{"id":444596,"date":"2026-05-16T04:05:27","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T11:05:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=444596"},"modified":"2026-05-16T04:05:29","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T11:05:29","slug":"scorecard-how-well-does-noaas-hurricane-outlook-actually-perform-26-years-of-forecasts-vs-reality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=444596","title":{"rendered":"Scorecard: How Well Does NOAA\u2019s Hurricane Outlook Actually Perform? 26 Years of Forecasts vs. Reality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Thursday, May 21, NOAA will hold a news conference at its Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, at 11:00 a.m. EDT to announce its official 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, the agency\u2019s annual prediction of how active the coming storm season will be. Early forecasts from competing agencies, including Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk, are already calling for a somewhat below-normal season, with developing El Ni\u00f1o conditions expected to increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and suppress storm formation. But before the media takes NOAA\u2019s numbers at face value and the inevitable \u201cbusier-than-normal season\u201d headlines roll in, it\u2019s worth asking: how good is NOAA actually at this? A look at 26 years of NOAA\u2019s May seasonal outlooks versus what actually happened reveals a more nuanced picture; the agency hits its own stated forecast range roughly 69% of the time on named storms and hurricanes, just shy of its self-declared 70% confidence target, with a notable tendency to miss badly in the most extreme seasons, and a historical bias toward under-forecasting activity when the Atlantic is running hot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overall hit rate:<\/strong> NOAA\u2019s May outlooks land within their stated range for named storms roughly 17 of 25 years; about 68%, just shy of their own 70% confidence target. The hurricane count accuracy is similar. That said, NOAA aims for a range<\/em> (not a point forecast), so some \u201chits\u201d are easier than others in wide-range years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The big misses:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n