{"id":447242,"date":"2026-05-29T07:44:43","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T14:44:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=447242"},"modified":"2026-05-29T07:44:46","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T14:44:46","slug":"ipcc-admits-its-worst-case-climate-predictions-were-always-implausible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=447242","title":{"rendered":"IPCC Admits Its Worst-Case Climate Predictions Were Always Implausible"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In the ScenarioMIP design paper for CMIP7 (the modeling foundation for future IPCC AR7)<\/strong>, lead authors (including Detlef van Vuuren) state that the high-end CMIP6 scenario SSP5-8.5 (successor to RCP8.5)<\/strong> “have become implausible” for the 21st century. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reasons cited: renewable cost trends, policy emergence, and recent emissions data. The new scenario range narrows on the high end; the replacement “High” scenario assumes policy rollback but stays below prior 8.5 W\/m\u00b2 forcing. Low-end scenarios have also shifted due to observed trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This echoes years of critiques from Roger Pielke Jr., Justin Ritchie, Glen Peters, Zeke Hausfather<\/strong>, and others: RCP8.5\/SSP5-8.5<\/strong> assumed unrealistic coal resurgence (multiple times current levels, straining reserves), high population + slow tech progress, and was never ideal as a “business-as-usual” baseline. It was overused in thousands of papers, impact studies, and media for dramatic projections (often 4\u00b0C+ warming).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gregory Wrightstone<\/strong> argues this validates long-standing critiques: extreme models were overstated, CO\u2082 is beneficial (plant food, not just a pollutant), modest warming has upsides, and there’s no existential crisis. He highlights record crop yields and ecosystem gains from CO\u2082 fertilization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This fits broader data:<\/strong> satellite observations show significant planetary greening<\/strong>; global crop production has risen substantially with CO\u2082 and technology; deaths from extreme weather have plummeted due to wealth and adaptation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Exclusive: Wrightstone on U.N. Climate Panel Admission Apocalyptic Predictions Were Always \u2018Implausible\u2019<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United Nations\u2019 Climate Panel admitted its apocalyptic predictions were always \u201cimplausible,\u201d geologist Gregory Wrightstone, Executive Director of the CO2 Coalition and author of \u201cA Very Convenient Warming: How Modest Warming And More CO2 Are Benefitting Humanity,\u201d told Breitbart News Daily.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wrightstone told listeners that he was happy to deliver \u201cgood news and the truth about what is actually happening to Earth\u2019s ecosystems and to the human condition,\u201d contrary to the fearmongering<\/strong> routinely espoused by the radical left. <\/a>BREITBART<\/a> has the story.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

He touted \u201chuge benefits\u201d<\/strong> that are accumulating across \u201calmost every ecological niche across the earth.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAnd humanity is benefiting from warming in more C02<\/strong>. We should welcome that. We should celebrate it instead,\u201d he said, debunking the longtime narrative that C02 is a terrible, toxic pollutant and will inevitably lead to our demise. On the contrary, Wrightstone said it is not a pollutant at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf we look at the science, the facts, and the data, number one: C02 is not a pollutant. It\u2019s not toxic,\u201d he said, explaining that if someone locked themselves in a room with only C02, they would die from lack of oxygen \u2013 not because C02 is toxic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He continued, \u201cRight now we\u2019re a little bit over 400 parts per million ppm,\u201d he said before referencing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)<\/strong>, which he is all too familiar with, serving as an \u201cexpert reviewer for that very same IPCC several years ago.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAnd they\u2019ve been touting this, what\u2019s called RCP 8.5<\/strong>,\u201d he said, explaining this in layman\u2019s terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cRepresentative Concentration Pathways. They predict that C02 levels will reach over 2,000 parts per million in the future. We\u2019ve been pushing back. We, being the coalition experts, have been pushing back against that. And just last week, the IPCC came out, and get this. They said this, what we\u2019ve been predicting for 15 years, they called it implausible,\u201d he revealed, explaining that the IPCC <\/strong>admitted their own predictions were bunk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI would go further, I would call it impossible, and so all these models they\u2019re using to predict warming from C02 that will be unusual and unprecedented, they\u2019re all wrong, and this is just one part of it,\u201d Wrightstone said, revealing that they also \u201camplify the supposed warming by increases in water vapor<\/strong>, which then increase temperatures even higher\u201d \u2013 another falsehood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAnd again we find that\u2019s just not true either,\u201d he said, offering the biggest takeaway for Americans across the nation and individuals worldwide: The climate crisis does not exist.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThey should sleep well. There is no climate crisis, and they should sleep well because Earth and humanity are benefiting, not getting worse,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read the full story here<\/a>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the ScenarioMIP design paper for CMIP7 (the modeling foundation for future IPCC AR7), lead authors (including Detlef van Vuuren) state that the high-end CMIP6 scenario SSP5-8.5 (successor to RCP8.5) “have become implausible” for the 21st century.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":447246,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819079,691829997,691818721,691818102,691840996,691833570,691843358,691820922],"class_list":["post-447242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-al-gore","tag-carbon-dioxide-co","tag-climate-alarmists","tag-climate-crisis","tag-failed-predictions","tag-global-agricultural-productivity","tag-great-fertilizer","tag-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-IPCC-Admits-Its-Worst-Case-Climate-Predictions-Were-Always-Implausible-1.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1SlA","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":446688,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446688","url_meta":{"origin":447242,"position":0},"title":"Heartland Institute Experts React to President Trump\u2019s Social Media Post About UN Retreating from Extremist Climate Models","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/27\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201cThe United Nations TOP Climate Committee just admitted that its own projections (RCP8.5) were WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! For far too long Climate Activism has been used by Dumocrats to scare Americans, push horrible Energy Polices, and fund BILLIONS into their bogus research programs.\u201d","rel":"","context":"In \"agenda-driven modeling\"","block_context":{"text":"agenda-driven modeling","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=agenda-driven-modeling"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/Trump.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":443344,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=443344","url_meta":{"origin":447242,"position":1},"title":"UN Climate Panel Quietly Admits Its Doomsday Climate Scenarios Were \u2018Implausible\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/10\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The IPCC has published a new generation of climate scenarios \u2013 and buried in the fine print is a remarkable concession: the extreme warming pathways that dominated climate research, policy, and media coverage for decades were never actually plausible. It took a while to notice because almost no one in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"apocalyptic climate messaging\"","block_context":{"text":"apocalyptic climate messaging","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=apocalyptic-climate-messaging"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0AQMx_yo3DrXlHtpV_QLZmSt_cuqpnqFDv5ZW-c4TCk37y6r2RhQXhpbpHIIZQi4_QyKl3CZZrNIbTZPWIarMsPJyCD38dxOTItWJuZ7Q7jEhj-IgVxGqZdZg-CGGF5rk4cgG4iCB0-8k5itOPlAevfQEIKoYNw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0AQMx_yo3DrXlHtpV_QLZmSt_cuqpnqFDv5ZW-c4TCk37y6r2RhQXhpbpHIIZQi4_QyKl3CZZrNIbTZPWIarMsPJyCD38dxOTItWJuZ7Q7jEhj-IgVxGqZdZg-CGGF5rk4cgG4iCB0-8k5itOPlAevfQEIKoYNw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0AQMx_yo3DrXlHtpV_QLZmSt_cuqpnqFDv5ZW-c4TCk37y6r2RhQXhpbpHIIZQi4_QyKl3CZZrNIbTZPWIarMsPJyCD38dxOTItWJuZ7Q7jEhj-IgVxGqZdZg-CGGF5rk4cgG4iCB0-8k5itOPlAevfQEIKoYNw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0AQMx_yo3DrXlHtpV_QLZmSt_cuqpnqFDv5ZW-c4TCk37y6r2RhQXhpbpHIIZQi4_QyKl3CZZrNIbTZPWIarMsPJyCD38dxOTItWJuZ7Q7jEhj-IgVxGqZdZg-CGGF5rk4cgG4iCB0-8k5itOPlAevfQEIKoYNw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0AQMx_yo3DrXlHtpV_QLZmSt_cuqpnqFDv5ZW-c4TCk37y6r2RhQXhpbpHIIZQi4_QyKl3CZZrNIbTZPWIarMsPJyCD38dxOTItWJuZ7Q7jEhj-IgVxGqZdZg-CGGF5rk4cgG4iCB0-8k5itOPlAevfQEIKoYNw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":257406,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=257406","url_meta":{"origin":447242,"position":2},"title":"Dutch- Led Network Of International Experts Find “Serious Errors“ In Latest IPCC Report","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/14\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The UN Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) is misleading policy makers by focusing on an implausible worst-case emissions scenarios, concludes a new analysis report published by the\u00a0Clintel Foundation","rel":"","context":"In \"Clintel report\"","block_context":{"text":"Clintel report","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=clintel-report"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00image_2022-02-28_220618.png?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00image_2022-02-28_220618.png?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00image_2022-02-28_220618.png?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00image_2022-02-28_220618.png?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/00image_2022-02-28_220618.png?fit=1200%2C655&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":446033,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446033","url_meta":{"origin":447242,"position":3},"title":"Spot On, New York Post, Billions Have Been Wasted Based on Fake Climate Science","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent New York Post (NYP) article, titled \u201cBillions have been wasted on UN\u2019s climate change lies,\u201d describes how billions, if not trillions, of dollars have been spent worldwide attempting to slow or stop the world from experiencing the extreme climate change as forecast by the flawed, but widely used\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0right-nyp.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0right-nyp.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0right-nyp.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0right-nyp.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0right-nyp.jpg?fit=1200%2C668&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":271426,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=271426","url_meta":{"origin":447242,"position":4},"title":"Is the Era of \u2018Global Boiling\u2019 Really Upon Us? The Climate Fear-Mongers are Becoming a Laughing Stock","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Of course, by ramping up the fear to \u2018boiling\u2019 point, the unhinged Antonio Guterres has fallen into the \u2018worse than Hitler\u2019 trap. Where can you go after you call someone a Nazi, or tell a world audience that the Earth is bubbling beneath its feet?","rel":"","context":"In \"anthropogenic global\u00a0warming\u00a0boiling hypothesis\"","block_context":{"text":"anthropogenic global\u00a0warming\u00a0boiling hypothesis","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=anthropogenic-global-warming-boiling-hypothesis"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-121.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-121.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-121.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-121.png?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":442725,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442725","url_meta":{"origin":447242,"position":5},"title":"IPCC Admits Apocalyptic Climate Scenarios Are \u201cImplausible\u201d \u2013 Meaning Most Media Scare Stories Over Last 15 Years Are Officially Junk","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/06\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Activist climate scientists, journalists and Net Zero-obsessed politicians are in shock following an official admission from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that a set of key assumptions promoting a climate \u2018crisis\u2019 since 2011 are \u201cimplausible\u201d. The notorious set of always-improbable RCP8.5 \u2018pathway\u2019 assumptions which fed into computer models\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"BBC\"","block_context":{"text":"BBC","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bbc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/RCP8.5-Is-Officially-Dead-Climate-Science-Finally-Retires-Its-Implausible-Extreme-Scenario.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/RCP8.5-Is-Officially-Dead-Climate-Science-Finally-Retires-Its-Implausible-Extreme-Scenario.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/RCP8.5-Is-Officially-Dead-Climate-Science-Finally-Retires-Its-Implausible-Extreme-Scenario.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/RCP8.5-Is-Officially-Dead-Climate-Science-Finally-Retires-Its-Implausible-Extreme-Scenario.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/447242","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=447242"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/447242\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":447264,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/447242\/revisions\/447264"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/447246"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=447242"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=447242"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=447242"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}