{"id":445149,"date":"2026-05-19T03:46:24","date_gmt":"2026-05-19T10:46:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=445149"},"modified":"2026-05-19T14:45:41","modified_gmt":"2026-05-19T21:45:41","slug":"2026-mid-may-arctic-ice-extents-less-impacted-by-vortex","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=445149","title":{"rendered":"2026 Mid-May: Arctic Ice Extents Less Impacted by\u00a0Vortex"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Science Matters<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Ron Clutz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The arctic ice extents are now reported through Mid-May 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incusions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.  This was still a factor early in May, but now appears to be receding, according to the AER Polar Vortex blog (May 11)<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Judah Cohen: <\/strong> As I discussed in the previous blog, I do think that the influence from the PV did continue into easrly May, and in fact May so far has been impressively cool in Eastern Canada and the Eastern and less so in parts of Europe (see Figure ii). With more Greenland blocking predicted (see Figure i) is that still the influence of the PV?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure ii. Estimate of the observed surface temperatures (\u00b0C; shading) from 01 May to 10 May 2026 based on GFS initializations and the GFS forecast from the 11May 2026 run.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Figure 11, it appears that the influence of the PV split\/Final Warming has ended<\/strong> this week with cold\/negative polar cap height standardized geopotential height anomalies (PCHs) throughout the stratosphere and tropsophere. Last week I used the PCH limited to the North Atlantic sector to argue the ongoing influence of the PV split and today\u2019s plot (see Figure iii) does not provide any longer an alternative interpretation but rather any further influence of the PV will have to wait until next fall.<\/strong> Though I think this does need to be qualified as my interpretation rather than being fully objective.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The chart below shows the 20-year averages for Arctic ice extents from Mid-April to Mid-May March along with 2026, 2025 and 2006 as well as SII v.4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Remarkably the deficit to average opened up on May 5 (day 125) to 739k km2, but since then the gap was cut in half, reaching 328k km2 at the end of this period.  The 20-year average maximum daily ice extent loss over this period is 1.5M km2, and in 2026 the decline was 1.2M km2. These are MASIE stats, but SII shows virtually the same results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The table below shows the distibution of ice extents on day 136 across regions of the Arctic ocean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Region<\/strong><\/td>2026136<\/strong><\/td>Day 136 Ave.<\/strong><\/td>2026-Ave.<\/strong><\/td>2006136<\/strong><\/td>2026-2006<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere<\/td>12271401<\/td>12599588<\/td>-328188<\/td>12157814<\/td>113586<\/td><\/tr>
 (1) Beaufort_Sea<\/td>1071070<\/td>1047101<\/td>23969<\/td>1066139<\/td>4931<\/td><\/tr>
 (2) Chukchi_Sea<\/td>940742<\/td>927240<\/td>13502<\/td>956734<\/td>-15992<\/td><\/tr>
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea<\/td>1065475<\/td>1081524<\/td>-16050<\/td>1074876<\/td>-9402<\/td><\/tr>
 (4) Laptev_Sea<\/td>872186<\/td>878598<\/td>-6412<\/td>889990<\/td>-17804<\/td><\/tr>
 (5) Kara_Sea<\/td>917017<\/td>873944<\/td>43073<\/td>839569<\/td>77448<\/td><\/tr>
 (6) Barents_Sea<\/td>344186<\/td>411348<\/td>-67162<\/td>182554<\/td>161632<\/td><\/tr>
 (7) Greenland_Sea<\/td>549259<\/td>621605<\/td>-72346<\/td>519337<\/td>29922<\/td><\/tr>
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence<\/td>917090<\/td>1054954<\/td>-137865<\/td>892335<\/td>24755<\/td><\/tr>
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago<\/td>853177<\/td>841640<\/td>11537<\/td>828806<\/td>24370<\/td><\/tr>
 (10) Hudson_Bay<\/td>1176685<\/td>1172007<\/td>4677<\/td>1071342<\/td>105343<\/td><\/tr>
 (11) Central_Arctic<\/td>3212502<\/td>3223772<\/td>-11270<\/td>3169225<\/td>43277<\/td><\/tr>
 (12) Bering_Sea<\/td>248490<\/td>285726<\/td>-37236<\/td>478464<\/td>-229973<\/td><\/tr>
 (13) Baltic_Sea<\/td>0<\/td>5749<\/td>-5749<\/td>15239<\/td>-15239<\/td><\/tr>
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk<\/td>101440<\/td>172136<\/td>-70695<\/td>168615<\/td>-67174<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The table shows that most regions are close to or above the 20-year average.  The majority of the 3% overall deficit is from Baffin Bay, down 138k km2,  Smaller deficits are in Okhotsk, Barents and Greenland seas.  All of those regions will be nearly ice-free end of summer.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth\u2019s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring ice and snow extents.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The arctic ice extents are now reported through Mid-May 2026, and as noted previously the wavy polar vortex has hampered ice formation with incusions of warmer southern air into the Arctic circle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":445170,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818605,691822451,691842497,691843145,691843143,691843144],"class_list":["post-445149","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-arctic","tag-masie","tag-northern-hemisphere-nh","tag-pchs","tag-polar-vortex-pv","tag-pv-split-final-warming","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-2026-Mid-May-Arctic-Ice-Extents-Less-Impacted-by-Vortex.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1RNP","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":437132,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=437132","url_meta":{"origin":445149,"position":0},"title":"2026 March Arctic Ice Recovery Slowed by\u00a0Vortex","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The arctic ice extents are now reported through end of March 2026, the month whose average is taken as the annual maximum. 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