{"id":448066,"date":"2026-06-02T02:55:23","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T09:55:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=448066"},"modified":"2026-06-15T16:43:05","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T23:43:05","slug":"the-missing-jet-governor-how-a-hidden-barotropic-effect-explains-climate-models-failure-on-indias-shifting-monsoon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=448066","title":{"rendered":"The Missing Jet &#8216;Governor&#8217;: How a Hidden Barotropic Effect Explains Climate Models\u2019 Failure on India\u2019s Shifting Monsoon"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"485\" data-attachment-id=\"448068\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=448068\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-The-Missing-Jet-Governor-How-a-Hidden-Barotropic-Effect-Explains-Climate-Models-Failure-on-Indias-Shifting-Monsoon.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1168,784\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0 The Missing Jet &amp;#8216;Governor&amp;#8217; How a Hidden Barotropic Effect Explains Climate Models\u2019 Failure on India\u2019s Shifting Monsoon\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-The-Missing-Jet-Governor-How-a-Hidden-Barotropic-Effect-Explains-Climate-Models-Failure-on-Indias-Shifting-Monsoon.jpg?fit=723%2C485&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-The-Missing-Jet-Governor-How-a-Hidden-Barotropic-Effect-Explains-Climate-Models-Failure-on-Indias-Shifting-Monsoon.jpg?resize=723%2C485&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-448068\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-The-Missing-Jet-Governor-How-a-Hidden-Barotropic-Effect-Explains-Climate-Models-Failure-on-Indias-Shifting-Monsoon.jpg?resize=1024%2C687&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-The-Missing-Jet-Governor-How-a-Hidden-Barotropic-Effect-Explains-Climate-Models-Failure-on-Indias-Shifting-Monsoon.jpg?resize=300%2C201&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-The-Missing-Jet-Governor-How-a-Hidden-Barotropic-Effect-Explains-Climate-Models-Failure-on-Indias-Shifting-Monsoon.jpg?resize=768%2C516&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-The-Missing-Jet-Governor-How-a-Hidden-Barotropic-Effect-Explains-Climate-Models-Failure-on-Indias-Shifting-Monsoon.jpg?resize=640%2C430&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-The-Missing-Jet-Governor-How-a-Hidden-Barotropic-Effect-Explains-Climate-Models-Failure-on-Indias-Shifting-Monsoon.jpg?w=1168&amp;ssl=1 1168w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)<\/strong> is a key component of global ocean circulation. It transports warm, salty surface water northward in the Atlantic and returns colder, deeper water southward. Its strength depends heavily on deep water formation (sinking) in the subpolar North Atlantic, particularly in the Labrador and Irminger Seas near Greenland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Slowdown occurs when surface waters in these sinking regions become less dense, reducing their tendency to sink and drive the overturning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Observations and proxies<\/strong> (e.g., sea surface temperature &#8220;fingerprint&#8221; with cold blob + coastal warming, mid-depth equatorial warming) indicate weakening over recent decades, though rates and exact timing vary across studies, with some pauses due to natural variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Climate models <\/strong>consistently project further weakening this century (often 18\u201343% or 3\u20136 Sv in high-emissions scenarios), but full collapse this century is considered unlikely by many (though debated, with some lower-complexity models or high-resolution work suggesting higher risk under sustained high warming or rapid melt).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The<strong> &#8220;cold blob&#8221; <\/strong>(also called the <strong>North Atlantic warming hole<\/strong>) is a region of unusually cool sea surface temperatures south of Greenland, in contrast to the overall warming of the global ocean. It is widely linked to a slowdown in the <strong>Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)<\/strong>, which includes the Gulf Stream system. Freshwater from melting Greenland ice reduces water density and slows the northward flow of warm water, leading to localized cooling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This feature has been observed for decades and is considered a fingerprint of AMOC weakening, though ocean-atmosphere interactions and other factors also play roles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>According to the new research:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Researchers incorporated the cold blob into climate models.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It alters the upper-level jet stream (likely the subtropical or tropical easterly jet) in ways that shift moisture transport.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This pulls more monsoon rainfall northwestward over India (e.g., toward regions like Rajasthan or Punjab) while suppressing storm systems and rainfall in other parts of the country.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This matches observed trends over the past ~25 years: heavier rains in northwest India and relatively drier conditions elsewhere, contributing to changes in monsoon patterns, floods, and droughts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The mechanism involves <strong>atmospheric teleconnections<\/strong> \u2014 distant ocean temperature anomalies influencing large-scale circulation patterns, including jet streams and moisture convergence over South Asia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>There is a recent scientific study (as of June 1, 2026) linking a persistent cold patch in the North Atlantic to shifts in the Indian summer monsoon.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Missing Summer Westerly Jet Barotropic Governor Effect Explains Climate Models\u2014Observation Discrepancies in the Indian Monsoon Trends<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Since around 1999, the Indian summer monsoon has shown a clear<strong> northwest\u2013southeast dipole <\/strong>in rainfall:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Northwest India <\/strong>(e.g., parts of Rajasthan, Punjab): +24.6% increase in monsoon rainfall.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Indo-Gangetic Plains<\/strong> (core monsoon region): \u20134.4% decrease, contributing to drought-like conditions in some areas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This shift has real-world impacts on agriculture, water resources, and flooding patterns, but standard <strong>coupled climate models<\/strong> (e.g., CMIP6 historical simulations) fail to reproduce it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Proposed Mechanism: Summer Westerly Jet + Barotropic Governor Effect<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The paper identifies a teleconnection from North Atlantic <strong>sea surface temperature (SST) <\/strong>changes \u2014 specifically the <strong>cold blob<\/strong> linked to AMOC slowdown \u2014 that propagates through atmospheric dynamics over Asia:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol start=\"1\" class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>North Atlantic Cold Blob Influence:<\/strong> The cold anomaly (south of Greenland) alters large-scale atmospheric circulation, sending signals via wave trains or teleconnections to the upper-level <strong>Asian summer westerly jet <\/strong>(part of the subtropical or mid-latitude jet over Eurasia).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Barotropic Governor Mechanism:<\/strong>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In fluid dynamics and atmospheric science, a<strong> &#8220;barotropic governor&#8221;<\/strong> refers to how a strong, large-scale zonal (west-east) flow \u2014 like an intensified jet core \u2014 can suppress or &#8220;govern&#8221; the growth of smaller-scale baroclinic eddies and disturbances (e.g., weather systems, storms, or monsoon depressions). phys.org<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Post-1999 observations show <strong>enhanced barotropic energy conversion<\/strong>: Momentum focuses and strengthens the jet core while weakening flanking regions (east-west sides). This creates a more &#8220;rigid&#8221; or focused jet.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Result: Altered moisture transport and suppression of storm formation in certain areas. It modulates the <strong>local Hadley cell <\/strong>(overturning circulation), pulling moisture northwestward over India while reducing it elsewhere.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This explains the rainfall dipole and also broader mid-latitude increases in storm activity in recent decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Barotropic energy conversion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barotropic energy conversion refers to the transfer of kinetic energy between the large-scale mean atmospheric flow (e.g., a jet stream) and smaller-scale disturbances or eddies (e.g., weather systems, monsoon depressions, or transient waves). It is a key process in atmospheric dynamics, particularly in the mid-latitudes and upper troposphere, and does not involve temperature contrasts or vertical structure in the simplest sense (unlike baroclinic processes).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Barotropic energy conversion occurs when eddies extract kinetic energy from (or give it back to) the mean flow through <strong>horizontal shear or deformation <\/strong>in the basic (mean) winds. A common mathematical form for the barotropic kinetic energy conversion term (from the eddy kinetic energy budget) is something like:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><math xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/1998\/Math\/MathML\" display=\"block\"><semantics style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mrow style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mi style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">C<\/mi><mi style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">K<\/mi><mo style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">=<\/mo><mo style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u2212<\/mo><mover accent=\"true\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mrow style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><msup style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mi style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">u<\/mi><mo mathvariant=\"normal\" lspace=\"0em\" rspace=\"0em\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u2032<\/mo><\/msup><msup style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mi style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">v<\/mi><mo mathvariant=\"normal\" lspace=\"0em\" rspace=\"0em\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u2032<\/mo><\/msup><\/mrow><mo stretchy=\"true\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u203e<\/mo><\/mover><mfrac style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mrow style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mi mathvariant=\"normal\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u2202<\/mi><mover accent=\"true\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mi style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">u<\/mi><mo stretchy=\"true\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u203e<\/mo><\/mover><\/mrow><mrow style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mi mathvariant=\"normal\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u2202<\/mi><mi style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">y<\/mi><\/mrow><\/mfrac><mo style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u2212<\/mo><mover accent=\"true\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><msup style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mi style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">u<\/mi><mrow style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mo mathvariant=\"normal\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u2032<\/mo><mn style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">2<\/mn><\/mrow><\/msup><mo stretchy=\"true\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u203e<\/mo><\/mover><mfrac style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mrow style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mi mathvariant=\"normal\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u2202<\/mi><mover accent=\"true\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mi style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">u<\/mi><mo stretchy=\"true\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u203e<\/mo><\/mover><\/mrow><mrow style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\"><mi mathvariant=\"normal\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u2202<\/mi><mi style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">x<\/mi><\/mrow><\/mfrac><mo style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">+<\/mo><mo style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">\u2026<\/mo><\/mrow><annotation encoding=\"application\/x-tex\" style=\"color: black; background-color: transparent; font-family: sans-serif;\">CK = -\\overline{u&#8217;v&#8217;} \\frac{\\partial \\overline{u}}{\\partial y} &#8211; \\overline{u&#8217;^2} \\frac{\\partial \\overline{u}}{\\partial x} + \\dots<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><code>CK = -\\overline{u'v'} \\frac{\\partial \\overline{u}}{\\partial y} - \\overline{u'^2} \\frac{\\partial \\overline{u}}{\\partial x} + \\dots<\/code> (full expression has four terms involving Reynolds stresses and mean flow gradients)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Where overbars are time means, primes are deviations (eddies), u and v are zonal and meridional winds. Positive values often indicate energy transfer<strong> from the mean flow to eddies<\/strong> (eddies grow at the expense of the jet), while negative values mean the reverse (eddies dampen, strengthening the mean flow).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Discrepancy- Why Models Miss This<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coupled climate models (where ocean and atmosphere interact) <strong>systematically underestimate or fail to reproduce<\/strong> the observed North Atlantic cold blob and associated SST patterns. As a result, they show <strong>reversed barotropic energy conversion <\/strong>patterns and miss the jet modulation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When researchers run <strong>prescribed SST experiments<\/strong> (forcing atmospheric models with observed North Atlantic temperatures, including the cold blob), the models successfully reproduce the observed jet changes, energy conversion, and rainfall dipole<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This highlights a key model bias in simulating AMOC-related ocean changes and their remote atmospheric teleconnections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Implications<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ties directly to<strong> AMOC slowdown<\/strong> mechanisms (freshwater input, stratification, etc.): The cold blob acts as a fingerprint, linking North Atlantic circulation changes to South Asian monsoon trends. This connects two potential &#8220;tipping elements.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Improves understanding of why traditional models struggle with recent monsoon trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Suggests better incorporation of observed SST forcings or improved <strong>ocean dynamics in models<\/strong> could enhance predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The barotropic governor concept also helps explain global mid-latitude storm trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is an important advance in explaining <strong>model-observation discrepancies<\/strong> through a specific dynamical pathway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Published:<\/strong> &nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/journals\/agu-advances\/\">AGU Advances<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1029\/2025av002173\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">&nbsp;10.1029\/2025av002173<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Authors: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/authored-by\/Mahendra\/Nimmakanti\">Nimmakanti Mahendra<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/authored-by\/Chilukoti\/Nagaraju\">Nagaraju Chilukoti<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/authored-by\/Liu\/Xiaoqing\">Xiaoqing Liu<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/authored-by\/Chowdary\/Jasti+S.\">Jasti S. Chowdary<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/authored-by\/Wang\/Lei\">Lei Wang<\/a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/authored-by\/Huber\/Matthew\">Matthew Huber<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Abstract<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The South Asian summer monsoon has exhibited a pronounced Northwest India-Indo-Gangetic Plains rainfall dipole since 1999, with northwest India experiencing a 24.6% increase, while rainfall in the Indo-Gangetic Plain has decreased by 4.4%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This dipole pattern is absent in historical climate model simulations, and the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for it are not yet fully understood. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Using synthesis of observational and assimilated data and climate model simulations, we demonstrate that this dipole is driven by North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) changes, which are transmitted through a \u201cbarotropic governor mechanism\u201d and modulate Asian jet stream dynamics. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enhanced barotropic energy conversion after 1999 generated momentum focusing in the jet core while weakening east-west flanking regions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This fundamentally altered the monsoon circulation by modulating the local Hadley cell. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We find that this barotropic governor activation coincides with the North Atlantic \u201ccold blob\u201d attributed to a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coupled climate simulations over the historical era systematically fail to reproduce North Atlantic SST changes; thus, this atmospheric dynamical mechanism instead showed reversed barotropic energy conversion patterns and failed to reproduce this key teleconnection mechanism. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Prescribed SST experiments forced by observed North Atlantic SST changes support the proposed mechanism, successfully reproducing both observed jet dynamics and rainfall trends. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The identification of a North Atlantic-Asian teleconnection pathway modulated by the barotropic governor effect directly links the behavior of the AMOC and monsoon tipping elements to each other.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The &#8220;cold blob&#8221; (also called the North Atlantic warming hole) is a region of unusually cool sea surface temperatures south of Greenland, in contrast to the overall warming of the global ocean. It is widely linked to a slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which includes the Gulf Stream system. Freshwater from melting Greenland ice reduces water density and slows the northward flow of warm water, leading to localized cooling.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":448068,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691843455,691821384,691843453,691833968,691818153,691843456,691843452,691843454],"class_list":["post-448066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-barotropic-governor","tag-atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc","tag-atmospheric-teleconnections","tag-cold-blob","tag-climate-models","tag-local-hadley-cell","tag-north-atlantic-warming-hole","tag-northwest-southeast-dipole","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-The-Missing-Jet-Governor-How-a-Hidden-Barotropic-Effect-Explains-Climate-Models-Failure-on-Indias-Shifting-Monsoon.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1SyS","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":337048,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337048","url_meta":{"origin":448066,"position":0},"title":"AMOC\u2019s \u201cCold Blob\u201d Has Gone Missing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/20\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"For the first time, the IPCC\u2019s doctrine of CO2 as a \u2018control knob\u2019 in our climate faces a serious challenger in the form of a comprehensive hypothesis about what drives climate and its shifts. \u2013 This article is the fourth in a series evaluating this new hypothesis of natural climate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-ocean-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Screenshot-2024-07-20-143158.png?fit=1171%2C611&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Screenshot-2024-07-20-143158.png?fit=1171%2C611&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Screenshot-2024-07-20-143158.png?fit=1171%2C611&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Screenshot-2024-07-20-143158.png?fit=1171%2C611&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0Screenshot-2024-07-20-143158.png?fit=1171%2C611&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":256424,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=256424","url_meta":{"origin":448066,"position":1},"title":"2023 Observing N. Atlantic Oscillations","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/07\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"North Atlantic is a Climate Driver The importance of this basin is described by B\u00f6rgel et al. (2020)\u00a0The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation controls the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on North European climate.\u00a0 Excerpts in italics with my bolds.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00North-Atlantic.jpeg?fit=1122%2C699&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00North-Atlantic.jpeg?fit=1122%2C699&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00North-Atlantic.jpeg?fit=1122%2C699&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00North-Atlantic.jpeg?fit=1122%2C699&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00North-Atlantic.jpeg?fit=1122%2C699&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":371387,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371387","url_meta":{"origin":448066,"position":2},"title":"No, NewsBreak, the Supposed \u201cCold Blob\u201d in the Atlantic Isn\u2019t a Harbinger of the Atlantic Ocean Current Collapsing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/22\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"An article published at NewsBreak (NB) titled,\u00a0Scientists issue urgent warning about mysterious \u2018cold blob\u2019 in the ocean: \u2018Most likely underestimated\u2019\u00a0claims that a \u201cmysterious cold blob\u201d in the Atlantic Ocean signals an impending collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which could have \u201ccatastrophic\u201d consequences. This claim is, at best,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0cold-blob-2018-NASA.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0cold-blob-2018-NASA.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0cold-blob-2018-NASA.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0cold-blob-2018-NASA.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0cold-blob-2018-NASA.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":409239,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=409239","url_meta":{"origin":448066,"position":3},"title":"New Study Contradicts The Alarmist Narrative That Says The AMOC Is Catastrophically Collapsing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Alarmists claim that, due to anthropogenic climate change (AGW), the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening to the point that it\u2019s on the verge of\u00a0collapsing. It\u2019s claimed this will lead to abrupt cooling and extreme weather in the North Atlantic region.","rel":"","context":"In \"anthropogenic climate change (AGW)\"","block_context":{"text":"anthropogenic climate change (AGW)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-climate-change-agw"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQMJvBPBebog8Xm49_ERkrVz9uWa4J5OdkYLJThsovaKBw055yTJnhg5mKHmbygBlnRZF12QFuK21htLK4u7vMobZbPFYdbf-a4yvSDfNXNJ6yBnujkF1uDqJXQYgg-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C649&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":413569,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413569","url_meta":{"origin":448066,"position":4},"title":"Nature Claims Their Circulation Is Decreasing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/17\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Let\u2019s get something straight: this new study entitled Equatorial Atlantic mid-depth warming indicates Atlantic meridional overturning circulation slowdown, hot off the Nature presses and already getting the full catastrophe-trending treatment, claims that mysterious \u201cmid-depth warming\u201d in the equatorial Atlantic\u2014between 1,000 and 2,000 meters down\u2014is the long-sought \u201cfingerprint\u201d proving that the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":413772,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=413772","url_meta":{"origin":448066,"position":5},"title":"The Cooling Also Not Our Fault\u00a02025","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/18\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz With the lack of global warming and the steep decline of SSTs the last 2 years, climatists are pivoting to the notion invented by the infamous M. Mann, AKA Mr. Hockey Stick (aiming to erase the Medieval warming period).\u00a0 The reasoning is convoluted, as you\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/0Screenshot-2025-11-17-094353.png?fit=1200%2C729&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=448066"}],"version-history":[{"count":34,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448066\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":448103,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/448066\/revisions\/448103"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/448068"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=448066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=448066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=448066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}