{"id":444676,"date":"2026-05-16T10:30:31","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T17:30:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=444676"},"modified":"2026-05-16T10:30:33","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T17:30:33","slug":"new-york-following-cubas-strategy-for-powering-the-electrical-grid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=444676","title":{"rendered":"New York Following Cuba\u2019s Strategy For Powering The Electrical Grid"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Manhattan Contrarian<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By  Francis Menton<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suppose that you are a large U.S. state with a dynamic modern economy. Here\u2019s an idea for a strategy for powering your electrical grid: Intentionally disinvest in your functioning fossil fuel generation plants; fail to maintain them adequately, and let them age into obsolescence. Meanwhile, encourage and even subsidize the development of solar panels as a replacement. After all, solar power is cheaper!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those who follow the policy of New York State with respect to our electrical grid will recognize this description as covering the essential elements of our strategy. In our case, the strategy was mainly enacted into law in 2019 via the Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In heading down this path, have we checked around to see what other states or countries have adopted this strategy, and how it has worked out? Just asking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s start with a quick review of New York\u2019s currently-existing strategy for its grid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today, the State gets something over half of its electricity from fossil fuels, almost entirely natural gas, with most of the remainder from hydro (mostly Niagara Falls) and nuclear. The CLCPA contains mandates that that shall change, and rapidly. Section 4 of the CLCPA (codified as Public Service Law \u00a7 66-p(2)<\/a>) mandates that the State get \u201cseventy percent of the state wide electric generation\u201d<\/em> from \u201crenewable energy systems\u201d<\/em> by 2030, and that by 2040 \u201cthe statewide electrical demand system will be zero emissions.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

These mandates are then administered by state agencies, particularly the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC). If you want to build a new power plant in New York, or do a major capital project on an existing plant (such as re-powering a natural gas plant with the latest combined cycle technology), you need to get a permit from DEC. Section 7 of the CLCPA<\/a> gives the following direction to DEC (and other agencies) with respect to issuing permits:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[A]ll state agencies shall consider whether such decisions are inconsistent with, or will interfere with, the attainment of the statewide greenhouse gas emissions limits. . . .<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back in 2021, two aging natural gas plants \u2014 the Astoria plant in Queens and the Danskammer plant along the Hudson River in Orange County \u2014 sought permits from DEC to re-power to the latest natural gas technology. DEC denied the permits, citing the CLCPA. From Politico, October 27, 2021<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gov. Kathy Hochul\u2019s administration has made a landmark move to deny permits for two natural gas plants seeking to repower, citing the state\u2019s climate law. The Department of Environmental Conservation denied permits for NRG\u2019s Astoria plant and the Danskammer plant in Orange County. Both plants were seeking to repower with more efficient natural gas units than their previous operations. The decisions were embraced by environmentalists who have been pushing for years to block the fossil fuel projects. . . . \u201cBoth [plants] would be inconsistent with New York\u2019s nation-leading climate law, and are not justified or needed for grid reliability. We must shift to a renewable future,\u201d wrote DEC Commissioner Basil Seggos on Twitter.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since then, as far as I can determine, nobody has wasted the effort to try to get DEC to go along with a project to build or upgrade a fossil fuel power plant. As a result, the existing fleet has just gotten older. In its \u201cPower Trends\u201d Report issued in late 2025<\/a>, the New York ISO described the state of New York\u2019s aging fleet of fossil fuel power plants:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A growing number of fossil-fuel generators in New York are reaching an age at which similar units across the country have been deactivated. New York\u2019s fleet of fossil-fuel-based generation includes more than 10,000 MW, roughly 25% of the state\u2019s total generating capacity, that has been in operation for more than 50 years. As these fossil-fuel generators age, they are experiencing more frequent and longer outages. Greater difficulties in maintaining older equipment, combined with the impact of policies to restrict or eliminate emissions may drive aging generators to deactivate, which would exacerbate declining reliability margins.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDeclining reliability margins\u201d is a polite way of saying \u201cincreasing frequency and duration of blackouts.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With hydro already built out, and new nuclear taking decades to come online, that leaves wind and solar as the main plan for the future of New York\u2019s electricity. In the case of wind, New York\u2019s grand scheme was a vast collection of some 9 GW capacity of giant turbines off the coast of Long Island. However, that has been almost entirely scuttled by the Trump administration. And thus we are down to our last option, solar. The brain-dead cheerleading agency known as NYSERDA (New York State Energy Research & Development Agency) has this to say about solar for New York as of early 2026<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than six gigawatts (GW) of solar energy has been installed in New York State \u2013 enough to power one million homes and businesses. This robust solar energy infrastructure enables a resilient electric grid that supports local jobs, healthier communities, and access to renewable energy for more New Yorkers. . . . By 2030, New York is expected to be home to more than 10 GW of distributed solar energy.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So by 2030, if we\u2019re lucky, we\u2019ll have the same fleet of natural gas plants, yet four years older than today and, as NYISO says, \u201cexperiencing more frequent and longer outages\u201d; plus about 10 GW of solar capacity, to supply about 20 GW of average demand, and about 35 GW of peak demand that typically occurs in the evening after the sun has set.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Has any other state or country tried following the same strategy? Some big countries like Germany and the UK have started down this road. But if the key elements are forcing the thermal plants to age into obsolescence while having mostly solar as the alternative, the closest analogy I can find is Cuba.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cuba has about 4000 MW of thermal (fossil fuel) electricity generating capacity, in their case almost all using oil rather than natural gas. The plants were almost all built from the 1960s to 1980s \u2014 the Soviet era \u2014 so they range in age from just under 40 years to over 60. Peak demand is around 3250 MW, so you would think that with the 4000 MW of capacity they have enough. But the plants are old and unreliable, and frequently down for extended maintenance and repairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here\u2019s a report from a source called Ciber Cuba<\/a> on how Cuba\u2019s electricity system is doing this very day. The headline is \u201cThe energy crisis in Cuba worsens: nearly 2,000 MW deficit during peak hours.\u201d Excerpt:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cuba faces one of the most critical days of its already devastated electrical crisis this Tuesday, with a projected deficit of <\/em>1,960 MW<\/em><\/strong> during peak nighttime hours, according to the <\/em>official report from the Electric Union<\/em><\/a> (UNE). The report reveals that at 06:00 hours today, the availability of the National Electric System (SEN) was only <\/em>1,250 MW<\/em><\/strong> against a demand of 2,884 MW, with 1,649 MW already affected since the early morning. The situation is expected to worsen as night falls. The UNE estimates a supply of 1,290 MW against a peak demand of 3,250 MW, resulting in a deficit of 1,960 MW and a projected impact of <\/em>1,990 MW<\/em><\/strong> during peak hours, equivalent to leaving almost two-thirds of the country without electricity.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

So basically, two-thirds of the country is in forced blackout at any given time. Recent fuel shortages resulting from the U.S. embargo that began in January undoubtedly are a contributing factor to the crisis. However, Ciber Cuba points out that just as big a problem is that many of the aging power plants are out of service:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[A]ccumulated breakdowns partly explain the collapse. Units two and three of the Ernesto Guevara de la Serna Thermoelectric Power Plant (CTE), unit two of the Lidio Ram\u00f3n P\u00e9rez CTE, and unit five of the Antonio Maceo CTE are out of service, while four other units are undergoing maintenance at the Mariel, Rent\u00e9, and Nuevitas plants.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

More availability of oil would not have helped with those outages. And the electricity situation in Cuba was nearly as bad last year, before the fuel supply from Venezuela got cut off. Here is a report from Al-Jazeera from September 2025:<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another total electricity blackout has struck Cuba, the latest in a string of grid collapses that have rocked the island of 10 million over the past year. The island-wide outage, which hit just after 9am local time on Wednesday, is believed to be linked to a malfunction at one of Cuba\u2019s largest thermoelectric plants, the Ministry of Energy and Mines said.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

But doesn\u2019t Cuba have a big collection of solar farms? I thought that, in the words of NYSERDA, \u201crobust solar energy infrastructure enables a resilient electric grid that supports local jobs, healthier communities, and access to renewable energy.\u201d <\/em>Why not just crank those up to fill the gaps when the fossil fuel plants break down? From the Ciber Cuba piece:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 54 installed photovoltaic solar parks generated 3,822 MWh on Monday, with a maximum capacity of 490 MW during daylight hours; however, this source does not cover the nighttime deficit, which is when demand peaks.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You mean that all the solar generation that Cuba has built doesn\u2019t provide any light in the nighttime? Who knew? Here from Ciber Cuba is a picture of a Havana street after sunset:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

If we keep up our current energy policies for long enough, we can also get to the point where our thermal (fossil fuel) power plants are too old to be maintained reliably. And then, if we are lucky, we can hope to achieve the energy utopia that has arrived in Cuba.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Can high-renewable grids (with solar\/wind dominance) deliver reliable, affordable power at scale without massive overbuild, storage, or firm backups?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":444678,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691830684,691835666,691819432,691818618,691818836,691843086,691819094],"class_list":["post-444676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-leadership-and-community-protection-act-clcpa","tag-department-of-environmental-conservation-dec","tag-energy-policies","tag-energy-transition","tag-new-york-state","tag-nyserda-new-york-state-energy-research-development-agency","tag-renewable-green-energy","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-ChatGPT-New-York-Following-Cubas-Strategy-For-Powering-The-Electrical-Grid.png?fit=1536%2C1024&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1RGc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":268437,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=268437","url_meta":{"origin":444676,"position":0},"title":"\u2018Progressive\u2019 Power Policy: Ever-Increasing Prices & Ever-Decreasing\u00a0Reliability","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/19\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Because wind and solar power can\u2019t provide electricity all of the time, they have to be backstopped by conventional energy sources. 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If it doesn\u2019t, try something else.","rel":"","context":"In \"$3 trillion\"","block_context":{"text":"$3 trillion","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=3-trillion"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0yl-APOCALYPSE.webp?fit=1200%2C812&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0yl-APOCALYPSE.webp?fit=1200%2C812&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0yl-APOCALYPSE.webp?fit=1200%2C812&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0yl-APOCALYPSE.webp?fit=1200%2C812&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0yl-APOCALYPSE.webp?fit=1200%2C812&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":427189,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=427189","url_meta":{"origin":444676,"position":5},"title":"January 2026 Winter Storm Impacts on New York Grid","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/20\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The January 2026 winter storm stressed electric systems across the country. It also offers electric resource planners an opportunity to examine the impacts of future increased use of renewable energy during high-load conditions. 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