{"id":448563,"date":"2026-06-04T11:36:45","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T18:36:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=448563"},"modified":"2026-06-04T11:36:48","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T18:36:48","slug":"wrong-daily-mail-the-thwaites-glacier-isnt-about-to-collapse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=448563","title":{"rendered":"Wrong, Daily Mail, The Thwaites Glacier Isn\u2019t About to \u2018COLLAPSE\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Daily Mail (DM) claims in \u201cIs Antarctica\u2019s Doomsday Glacier about to COLLAPSE?<\/a>\u201d that the Thwaites Glacier could lose its ice shelf \u201cthis year\u201d with \u201cdevastating consequences\u201d for global sea levels. This is false. The article\u2019s claims rely on worst-case modeling scenarios while ignoring measured data, physical scale, and the substantial uncertainty surrounding projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DM article warns that Thwaites could \u201ctrigger catastrophic sea-level rise\u201d and suggests its ice shelf is on the verge of imminent failure. That framing creates the impression of a sudden, unstoppable chain reaction. But the researchers actually studying Thwaites distinguish between ongoing retreat and irreversible collapse. Measured basal melting and grounding line retreat are real phenomena. However, projecting full structural collapse on a specific timeline is solely a model forecast built on unverified assumptions and limited observations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scale matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thwaites Glacier contains on the order of 600,000 gigatons of ice. Even if one accepts the article\u2019s cited figure of roughly 200 gigatons of potential ice loss in coming decades, that is a tiny fraction of the total mass. As shown in the graph to the right in the figure below, the total ice loss each year is a nearly undetectable three ten-thousandths of 1 percent (0.0003 percent) of the Antarctic ice mass.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1: Comparison of satellite data for Antarctic ice mass loss. Cumulative ice mass loss on the left and that same data compared to the total mass of ice on the right. Data source: http:\/\/imbie.org<\/a>. Graphs originally by Willis Eshenbach, adapted and annotated by Anthony Watts.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

As Climate at a Glance<\/em> documents in its review of Antarctic ice trends<\/a>, Antarctic ice mass variability is complex and regionally heterogeneous. Short-term losses do not automatically translate into runaway collapse or multi-meter sea-level rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mechanism of melting is also misrepresented in popular coverage. The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration<\/a> deployed instruments beneath the ice shelf and directly measured Circumpolar Deep Water intruding beneath the glacier<\/a>. This relatively warm ocean water, about 1\u00b0C above freezing, melts the ice from below. That is an ocean circulation issue, not an atmospheric temperature issue. Ocean currents bringing subsurface warm water into contact with the ice shelf are a key driver. Blaming \u201cclimate change\u201d misleads about the physical mechanism behind the ongoing decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DM\u2019s tone implies the inevitability of collapse. But measurements show ongoing retreat and thinning consistent with instability in certain sectors. The distinction is crucial. Observations document present behavior. Models extrapolate future behavior under assumed forcings. The leap from measured thinning to \u201ccollapse this year\u201d is undermined by empirical evidence. The media has made similar alarming assertions over the years, and Climate Realism<\/em> has refuted them, for instance, here<\/a>, here<\/a>, and here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Realism<\/em> has repeatedly noted<\/a> that Antarctic ice projections have swung widely over the past decade, with studies alternately warning of imminent collapse, then revising timelines, then highlighting stabilizing feedbacks. A Washington Times<\/em> analysis of recent Thwaites data<\/a> emphasized that while retreat is measurable, the data do not demonstrate a sudden, irreversible tipping point in the near term. Ice-sheet dynamics unfold over decades to centuries, not news headline cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also the matter of broader Antarctic context. Satellite observations show that while parts of West Antarctica have lost mass, other regions, including portions of East Antarctica, have gained mass<\/a>. Net Antarctic trends vary depending on the time window selected. Short baselines can exaggerate perceived acceleration. The mechanism is primarily oceanographic. It involves shifting ocean currents transporting subsurface heat beneath the ice shelf. That distinction is important. The dominant process here is not surface air temperature melting the glacier from above. It is warm seawater interacting with the glacier\u2019s underside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report<\/a> concluded that Antarctic ice loss could contribute significantly to long-term sea-level rise under high-emissions scenarios, yet the same IPCC recently admitted that such scenarios are implausible; in fact, impossible<\/a>. Warnings of collapse shouldn\u2019t be taken seriously when they are based on impossible physical emissions scenarios. There is deep uncertainty in ice-sheet modeling, particularly regarding marine ice-cliff instability and hydrofracturing assumptions. Extreme assumptions drive the projections of near-term collapse. Climate models are not measurements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DM has a long record of using capitalized words like \u201cCOLLAPSE\u201d and \u201cDOOMSDAY\u201d to generate clicks. That is not scientific communication. The difference between a long-term ice retreat and sudden disintegration matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the long-term, ice shelves can thin and retreat, but this is not equal to nor will it trigger an instantaneous sea-level catastrophe. Ocean-driven melt processes are measurable and ongoing, but they are part of a dynamic system influenced by ocean circulation patterns<\/a> that predate modern industrial emissions. Presenting a complex, multidecadal glaciological process as an imminent apocalypse does not inform readers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DM\u2019s story does not represent a sober, accurate analysis of trends in Antarctica, grounded in measured data and testable science. It is climate doomsday click-bait, using dramatic typography.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Daily Mail (DM) claims in \u201cIs Antarctica\u2019s Doomsday Glacier about to COLLAPSE?\u201d that the Thwaites Glacier could lose its ice shelf \u201cthis year\u201d with \u201cdevastating consequences\u201d for global sea levels. This is false. The article\u2019s claims rely on worst-case modeling scenarios while ignoring measured data, physical scale, and the substantial uncertainty surrounding projections.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":448565,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691832692,691843505,691828815,691843176,691841950,691820001,691843079],"class_list":["post-448563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-antarctic-ice-mass","tag-antarcticas-doomsday-glacier","tag-antarcticas-thwaites-glacier","tag-daily-mail-dm","tag-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc-sixth-assessment-report-ar6","tag-satellite-observations","tag-sea-level-rise-projections","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0Screenshot-2026-06-04-194218.png?fit=1227%2C941&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1SGT","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":432757,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=432757","url_meta":{"origin":448563,"position":0},"title":"Wrong, Daily Mail, Antarctica\u2019s Thwaites Glacier Isn\u2019t on the Road to Collapse by 2067","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/20\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Daily Mail (DM) claims in \u201cAntarctica \u2018Doomsday Glacier\u2019 COLLAPSE by 2067\u201d that the Thwaites Glacier is on track for catastrophic failure within decades. This misleading framing gives a false impression of what science actually says about the issue. Observational data show ongoing ice loss and instability, but they do\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Thwaites-Glacier.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Thwaites-Glacier.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Thwaites-Glacier.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0-Thwaites-Glacier.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":260538,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260538","url_meta":{"origin":448563,"position":1},"title":"Don\u2019t Tell the Doomsters and Gloomsters, But Ice Around Antarctica\u2019s Thwaites \u2018Doomsday\u2019 Glacier Was Eight Times Thinner Around 8,000 Years Ago","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Sensational new scientific findings at a site on the West Antarctica ice sheet near the Thwaites \u2019Doomsday\u2019 Glacier indicate that current ice levels are up to eight times thicker than they were around 8,000 years ago.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctica\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctica","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctica"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/013TGZodiaksealtag.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/013TGZodiaksealtag.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/013TGZodiaksealtag.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/013TGZodiaksealtag.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/013TGZodiaksealtag.jpeg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":260293,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=260293","url_meta":{"origin":448563,"position":2},"title":"Thwaites \u2018Doomsday\u2019 Glacier Narrative Collapses\u2026Total Melt Raises Sea Levels 1-2 mm, Not 3048 mm","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/02\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c[N]o numerical modeling work has shown that Thwaites Glacier is currently undergoing an irreversible retreat.\u201d \u2013 Gudmundsson et al., 2023","rel":"","context":"In \"Thwaites glacier\"","block_context":{"text":"Thwaites glacier","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=thwaites-glacier"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-Antarctic.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-Antarctic.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-Antarctic.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-Antarctic.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-Antarctic.jpeg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":330323,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=330323","url_meta":{"origin":448563,"position":3},"title":"Doomsday Glacier 2024 Hot News\u00a0(again)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/27\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate alarmists are known to recycle memes to frighten the public into supporting their agenda. 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The climate news control desk calls the plays and the media fills the air and print with the scare du jour.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic Glacier\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic Glacier","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic-glacier"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00Thwaites_Hero.width-2000.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":259699,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259699","url_meta":{"origin":448563,"position":5},"title":"New Study Destroys \u2018Doomsday Glacier\u2019 Narrative\u2026Today\u2019s Ice 8 Times \ud835\udc47\u210e\ud835\udc56\ud835\udc50\ud835\udc58\ud835\udc52\ud835\udc5f Than Last 8000 Years","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/30\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists have determined there is no measured data to \u201cindicate thicker than present ice after 4ka\u201d at a West Antarctic study site near the Thwaites \u201cDoomsday\u201d Glacier. Any ice melt observed today is thus \u201creversible\u201d\u2026 and natural.","rel":"","context":"In \"Antarctic\"","block_context":{"text":"Antarctic","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=antarctic"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Glacier-Amundsen-Sea-2048x1365-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Glacier-Amundsen-Sea-2048x1365-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Glacier-Amundsen-Sea-2048x1365-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Glacier-Amundsen-Sea-2048x1365-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Glacier-Amundsen-Sea-2048x1365-1.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=448563"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448563\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":448574,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448563\/revisions\/448574"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/448565"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=448563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=448563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=448563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}