{"id":448428,"date":"2026-06-04T06:59:12","date_gmt":"2026-06-04T13:59:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=448428"},"modified":"2026-06-04T06:59:13","modified_gmt":"2026-06-04T13:59:13","slug":"wrong-associated-press-computer-simulations-dont-mean-smashed-heat-records-will-occur","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=448428","title":{"rendered":"Wrong, Associated Press, Computer Simulations Don\u2019t Mean Smashed Heat Records Will Occur"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Associated Press<\/em> (AP)<\/strong> claims in \u201cThink it\u2019s hot now? The next five years will smash records, UN says<\/a>\u201d that Earth is \u201coverwhelmingly likely\u201d to repeatedly surge past the 1.5\u00b0C threshold and experience escalating heatwaves and extreme weather from 2026 to 2030. This is highly misleading if not outright false. The story is built almost entirely on computer model projections<\/strong>, not observed data, and it treats speculative model simulations as though they reflect measured trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AP admits that its claims are \u201cbased on the averaging of about 200 runs of computer simulations <\/strong>using 13 different climate models.\u201d That is the core of the story. Not thermometers. Not weather station records. Not satellite observations. Computer simulations. Climate model outputs are not data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate models are tools<\/strong>, consisting of assumptions about greenhouse gas forcing, feedbacks, ocean heat uptake, and cloud behavior, fed into computers. They are useful for exploring scenarios<\/strong>. But they provide no real evidence that specific outcomes will occur. As documented in Climate at a Glance\u2019s<\/em> analysis of climate models versus measured temperature data<\/a>, model ensembles have historically projected more warming than satellite and balloon observations show. The divergence between model runs and measured lower troposphere temperatures is not trivial. It is persistent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AP story warns of \u201climit-smashing global warming\u201d<\/strong> and ties that to more extreme heatwaves. But heatwaves are not new, nor are they unprecedented in the historical record. The United States experienced severe, prolonged heatwaves in the 1930s during the Dust Bowl era, long before modern emissions levels. Climate at a Glance\u2019s<\/em> review of U.S. heatwaves<\/a> explains that frequency of extreme heatwaves<\/strong> in the United States was higher in the 1930s than in recent decades. That is based on NOAA historical data<\/strong>, not projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If heatwaves were strictly \u201cdriven\u201d by rising CO2 concentrations, we would expect a clear, monotonic increase in frequency and intensity corresponding to emissions growth. The observational record does not show that. Instead, it shows strong variability influenced by natural factors such as ocean cycles, soil moisture patterns, atmospheric blocking highs, and El Ni\u00f1o events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AP article itself acknowledges that \u201cnearly all the shorter-term forecasts call for a strong El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong>.\u201d El Ni\u00f1o is a natural ocean-atmosphere oscillation that temporarily boosts global average temperatures<\/a>. It has nothing to do with fossil fuels. If 2027 turns out hotter due to a strong El Ni\u00f1o, that would reflect a cyclical Pacific warming phase, not proof of accelerating man-made climate forcing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

AP also emphasizes that there is a \u201c75% chance\u201d that the five-year average will exceed 1.5\u00b0C above preindustrial levels. But that 1.5\u00b0C threshold was a politically chosen \u201cthreshold,\u201d not one identified by science as bringing catastrophe. The 1.5\u2103 temperature was a 20-year average benchmark under the Paris Agreement. Even the report\u2019s co-author admits it is \u201cnot kind of a cliff edge that we\u2019re going to fall off.\u201d Yet the headline language suggests imminent planetary destabilization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Short-term variability is a defining feature of Earth\u2019s climate system<\/strong>. Volcanic eruptions, solar cycles, ENSO<\/strong> phases, and ocean circulation shifts can all nudge global averages up or down by tenths of a degree. The planet does not warm in a straight line. The idea that five years of elevated readings would constitute some irreversible tipping point is not supported by historical climate behavior. In point of fact, much of the warming of the past few years was likely driven by the Hunga Tonga<\/strong> near sea surface volcanic eruption, which injected enough water vapor into the atmosphere \u2013 water vapor being the dominant greenhouse gas \u2013 to, in the words of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, \u201ccause a rapid change in chemistry.\u201d The water vapor added by Hunga Tonga is only slowly diminishing, meaning its lingering effects will add to the expected El Nino. Meaning if the politically determined 1.5\u2103 threshold is breached, it will be combination of natural factors, not human caused climate change to blame. In either case, there is no real reason to believe dangerous tipping points<\/a> will flow from it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate at a Glance\u2019s<\/em> discussion of model fallibility<\/a> documents multiple instances where model projections overstated warming trends or extreme event changes relative to observations. This fact means confidence in precise five-year forecasts should be restrained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The broader problem is attribution inflation. When a heatwave occurs, it is immediately cited by an overzealous press (such as AP) as evidence of climate change. But weather is not climate<\/a>. Heatwaves occurred before the Industrial Revolution. They occurred during the Medieval Warm Period<\/a>. They occurred during the 1930s Dust Bowl<\/strong> as seen in the figure below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Heat wave Index. Source: EPA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Specific events are influenced by immediate meteorological dynamics, not by abstract multi-decade averages alone. Climate change<\/strong> is a long-term statistical trend. It does not dictate the formation of a particular\u00a0blocking heat dome<\/a>\u00a0over North America in June 2027. It does not create or prevent El Ni\u00f1o. It does not eliminate natural variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AP story closes with sweeping claims that \u201cevery nation is already paying a huge price\u201d from a \u201cglobal climate crisis.\u201d That alarmist rhetoric goes far beyond what five-year model ensembles can justify and, based on mortality<\/a>, agricultural<\/a>, and economic data<\/a>, is flat false.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecasts based on 200 model runs are not measurements. They are scenario outputs, outputs only as good as the assumptions, data, and the accuracy of the modeled interconnections between disparate physical, chemical, and biological phenomena, built into the models. In fact, most of the factors that impact global and regional climates are only poorly understood and accounted for in models, as even the IPCC has admitted. (See the graphic, below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The models used by the IPCC have a low Level of Scientific Understanding (LOSU) <\/strong>concerning impact of clouds, solar irradiance (that is the impact of the sun), and aerosols on climate change. Note the models don\u2019t even attempt to account for volcanic impacts, or the impacts of changes to large scale ocean currents, changes in vegetation, or the Earth\u2019s wobble and shifts in its tilt. Yet all of these impact climate on a regional or global scale. Thus, treating inadequate model forecasts as inevitabilities is unjustified as a matter of science and science reporting. The AP is choosing to promote an alarming climate narrative over the deep uncertainty that is the fact of the causes and present and future consequences of climate change.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Associated Press (AP) claims in \u201cThink it\u2019s hot now? The next five years will smash records, UN says\u201d that Earth is \u201coverwhelmingly likely\u201d to repeatedly surge past the 1.5\u00b0C threshold and experience escalating heatwaves and extreme weather from 2026 to 2030. This is highly misleading if not outright false. The story is built almost entirely on computer model projections, not observed data, and it treats speculative model simulations as though they reflect measured trends.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":448440,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818153,691820621,691835675,691831979,691819287,691843490,691818087,691843491,691827793,691843489,691820304],"class_list":["post-448428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-models","tag-computer-simulations","tag-dust-bowl-of-the-1930s","tag-earths-climate-system","tag-el-nino-2","tag-extreme-heatwaves","tag-global-warming","tag-level-of-scientific-understanding-losu","tag-the-associated-press-ap-2","tag-united-nations-climate-projections","tag-united-states","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Copilot_Wrong-Associated-Press-Computer-Simulations-Dont-Mean-Smashed-Heat-Records-Will-Occur.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1SEI","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":434626,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=434626","url_meta":{"origin":448428,"position":0},"title":"No, Associated Press, This Southwest Heatwave Was Not \u2018Virtually Impossible\u2019 Without Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/27\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent Associated Press (AP) story titled \u201cRecords shattered as summer heat hits Southwest in March; \u2018This is what climate change looks like\u2019\u201d claims the recent Southwest heatwave is the latest proof that climate change is driving \u201cultra extremes.\u201d This is highly misleading and unsupported by real-world data. The story\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"1930s Dust Bowl\"","block_context":{"text":"1930s Dust Bowl","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1930s-dust-bowl"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0webstep-sunset-979393-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0webstep-sunset-979393-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0webstep-sunset-979393-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0webstep-sunset-979393-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0webstep-sunset-979393-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417712,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417712","url_meta":{"origin":448428,"position":1},"title":"Wrong Again PBS, UN Is Pushing Another False Climate Crisis Report","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/18\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent story on PBS NewsHour, \u201cUN says world must jointly tackle issues of climate change, pollution, biodiversity and land loss,\u201d by Tammy Webber of the Associated Press (AP), reports on a new UN \u201cGlobal Environment Outlook\u201d that repeats the false assertion that the Earth is nearing a global tipping\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Associated Press (AP)\"","block_context":{"text":"Associated Press (AP)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=associated-press-ap"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQPts7eAtCHuu0Guz1n8Xeo0HKjpAx7v_0PloAb9ol3VYXtw0LfKmKT7CshD-HMZjL1F1qg_0vkqAx1_95LQmiJPg8uQxoHWo_ISlKQlNOph69ZQsMBRknw-QShscQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C680&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQPts7eAtCHuu0Guz1n8Xeo0HKjpAx7v_0PloAb9ol3VYXtw0LfKmKT7CshD-HMZjL1F1qg_0vkqAx1_95LQmiJPg8uQxoHWo_ISlKQlNOph69ZQsMBRknw-QShscQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C680&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQPts7eAtCHuu0Guz1n8Xeo0HKjpAx7v_0PloAb9ol3VYXtw0LfKmKT7CshD-HMZjL1F1qg_0vkqAx1_95LQmiJPg8uQxoHWo_ISlKQlNOph69ZQsMBRknw-QShscQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C680&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQPts7eAtCHuu0Guz1n8Xeo0HKjpAx7v_0PloAb9ol3VYXtw0LfKmKT7CshD-HMZjL1F1qg_0vkqAx1_95LQmiJPg8uQxoHWo_ISlKQlNOph69ZQsMBRknw-QShscQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C680&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQPts7eAtCHuu0Guz1n8Xeo0HKjpAx7v_0PloAb9ol3VYXtw0LfKmKT7CshD-HMZjL1F1qg_0vkqAx1_95LQmiJPg8uQxoHWo_ISlKQlNOph69ZQsMBRknw-QShscQ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C680&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":443205,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=443205","url_meta":{"origin":448428,"position":2},"title":"Climate Fact-Check April 2026","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/09\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Editor\u2019s note: This compilation serves as a fact check on the top false claims made about climate change by the media in April 2026.","rel":"","context":"In \"AMOC (Atlantic overturning circulation)\"","block_context":{"text":"AMOC (Atlantic overturning circulation)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=amoc-atlantic-overturning-circulation"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0april-2026-fact-check.jpg?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0april-2026-fact-check.jpg?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0april-2026-fact-check.jpg?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0april-2026-fact-check.jpg?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0april-2026-fact-check.jpg?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":421288,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=421288","url_meta":{"origin":448428,"position":3},"title":"No, CBS News, Recent Temperatures Didn\u2019t Surpass a \u2018Critical Climate Mark\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/14\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"CBS News recently published a story \u201c2025 was so hot it pushed Earth past critical climate change mark, scientists say,\u201d from the Associated Press (CBS\/AP), claiming that a recent temperature \u201cblip\u201d has pushed the planet past the Paris Agreement\u2019s 1.5\u00b0C threshold, implying that catastrophic consequences are now unfolding or inevitable.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Associated Press (CBS\/AP)\"","block_context":{"text":"Associated Press (CBS\/AP)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=associated-press-cbs-ap"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/image-226.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":271366,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271366","url_meta":{"origin":448428,"position":4},"title":"Top climate scientists rubbish claims July was the hottest month ever \u2013 Public being \u2018misinformed on a massive scale\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Professor Mass said the climate was \u201cradically warmer\u201d around 1000 years ago during what\u2019s known as the Medieval Warm Period, when agriculture thrived in parts of now ice-covered Greenland. \u201cIf you really go back far enough there were swamps near the North Pole, and the other thing to keep in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00july-2021-was-earth-s-hottest-month-ever-climate-change-359331-1_1280.jpeg?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00july-2021-was-earth-s-hottest-month-ever-climate-change-359331-1_1280.jpeg?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00july-2021-was-earth-s-hottest-month-ever-climate-change-359331-1_1280.jpeg?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00july-2021-was-earth-s-hottest-month-ever-climate-change-359331-1_1280.jpeg?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/00july-2021-was-earth-s-hottest-month-ever-climate-change-359331-1_1280.jpeg?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":241297,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=241297","url_meta":{"origin":448428,"position":5},"title":"No, Associated Press, Recent Migratory Bird Deaths Are NOT Due to Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/24\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"While it is possible that combined effects of weather events may have led to the bird deaths, weather data shows that heatwaves are not getting worse over time, extreme cold trends are declining, and wildfires are also below historic levels.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1041.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1041.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1041.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1041.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-1041.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448428","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=448428"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448428\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":448447,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448428\/revisions\/448447"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/448440"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=448428"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=448428"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=448428"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}