that reflect more sunlight \u2192 cooling).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is relatively well-understood and observable (e.g., ship tracks in marine stratocumulus).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>2. Albrecht Effect (Second Indirect Effect \/ Cloud Lifetime Effect)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Smaller droplets reduce collision-coalescence efficiency, suppressing warm rain formation. This can:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Increase cloud lifetime and liquid water path (LWP).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Enhance cloud fraction and coverage.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Result: More persistent reflective clouds \u2192 additional cooling. This is modulated by meteorology (e.g., humidity, stability).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>3. Aerosol Invigoration in Deep Convective Clouds<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In mixed-phase or deep convective systems, aerosols can enhance vertical development:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Smaller droplets are lofted higher before raining out.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>More supercooled water freezes at higher altitudes, releasing extra latent heat.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This can strengthen updrafts, increase cloud-top height, anvil extent, and ice production.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Effects vary:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Can lead to more intense precipitation in some cases or delayed\/suppressed in others.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Depends on aerosol type (e.g., pollution vs. smoke), loading, and environment (wind shear, humidity, stability).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Recent work (including Dagan 2026) highlights<strong> timescale dependence<\/strong> in convective regimes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Transient phase<\/strong> (~first 1\u20132 days after aerosol increase): Rapid microphysical invigoration boosts high-cloud (anvil) fraction \u2192 enhanced longwave trapping \u2192 <strong>positive ERF (warming)<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Equilibrium phase:<\/strong> Upper-tropospheric warming increases static stability, reducing anvil fraction \u2192 <strong>negative ERF (cooling) <\/strong>dominates.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The net effect depends on the ratio of adjustment timescale (\u03c4_adj) to aerosol perturbation timescale (\u03c4_aer). Rapid changes favor transient warming; gradual changes favor equilibrium cooling. Hysteresis can occur in intermediate regimes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>4. Semi-Direct Effect<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Absorbing aerosols<\/strong> (e.g., black carbon) heat the atmosphere, which can:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Increase stability and reduce cloud formation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Evaporate cloud droplets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This often produces a warming (positive forcing) counteracting indirect cooling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>5. Ice-Phase and Mixed-Phase Effects<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Glaciation indirect effect: More ice-nucleating particles (INPs) can accelerate freezing of supercooled droplets, potentially enhancing precipitation efficiency via the ice phase. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Riming indirect effect: Smaller droplets may reduce riming (ice collecting liquid), affecting snow\/graupel formation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Thermodynamic effects: Delayed freezing allows clouds to reach colder temperatures.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>6. Other Adjustments and Feedbacks<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Changes in cloud fraction, thickness, and coverage.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Dynamical responses: Altered circulation, water vapor transport, or large-scale patterns. nature.com<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Meteorological modulation: Effects strengthen or reverse depending on updraft speed, lower-tropospheric stability (LTS), relative humidity, etc.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>There is a new study from researchers at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, led by Prof. Guy Dagan. It was published recently (around June 2026) in Nature Communications.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The study shows that <strong>aerosols<\/strong> (tiny atmospheric particles from pollution, wildfires, dust, sea spray, etc.) can have <strong>opposing effects on the climate depending on the timescale <\/strong>of their influence and how quickly their concentrations change. This challenges simpler assumptions about their net impact and helps explain why aerosol effects remain one of the biggest uncertainties in climate projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Dagan (2026) explores the time-dependent dynamics of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in an idealized radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) framework using high-resolution cloud-resolving simulations (System for Atmospheric Modeling &#8211; SAM).<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It isolates local convective responses and environmental adjustments without large-scale circulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Opposing transient and equilibrium effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>This is the title of a 2026 open-access paper by Guy Dagan (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) published in Nature Communications.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This idealized high-resolution modeling study isolates <strong>timescale-dependent mechanisms<\/strong> in deep convective regimes using the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) in a radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) framework. It avoids large-scale circulation complications to focus on local convective and environmental adjustments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Experimental Setup<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Domain:<\/strong> Horizontally homogeneous, periodic, cloud-resolving grid (resolves deep convection; microphysics parameterized; limited shallow cloud resolution).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Perturbations:<\/strong> Instantaneous jump in aerosol (CCN) from clean (~20 cm\u207b\u00b3) to polluted (~2000 cm\u207b\u00b3), plus ensemble runs from different initial states. Additional experiments with oscillating or gradually changing aerosol concentrations at prescribed periods (\u03c4_aer). <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Key outputs: <\/strong>Time evolution of TOA net radiative flux (\u0394R_net = ERF_ACI proxy), SW\/LW components, cloud properties (LWP, IWP, cloud fraction), thermodynamic profiles, stability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Transient Phase (~first 2 days): Positive ERF_ACI (Warming)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Rapid microphysical invigoration:<\/strong> Higher CCN \u2192 more numerous\/smaller droplets \u2192 delayed warm rain \u2192 more water lofted to freezing levels \u2192 enhanced latent heat release aloft \u2192 stronger updrafts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Macrophysical response:<\/strong> Increased high-cloud (anvil) fraction and ice water path (IWP). This enhances longwave trapping (reduced outgoing LW radiation, positive \u0394R_LW peaking &gt;40 W\/m\u00b2 transiently).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Net effect:<\/strong> Positive transient ERF_ACI \u2248 +9.4 W\/m\u00b2 (ensemble\/time mean). Strong positive LW anomaly partially offset by negative SW (brighter\/more reflective clouds via Twomey + LWP increase).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The initial shortwave response is negative (cooling) due to Twomey effect and LWP increase, but the LW warming dominates the net transient signal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Equilibrium Phase (Longer-term steady state): Negative ERF_ACI (Cooling)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Environmental adjustment:<\/strong> Upper-tropospheric warming from the transient invigoration increases static stability (reduced lapse rate).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Feedback on clouds:<\/strong> Higher stability suppresses vertical development and reduces anvil cloud fraction\/detrainment. This allows more LW escape to space (negative \u0394R_LW).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Net effect:<\/strong> Equilibrium ERF_ACI \u2248 -6.8 W\/m\u00b2. Both SW and LW contribute negatively, with a weaker negative SW than in the transient phase.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Timescale Dependence and Hysteresis<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">he overall time-mean ERF_ACI depends on the ratio <strong>\u03c4_adj \/ \u03c4_aer<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>\u03c4_adj <\/strong>(environmental adjustment timescale): ~days (upper-tropospheric warming and stability response).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>\u03c4_aer <\/strong>(aerosol perturbation timescale): How fast concentrations change (e.g., sudden wildfire vs. gradual emissions).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rapid changes (\u03c4_aer &lt;&lt; \u03c4_adj) \u2192 transient warming dominates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Slow\/gradual changes (\u03c4_aer &gt;&gt; \u03c4_adj) \u2192 equilibrium cooling dominates.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Intermediate regimes:<\/strong> Pronounced hysteresis \u2014 ERF_ACI depends on the history of aerosol loading, not just instantaneous value. Oscillating aerosol experiments demonstrate path dependence. nature.com<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This explains why snapshot observations or models assuming quick equilibrium may misestimate forcing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Broader Implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Reconciles conflicting signals: <\/strong>Helps explain variability in observed ACI; episodic events (wildfires, pollution spikes) may show short-term warming signatures, while sustained changes yield net cooling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Real-world relevance: <\/strong>Declining anthropogenic aerosols (air quality improvements) involve relatively rapid changes, potentially contributing to accelerated near-term warming by reducing the cooling mask and via transient dynamics.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Modeling caveats:<\/strong> Idealized RCE (no large-scale circulation, SST fixed in core runs, parameterized microphysics). Builds on prior Dagan work on circulation adjustments and RCEMIP-ACI intercomparisons. Does not overturn the overall consensus of net negative global ERF_ACI but highlights strong timescale sensitivity in convective regimes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This study elegantly demonstrates &#8220;atmospheric memory&#8221; in ACI: clouds and the environment retain a &#8220;memory&#8221; of recent aerosol history through thermodynamic adjustments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It underscores the need for time-resolved approaches in observations, parameterizations, and projections\u2014especially as aerosol emissions evolve rapidly compared to greenhouse gases. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the full details, the open-access paper (with figures showing temporal evolutions) is available on Nature Communications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Published:<\/strong> Nature Communications<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1038\/s41467-026-72896-6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">10.1038\/s41467-026-72896-6<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Method of Research:<\/strong> Computational simulation\/modeling<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurekalert.org\/releaseguidelines\">Peer-Reviewed Publication<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Author:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-026-72896-6#auth-Guy-Dagan-Aff1\">Guy Dagan<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aerosols influence clouds, and therefore Earth\u2019s radiation budget, through processes that operate across multiple and interacting time scales, making aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) a persistent source of uncertainty in estimates of effective radiative forcing (ERF). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Here we examine the time-dependent response of the local, convection-focused ERF<sub>ACI<\/sub>\u00a0using an ensemble of high-resolution simulations initialized from different atmospheric states and subjected to an instantaneous aerosol perturbation, together with simulations in which aerosol concentration changes with prescribed periods. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We find that the transient ERF<sub>ACI<\/sub>\u00a0during the first \u00a0~\u00a02 days is positive, driven by rapid microphysical invigoration, enhanced high-cloud fraction, and increased longwave trapping. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In contrast, the equilibrium ERF<sub>ACI<\/sub>\u00a0becomes negative as upper-tropospheric warming increases static stability and reduces anvil cloud fraction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As a result, the time-mean forcing depends on the ratio between the environmental adjustment time scale (<em>\u03c4<\/em><sub>adj<\/sub>) and the aerosol-perturbation time scale (<em>\u03c4<\/em><sub>aer<\/sub>). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For intermediate regimes, where\u00a0<em>\u03c4<\/em><sub>aer<\/sub>\u00a0is only moderately longer than\u00a0<em>\u03c4<\/em><sub>adj<\/sub>, the system exhibits pronounced hysteresis: ERF<sub>ACI<\/sub>\u00a0depends not only on the instantaneous aerosol loading but also on its recent history. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These results imply that snapshot-based observational constraints and near-instantaneous-equilibrium convective parameterizations may systematically misestimate ERF<sub>ACI<\/sub>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dagan (2026) explores the time-dependent dynamics of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in an idealized radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) framework using high-resolution cloud-resolving simulations (System for Atmospheric Modeling &#8211; SAM). It isolates local convective responses and environmental adjustments without large-scale circulation. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":449727,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691843605,691824309,691843606,691843609,691843608,691843607],"class_list":["post-449725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-aerosol-cloud-interactions-aci","tag-aerosols","tag-cloud-condensation-nuclei-ccn","tag-radiative-convective-equilibrium-rce","tag-system-for-atmospheric-modeling-sam","tag-timescale-dependent-mechanisms","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Aerosols-Can-Warm-or-Cool-the-Climate-%E2%80%94-It-All-Depends-on-Timing.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1SZD","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":285942,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285942","url_meta":{"origin":449725,"position":0},"title":"New Study: Lower Bound Uncertainty In Aerosol Forcing 10 Times Larger Than 10 Years Of CO2 Forcing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Aerosols, such as airborne wildfire smoke, desert dust, volcanic and pollution particles, affect Earth's climate by reflecting (some also absorb) sunlight. These aerosol particles also play key roles in cloud formation and evolution, further affecting the planet's energy balance. Key Points Aerosol climate forcing uncertainty is virtually undiminished despite two\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Aerosol Forcing\"","block_context":{"text":"Aerosol Forcing","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=aerosol-forcing"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/image.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":312234,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312234","url_meta":{"origin":449725,"position":1},"title":"Uncertainty In Natural Forcing From Wildfire, Dust Aerosols 2 Times Larger Than Total CO2 Forcing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/23\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The radiative effect of natural wildfire aerosol forcing alone can be said to fully cancel out the total accumulated forcing from 170 years of CO2 increases in the current climate.","rel":"","context":"In \"Aerosols\"","block_context":{"text":"Aerosols","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=aerosols"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00FireFueledThunderclouds_1500_crop.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00FireFueledThunderclouds_1500_crop.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00FireFueledThunderclouds_1500_crop.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00FireFueledThunderclouds_1500_crop.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00FireFueledThunderclouds_1500_crop.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":384904,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=384904","url_meta":{"origin":449725,"position":2},"title":"BOMBSHELL: Study Reveals Climate Warming Driven by Receding Cloud Cover","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/25\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The recent paper by Tselioudis et al., titled \u201cContraction of the World\u2019s Storm-Cloud Zones the Primary Contributor to the 21st Century Increase in the Earth\u2019s Sunlight Absorption\u201d, is a fascinating\u2014and deeply problematic\u2014addition to the climate science canon. It offers yet another reminder that so-called \u201csettled science\u201d in climate modeling is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate modeling\"","block_context":{"text":"climate modeling","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-modeling"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OIG1.1C.-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OIG1.1C.-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OIG1.1C.-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/OIG1.1C.-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":325450,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=325450","url_meta":{"origin":449725,"position":3},"title":"Post-1980s Increases In Shortwave Radiation Explains Europe\u2019s Warming Trends Far Better Than CO2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Across Europe there has been a downward trend in cloud and aerosol albedo over the last 40 years, allowing more solar radiation to reach the surface. This \u201cbrightening\u201d effect thus explains recent warming.","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/08-Figure2-1.png?fit=1200%2C893&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/08-Figure2-1.png?fit=1200%2C893&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/08-Figure2-1.png?fit=1200%2C893&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/08-Figure2-1.png?fit=1200%2C893&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/05\/08-Figure2-1.png?fit=1200%2C893&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":354440,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=354440","url_meta":{"origin":449725,"position":4},"title":"Climate Science\u2014Settled Until It\u2019s Not","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/15\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Ah, the marvel of modern climate science. For decades, we\u2019ve been reassured that climate models are finely tuned instruments of prediction, capable of telling us what our planet will look like in a hundred years. But every so often, like a plot twist in a mediocre whodunit, we discover a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"aerosol cooling\"","block_context":{"text":"aerosol cooling","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=aerosol-cooling"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0shutterstock-204022084.webp?fit=1100%2C734&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0shutterstock-204022084.webp?fit=1100%2C734&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0shutterstock-204022084.webp?fit=1100%2C734&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0shutterstock-204022084.webp?fit=1100%2C734&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0shutterstock-204022084.webp?fit=1100%2C734&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":353922,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=353922","url_meta":{"origin":449725,"position":5},"title":"Amazon forests really are cloud machines (and the climate models had no idea)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/11\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201d Until now, isoprene\u2019s ability to form new [cloud seeding] particles have been considered negligible.\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"Amazon forests\"","block_context":{"text":"Amazon forests","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amazon-forests"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screen-Shot-2022-11-23-at-2.webp?fit=1200%2C708&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screen-Shot-2022-11-23-at-2.webp?fit=1200%2C708&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screen-Shot-2022-11-23-at-2.webp?fit=1200%2C708&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screen-Shot-2022-11-23-at-2.webp?fit=1200%2C708&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0Screen-Shot-2022-11-23-at-2.webp?fit=1200%2C708&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449725","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=449725"}],"version-history":[{"count":47,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449725\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":449777,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/449725\/revisions\/449777"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/449727"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=449725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=449725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=449725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}