{"id":446603,"date":"2026-05-26T08:30:06","date_gmt":"2026-05-26T15:30:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446603"},"modified":"2026-05-26T08:30:08","modified_gmt":"2026-05-26T15:30:08","slug":"super-el-nino-coming-or-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446603","title":{"rendered":"Super El Nino Coming! Or\u00a0not."},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Many headlines proclaiming lots of warming with the current La Nina ending.  Some examples from the usual suspects:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o is coming,<\/strong> chances rising it will be historically strong,<\/strong>  CNN<\/strong>
What Makes This Year\u2019s Super El Ni\u00f1o the Strongest in 140 Years<\/strong>?,  Science Times<\/strong>
Weather experts warn of \u2018super\u2019 El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong>. Here\u2019s what could happen,<\/strong>. USA Today<\/strong>
Here\u2019s What The Super El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong> Means In Your State, Weather.com<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Source: psl.nooa enso current<\/strong><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After all, warmists need warming to justify their narrative, and people attending outdoor sporting events in NH are noticing how cool it is presently.  So hope abounds for a great reversal in coming months, while leaving unstated that oceanic cycles are a natural climate driver unaffected by CO2 emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Importantly, the theory of human-caused global warming asserts that increasing CO2 in the atmosphere changes the baseline and causes systemic warming in our climate. On the contrary, the graph above shows all of the warming since 1947 was episodic, coming from three brief El Nino events associated with oceanic cycles. And in 2024 we saw an amazing episode with a temperature spike driven by ocean air warming in all regions, along with rising NH land temperatures, now dropping well below its peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Is a Super El Nino Coming?  Yes and No.<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The certainty in the headlines is speculative and exaggerated.  The Climate Prediction Center is more circumspect and unbiased.  The forecast is here: ENSO Alert System Status: El Ni\u00f1o Watch  <\/strong><\/a>Synopsis in italics with my bolds and added images.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026)
and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27
(96% chance in December 2026-February 2027).<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the past month, ENSO-neutral conditions continued,<\/strong> as indicated by near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1].<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The latest weekly Ni\u00f1o-3.4 index value was +0.4\u00b0C<\/strong>, with the westernmost (Ni\u00f1o-4) and easternmost (Ni\u00f1o-1+2) indices at +0.5\u00b0C and +1.0\u00b0C, respectively [Fig. 2]. The equatorial subsurface temperature index<\/strong> (average from 180\u00b0-100\u00b0W) increased<\/strong> for the sixth consecutive month [Fig. 3], with widespread, significantly above-average subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Westerly wind anomalies were observed<\/strong> over the western equatorial Pacific at low levels<\/strong> and were evident over the central and east-central Pacific at upper levels. Convection was near average<\/strong> on the equator near the Date Line and was suppressed around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral conditions.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)<\/strong> average, including the NCEP CFSv2 [Fig. 6], favors El Ni\u00f1o to form by next month and persist t<\/strong>hrough Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

While confidence in the occurrence of El Ni\u00f1o has increased since last month, there is still substantial uncertainty in the peak strength of El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong>, with no strength categorization exceeding a 37% chance [Figs. 7 & 8].<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The strongest El Ni\u00f1o events<\/strong> in the historical record are characterized by significant ocean-atmosphere coupling through the summe<\/strong>r, and it remains to be seen whether this occurs in 2026.<\/strong> Stronger El Ni\u00f1o events do not ensure strong impacts;<\/strong> they can only make certain impacts more likely (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies<\/strong>). In summary, El Ni\u00f1o is likely to emerge soon (82% chance in May-July 2026) and continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27 (96% chance in December 2026-February 2027).<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Warming in Nino 3.4 index in 2026.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 June 2026.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

An El Ni\u00f1o is highly likely to develop soon (this summer 2026) and persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2026\u201327, but whether it becomes a true \u201csuper\u201d El Ni\u00f1o remains uncertain. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":446605,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_hide_featured_image":false,"_jetpack_featured_image_duplicate_dismissed":0,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691843283,691819287,691818087,691843284,691827585,691826905,691843125],"class_list":["post-446603","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-carbon-dioxide-co","tag-el-nino-southern-oscillation-enso-6","tag-el-nino-2","tag-global-warming","tag-north-american-multi-model-ensemble-nmme","tag-oceanic-cycles","tag-sea-surface-temperatures-ssts","tag-super-el-nino-2","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Sbh","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":439097,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=439097","url_meta":{"origin":446603,"position":0},"title":"Is a Super El Nino Coming?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/13\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Forecasts are probabilistic, so plan for a range of outcomes rather than betting on the most dramatic scenario.","rel":"","context":"In \"dynamical models\"","block_context":{"text":"dynamical models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=dynamical-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":449836,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=449836","url_meta":{"origin":446603,"position":1},"title":"Here Comes the Super Mega Ultimate Hyper Giga Godzilla El Ni\u00f1o","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/11\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Pacific is boiling. The trade winds have surrendered. Sea surface temperatures just hit \"oh hell no\" levels, and this absolute unit of a kaiju is rising from the depths like a bad omen wrapped in a Category 5 hurricane.Name: Godzill Ni\u00f1o 3000 Height: 400 feet of pure chaotic neutral\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Copilot-ROOOAAAAARRRR-Here-comes-the-Super-Mega-Ultimate-Hyper-Giga-Godzilla-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Copilot-ROOOAAAAARRRR-Here-comes-the-Super-Mega-Ultimate-Hyper-Giga-Godzilla-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Copilot-ROOOAAAAARRRR-Here-comes-the-Super-Mega-Ultimate-Hyper-Giga-Godzilla-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Copilot-ROOOAAAAARRRR-Here-comes-the-Super-Mega-Ultimate-Hyper-Giga-Godzilla-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Copilot-ROOOAAAAARRRR-Here-comes-the-Super-Mega-Ultimate-Hyper-Giga-Godzilla-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":451128,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=451128","url_meta":{"origin":446603,"position":2},"title":"Super El Ni\u00f1os Lose Their Signature Punch as the World Warms","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/19\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Extreme El Ni\u00f1o events, sometimes called \"super El Ni\u00f1os\", are the strongest, most impactful members of the warm phase of the El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO). They stand out from moderate El Ni\u00f1os due to their exceptional intensity, spatial characteristics, and nonlinear atmospheric responses.","rel":"","context":"In \"El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO)\"","block_context":{"text":"El Ni\u00f1o\u2013Southern Oscillation (ENSO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-southern-oscillation-enso-4"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Super-El-Ninos-Lose-Their-Signature-Punch-as-the-World-Warms.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Super-El-Ninos-Lose-Their-Signature-Punch-as-the-World-Warms.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Super-El-Ninos-Lose-Their-Signature-Punch-as-the-World-Warms.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Super-El-Ninos-Lose-Their-Signature-Punch-as-the-World-Warms.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/0-Super-El-Ninos-Lose-Their-Signature-Punch-as-the-World-Warms.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":445799,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=445799","url_meta":{"origin":446603,"position":3},"title":"About That \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/22\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"On Thursday, May 14, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center issued its monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion. 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Here\u2019s how a hotter ocean could change the weather near you.","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-ChatGPT-Super-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-ChatGPT-Super-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-ChatGPT-Super-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-ChatGPT-Super-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-ChatGPT-Super-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C960&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":465930,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=465930","url_meta":{"origin":446603,"position":4},"title":"Wrong, Deutsche Welle, There Is No Such Thing as a \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d Nor Is it on Team Climate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/26\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Deutsche Welle (DW) claims in \u201cHow climate change is teaming up with \u2018Super El Nino\u201d that a developing \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o,\u201d combined with climate change, could make 2026 one of the hottest years on record while increasing the risks of heat waves, wildfires, droughts, hurricanes, and marine heat waves around\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate 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\"Basics\"","block_context":{"text":"Basics","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=basics"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Super-El-Nino.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Super-El-Nino.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Super-El-Nino.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Super-El-Nino.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/0-Super-El-Nino.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 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