{"id":446161,"date":"2026-05-23T09:56:58","date_gmt":"2026-05-23T16:56:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161"},"modified":"2026-05-24T15:45:07","modified_gmt":"2026-05-24T22:45:07","slug":"good-news-noaa-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161","title":{"rendered":"GOOD NEWS: NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Early preparation essential to staying safe all season<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecasters with NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA\u2019s outlook for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs June 1 to November 30, predicts a 35% chance of a near-normal season, a 10% chance of an above-normal season, and a 55% chance of a below-normal season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The agency is forecasting a total of 8-14 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 3-6 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1-3 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA\u2019s 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (Image credit: NOAA)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWith the most advanced forecast modeling and hurricane tracking technologies, NOAA and the National Weather Service are prepared to deliver real-time storm forecasts and warnings,\u201d said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. \u201cOur experts are integrating cutting-edge tools to ensure communities in the path of storms receive the earliest, most accurate information possible.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNOAA\u2019s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,\u201d said NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D. \u201cThese new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm\u2019s way.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Key factors driving NOAA\u2019s forecast<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Atlantic season is expected to be below-normal due to competing factors. El Ni\u00f1o is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, while ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely weaker than average. El Ni\u00f1o conditions tend to support less tropical storms and hurricanes, while warmer ocean temperatures and low winds support a more active year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAlthough El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,\u201d said NOAA\u2019s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. \u201cThat is why it\u2019s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NOAA\u2019s outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns. It does not indicate where or when any storms may affect land as that is determined by short-term and variable weather patterns is not a landfall forecast. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPreparing now for hurricane season- and not waiting for a storm to threaten \u2013 is essential for staying ahead of any storm. Visit weather.gov\/safety<\/a> and Ready.gov<\/a> for important preparedness information,\u201d added Graham.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2026 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, and Wilfred. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. (Image credit: NOAA)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

New and enhanced communication products this season<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n