{"id":447209,"date":"2026-05-29T03:52:08","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T10:52:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=447209"},"modified":"2026-05-29T03:52:10","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T10:52:10","slug":"implausible-uk-health-security-agency-report-promoting-endemic-dengue-fever-in-london-must-be-withdrawn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=447209","title":{"rendered":"\u201cImplausible\u201d UK Health Security Agency Report Promoting Endemic Dengue Fever in London Must Be Withdrawn"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Chris Morrison<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In December 2023, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) captured mainstream headlines with claims that massive increases in temperatures could lead to tropical mosquito-borne diseases sweeping the nation, endemic dengue fever in London by 2060<\/a>, and a 12-fold increase in heat mortality within 50 years. All nonsense, of course \u2013 and the UKHSA report relied heavily on the notorious<\/a> 2018 Met Office Climate Projections report (UKCP18). This Net Zero-promoting exercise ran only one set of assumptions through its supercomputer model and highlighted the findings in bold type. Those assumptions, always far-fetched, have now been declared \u201cimplausible\u201d by the UN\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UKHSA report was entitled Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK: State of the Evidence 2,023<\/em> (HECC). It relied on UKCP18 and appears to have standardised its findings around RCP8.5. The Met Office work seems to have been responsible for all the HECC scenario assumptions, hazard frequencies, temperature trajectories and rainfall intensification estimates. HECC claims that temperatures could rise by 4\u00b0C in under 80 years \u2013 evidence, or rather guesses, that exist only on the Met Office\u2019s RCP8.5-fed computer. This hopelessly flawed work must be withdrawn immediately, preferably with an unreserved apology for presenting what was little more than health fear-mongering as \u2018evidence\u2019. But the reckoning must go much further. The UKCP18\/RCP8.5 rot runs deep throughout the UKHSA\u2019s climate health messaging. Many of its separate outputs \u2013 from projections of future heat-related ambulance demand to input into England\u2019s National Adaptation Programme \u2013 are heavily influenced by the same now officially implausible assumptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is no exaggeration to say that UKCP18, with its RCP8.5-only projections, has effectively become the standard UK climate source for adaptation planning. Again, immediate withdrawal is required to prevent further damage to the wider British economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The claim of endemic dengue fever is perhaps the most egregious element of the HECC report, given that it is tied directly to rising human-caused greenhouse gas emissions. The culprit is the Asian tiger mosquito, which was confined to its tropical forest base during the last ice age but has been moving northwards throughout the current interglacial period. As larger areas have opened up for colonisation, the mosquito has become more tolerant of lower temperatures and \u2013 in common with many invasive species \u2013 has thrived as human mobility has increased. Through shipping and trade, the Asian tiger mosquito has already established itself across much of Europe. There have been reports of mild dengue fever cases in several European countries, but fatality rates are at or near zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus<\/em>, beginning its blood-meal<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

UKCP18 is described as \u2018evidence\u2019 by the UKHSA, and RCP8.5 as a \u201cplausible worst-case scenario\u201d. Both claims are untenable, for at least three reasons. First, RCP8.5 was always implausible: it fed assumptions about global population growth and coal consumption into computer models that no serious analyst should ever have considered credible. Second, the Met Office ran only RCP8.5 through its model, deriving other \u2013 and largely unpublicised \u2013 figures from those results. A clear case, one might suggest, of Garbage In, Garbage Out. Third, the model was programmed on the assumption that human combustion of hydrocarbons controls the climate thermostat by contributing roughly 4% of the carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere each year. None of this would survive a rigorous process of scientific debate and falsification \u2013 which is precisely why political activists have declared climate science \u2018settled\u2019 and closed to scrutiny. Garbage In, Gospel Out is the operating principle in the fantasy world of Net Zero advocacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another way of looking at it: billions of pounds in subsidies, grants and salaries tends to purchase a great deal of the right kind of scientific wisdom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And few outputs were more fanciful than those found in HECC 2,023. Who better to amplify them than the Guardian<\/em>, which reported that the \u201cclimate crisis\u201d could cause up to 10,000 extra deaths<\/a> in the UK every year by the 2050s. An estimated 4.3\u00b0C rise in temperature, the paper claimed, would produce a 12-fold increase in heat-related deaths by 2,070, along with a surge in insect-borne tropical diseases. The BBC, needless to say, ran with it at full speed \u2013 repeating the RCP8.5 projections and adding a claim that there would be a \u201cbig impact on mental health and wellbeing<\/a> of young people in particular\u201d. There are, of course, those who suggest that the mental health of the young would be considerably improved if they stopped absorbing the relentless climate alarmism transmitted by a State broadcaster that levies a tax on their television sets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alarmism with an ulterior motive, as the BBC\u2019s own reporting confirms. The UKHSA observes that many \u201cpotential problems\u201d remain avoidable with swift action. \u201cSteep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions could avert some of the worst consequences,\u201d it adds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New balls, please \u2013 these old ones have lost all their plausibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chris Morrison is the<\/em> Daily Sceptic\u2019s Environment Editor<\/em>. Follow him on X<\/em><\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In December 2023, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) captured mainstream headlines with claims that massive increases in temperatures could lead to tropical mosquito-borne diseases sweeping the nation, endemic dengue fever in London by 2060, and a 12-fold increase in heat mortality within 50 years. All nonsense, of course \u2013 and the UKHSA report relied heavily on the notorious 2018 Met Office Climate Projections report (UKCP18). This Net Zero-promoting exercise ran only one set of assumptions through its supercomputer model and highlighted the findings in bold 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