{"id":447992,"date":"2026-06-01T12:47:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-01T19:47:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=447992"},"modified":"2026-06-01T12:47:33","modified_gmt":"2026-06-01T19:47:33","slug":"nature-turns-up-the-sunshine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=447992","title":{"rendered":"Nature Turns Up The Sunshine"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest Post by<\/em><\/strong> Willis Eschenbach<\/a> (@WEschenbach on X, my personal blog is here<\/a>)<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the usual unknown reasons that are so common in my life, I got to thinking about sunshine hours.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Several people have noted that the decreased total albedo in the CERES dataset not only provides the additional energy necessary to explain a quarter-century of warming. It also gives changes in the total absorbed solar radiation (ASR, incoming solar radiation minus reflected solar radiation) that match up very nicely with the warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1. Normalized ASR and surface upwelling longwave radiation. \u201cNormalized\u201d means set to have an average of zero and a standard deviation of one.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Now, a problem with the CERES data is that it only covers the last 25 years. So in place of albedo, I thought I\u2019d look at \u201csunshine hours\u201d instead. This is the percentage of the daylight hours of a day, week, month, or year during which the sun is shining. It\u2019s not albedo, but it\u2019s related. Some research showed that the longest dataset we have is from Oxford in the UK. Here is that record.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 2. Annual percentage of the daylight hours during which the sun is shining in Oxford, UK. Yellow line is a CEEMD smooth of the data.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Hmmm, sez I \u2026 most interesting. Although this isn\u2019t the same as ASR, it\u2019s most definitely increasing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, I looked at Europe. Copernicus has a dataset showing sunshine hours there. It\u2019s shorter, starting only in 1983. Figure 3 shows the Copernicus data.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 3. Average annual percentage of the daylight hours during which the sun is shining in Europe. Yellow line is a CEEMD smooth of the data.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

So I kept looking. My next dataset was from the US. Before ~ 1900, coverage is sparse, but after 1900, there are over 100 stations that record sunshine hours. So I didn\u2019t try to area- weight them, I just took a straight average.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 4. Average annual percentage of the daylight hours during which the sun is shining in the US. Yellow line is a CEEMD smooth of the data.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

[UPDATE] An alert reader, JohnC, located a sunshine hours graph for the entire UK here<\/a>. This is their graph.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Having seen that the percentage of sunshine hours was increasing in all the datasets I could find, and having seen that the CERES absorbed solar radiation was increasing, I turned back to the CERES dataset. Recall that \u201cASR\u201d, the absorbed solar radiation, is the top-of-atmosphere solar radiation minus the solar reflections from the clouds, aerosols, and the surface. Here\u2019s what\u2019s happening with the ASR, shown along with the theoretical increase in forcing due to CO2.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 5. Global monthly absorbed solar radiation (ASR, solar radiation minus reflected solar radiation), and the theoretical increase in \u201cforcing\u201d (downwelling radiation due to CO2) over the same period.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Now, bear in mind that one of the core arguments of the advocates of the idea that CO2 alone causes the recent global warming is that there is no natural explanation for the warming. Here\u2019s the IPCC making that argument, that if the models are only given natural forcings, they can\u2019t replicate the increase in temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Figure 6. Models with natural forcings (blue) and natural plus anthropogenic forcings (red)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

But as the ASR data above shows, the change in albedo provides enough solar power to explain the temperature increase without greenhouse gases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, note that this does NOT mean that greenhouse gases have no role in setting the temperature. It only means that they are merely part of the story. As I showed in my recently published peer-reviewed study entitled \u201cComputational implementation and empirical validation of a Constructal climate model<\/a>\u201c, you need both the albedo and the greenhouse gases to explain the changes in the Earth\u2019s temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Blue springtime skies today, lots of sunshine hours, and plenty of outside maintenance calling me \u2026 my best regards to all on this most awesome planet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

w.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Is My Wont: I ask that when you comment, you quote the exact words you are discussing. It keeps the thread from getting lost in misunderstandings.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Several people have noted that the decreased total albedo in the CERES dataset not only provides the additional energy necessary to explain a quarter-century of warming. It also gives changes in the total absorbed solar radiation (ASR, incoming solar radiation minus reflected solar radiation) that match up very nicely with the warming.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":448033,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691834054,691827448,691829997,691843448,691820367],"class_list":["post-447992","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-absorbed-solar-radiation-asr","tag-albedo","tag-carbon-dioxide-co","tag-ceres-dataset","tag-solar-radiation","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-ChatGPT-Nature-Turns-Up-The-Sunshine.png?fit=1402%2C1122&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1SxG","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":426924,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426924","url_meta":{"origin":447992,"position":0},"title":"CERES Data Shocker: Clouds and Albedo Changes Account for All Modern Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/18\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Nikolov and Zeller use NASA CERES satellite data on planetary albedo (Earth's reflectivity) and compare it to their semi-empirical model, which downplays or replaces the traditional greenhouse effect with a thermodynamic pressure-based explanation for atmospheric warming.","rel":"","context":"In \"albedo changes\"","block_context":{"text":"albedo 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https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMONR7W1WkelAFxbQi9d6Gzi-8zRmMnp2HM4reHPiL577qKJZLwz7XGiVCukBMSy3WS8GdaxT_O5lT9aicR80qDPRyke9m4jvhiilhH6UMudJ-OQkQWDESym3DfMlU548jP6hNBJFGHHSR7SHuCFRqBzw6YQA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMONR7W1WkelAFxbQi9d6Gzi-8zRmMnp2HM4reHPiL577qKJZLwz7XGiVCukBMSy3WS8GdaxT_O5lT9aicR80qDPRyke9m4jvhiilhH6UMudJ-OQkQWDESym3DfMlU548jP6hNBJFGHHSR7SHuCFRqBzw6YQA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":446251,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446251","url_meta":{"origin":447992,"position":1},"title":"Calculating Earth\u2019s Albedo, Part 2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/24\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"What is the best way to compute albedo from CERES data?","rel":"","context":"In \"CERES (Clouds and the Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System)\"","block_context":{"text":"CERES (Clouds and 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3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":358490,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=358490","url_meta":{"origin":447992,"position":2},"title":"New Study: The Warming Trend Since 2013 Explained by Increases in Absorbed Solar Radiation, Not CO2","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/24\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Instead, a\u00a0new study\u00a0published in the journal\u00a0Science\u00a0contends that decreasing cloud albedo and the consequent increase in ASR or absorbed solar radiation (+0.97 to 1.10 W\/m\u00b2\/decade according to ERA5 and CERES, respectively), explains the warming over the last decade. (Less cloud cover means more solar radiation reaches the Earth\u2019s surface, warming it.)","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0acp-20-9895-2020-f06-web.png?fit=1200%2C536&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0acp-20-9895-2020-f06-web.png?fit=1200%2C536&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0acp-20-9895-2020-f06-web.png?fit=1200%2C536&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0acp-20-9895-2020-f06-web.png?fit=1200%2C536&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/0acp-20-9895-2020-f06-web.png?fit=1200%2C536&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":445931,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=445931","url_meta":{"origin":447992,"position":3},"title":"CERES Albedo","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/22\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"CERES data has been widely discussed in climate research because even small changes in reflectivity can alter Earth\u2019s energy balance measurably over time.","rel":"","context":"In \"albedo (the fraction of incoming solar radiation reflected back to space)\"","block_context":{"text":"albedo (the fraction of incoming solar radiation reflected back to space)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=albedo-the-fraction-of-incoming-solar-radiation-reflected-back-to-space"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-ChatGPT-CERES-Albedo.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-ChatGPT-CERES-Albedo.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-ChatGPT-CERES-Albedo.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-ChatGPT-CERES-Albedo.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-ChatGPT-CERES-Albedo.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":448803,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=448803","url_meta":{"origin":447992,"position":4},"title":"More Sun, Less Sun","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/05\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"And what is the atmospheric window when it\u2019s at home? 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