{"id":442648,"date":"2026-05-05T05:30:28","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T12:30:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442648"},"modified":"2026-05-05T05:30:31","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T12:30:31","slug":"new-probabilistic-model-predicts-when-and-where-solar-superflares-x10-are-most-likely","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442648","title":{"rendered":"New Probabilistic Model Predicts When and Where Solar Superflares (>X10) Are Most Likely"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

We are not clearly “overdue” for a solar superflare in any predictable sense\u2014solar activity doesn’t work like a clock, and the risks, while real, are often overhyped in headlines.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

X-class flares <\/strong>are the strongest category in the standard GOES classification (peak soft X-ray flux \u2265 10\u207b\u2074 W\/m\u00b2). An X10 is already enormous; stronger ones are sometimes informally called “S-flares” (>X10) in recent research.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Superflares<\/strong> are a broader term from stellar astronomy: much more energetic white-light events observed on other Sun-like stars, often 100+ times stronger than the 1859 Carrington Event (estimated around X45\u2013X80 equivalent in some reconstructions).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Carrington Event (1859) <\/strong>is the benchmark for extreme solar storms in recorded history. It caused auroras visible in the tropics, telegraph system failures, and fires from induced currents. A modern repeat could disrupt satellites, power grids, GPS, and communications globally, with trillions in potential economic damage\u2014but it wouldn’t end civilization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recent studies (e.g., late 2024 analysis of ~56,000 Sun-like stars from Kepler data) suggest stars like ours produce superflares<\/strong> roughly once per century <\/strong>on average\u2014more frequent than older estimates of once every few thousand years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The last major Carrington-level event was ~165 years ago, so some headlines say we’re “overdue.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this is statistical, not deterministic<\/strong>. Solar cycles are ~11 years<\/strong>, with longer modulations, but extreme events don’t follow a strict schedule. The Sun may behave differently from the average in those stellar samples (e.g., rotation rate, magnetic field strength).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Proxy data (tree rings, ice cores) show extreme solar particle events (like Miyake events<\/strong>) roughly once every 1,000\u20131,500+ years, not every century. There’s a gap between stellar superflare statistics and Earth evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S-flares (>X10) are rare even in modern observations. Solar Cycle 25<\/strong> (ongoing, near\/after peak) has seen strong X-class activity, but true >X10 events remain uncommon. Some models flag higher risk windows around 2025\u20132027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Space weather is active but not apocalyptic right now. Monitor reliable sources like NOAA SWPC, SpaceWeatherLive, or Spaceweather.com for real-time updates. Superflares remain rare tail-risk events rather than something “overdue” on any specific calendar. Preparedness for moderate-to-strong storms (satellites, grids, HF radio) is wise during solar maximum, but there’s no immediate cause for alarm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a February 2026 research paper titled “A New Method for Probabilistic Spatiotemporal Forecasts of Solar Soft X\u2010Ray \u201cS\u2010Class\u201d (>X10) Superflares” by V. M. Velasco Herrera and colleagues (including W. Soon and others), published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“A New Method for Probabilistic Spatiotemporal Forecasts of Solar Soft X\u2010Ray \u201cS\u2010Class\u201d (>X10) Superflares”<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead of trying to predict the exact timing and location of individual flares (which remains extremely difficult due to the chaotic, nonlinear nature of magnetic reconnection), the authors shift to identifying extended high-probability windows<\/strong> (months-long) and preferred heliographic latitude bands<\/strong> where S-class events (>X10 in soft X-rays) are statistically more likely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spatial component:<\/strong> “Cross-Laplacian” diagnostic from butterfly diagrams (sunspot area + flare density). This highlights regions of strong photosphere-corona magnetic coupling and energy accumulation (negative Laplacian zones act as “hotspots”).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Temporal component:<\/strong> Wavelet analysis reveals ~1.7-year and ~7-year oscillations in flare activity. These are projected forward using a Bayesian Least-Squares Support Vector Machine (LS-SVM). S-flares prefer positive phases of the 1.7-year cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Integration of both yields unified probabilistic maps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a genuine advance over purely statistical or short-term active-region forecasting. It leverages long-term patterns (nearly 50 years of GOES data) and physics-inspired diagnostics rather than pure ML black-box approaches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecast for Solar Cycle 25<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Window A (current\/recent):<\/strong> ~2025.7\u20132026.6, southern hemisphere preference (5\u00b0S\u201325\u00b0S).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Window B:<\/strong> ~2027.2\u20132027.9, northern hemisphere (10\u00b0N\u201330\u00b0N).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additional windows into Cycle 26<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are currently near the end of the first major window. The authors note that S-flares often occur in the declining phase of cycles and in persistent low-latitude active zones that interact with emerging flux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strengths and promising aspects<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Real-world partial validation:<\/strong> Far-side strong flares in May 2024 (detected by Solar Orbiter\/Parker, estimated >X10 in some cases) aligned with the model’s emerging patterns, even though the paper was in review. This gave the team confidence in its applicability across the entire Sun.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ties into known phenomena like Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs)<\/strong> and severe geomagnetic storms<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long lead time (months to years) is operationally valuable for satellite operators, power grid hardening, astronaut scheduling (e.g., Artemis discussions), etc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Open access and multidisciplinary team (including Willie Soon and others<\/strong>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This paper represents a meaningful step forward in moving from reactive short-term warnings to longer-horizon risk mapping. It aligns with the broader understanding that the Sun’s magnetic dynamo has multiple overlapping timescales, and extreme events aren’t purely random.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are we “overdue”? <\/strong>Not in a calendar sense \u2014 we’re in a statistically elevated window, which matches the active phase of Cycle 25. The absence of a confirmed S-flare so far doesn’t disprove it, but it reminds us these events remain rare tail risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Continued monitoring is essential. If the model holds through the 2027 window, it will gain significant credibility. For now, it’s a useful tool for preparedness rather than a reason for alarm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Published:<\/strong> Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DOI:<\/strong> 10.1029\/2025JA034977<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Authors:<\/strong> V. M. Velasco Herrera<\/a>,\u00a0G. Velasco Herrera<\/a>,\u00a0W. Soon<\/a>,\u00a0A. \u00d6zg\u00fc\u00e7<\/a>,\u00a0N. Babynets<\/a>,\u00a0A. Tlatov<\/a>,\u00a0M. \u0160vanda<\/a>,\u00a0S. Qiu<\/a>,\u00a0S. Baliunas<\/a>,\u00a0B. Kotan<\/a>,\u00a0G. Gonz\u00e1lez Gonz\u00e1lez<\/a>,\u00a0L. A. Bautista Flores<\/a>,\u00a0M. Pazos<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Abstract<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Solar superflares of S-class (>X10 in soft X-rays) pose extreme space weather hazards, yet their prediction remains a fundamental challenge owing to their rapid and transient natures and the limitations of conventional event-based forecasts. We introduce for the first time, a probabilistic spatiotemporal framework designed to identify extended epochs and heliographic zones with heightened superflare likelihood, rather than predicting individual events. Our methodology analyzes nearly five decades of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites SXR observations (1975\u20132025) and introduces two novel components: (a) a cross-Laplacian diagnostic, derived from the butterfly diagrams of sunspot area and SXR flare density, which identifies photosphere-corona coupling and pinpoints magnetic energy accumulation sites as preferential zones for S-flare occurrence; and (b) a temporal model based on the coupled phase states of 1.7-year and 7-year oscillations, extracted via wavelet analysis and projected forward using a Bayesian Least-Squares Support Vector Machine method. Integrating these spatial and temporal diagnostics yields a unified forecast, we identify 2025.7\u20132026.6 and 2027.2\u20132027.9 years, as the primary high-probability windows for S-class flare activity during Solar Cycle 25, corresponding preferentially to latitudinal bands in the southern (<\/semantics><\/math>S\u2013<\/semantics><\/math>S) and northern (<\/semantics><\/math>N\u2013<\/semantics><\/math>N) hemispheres, respectively. Subsequent windows are projected for Cycle 26. This physics-informed, probabilistic approach provides a robust strategy for anticipating periods of extreme solar activity by characterizing the inherent patterns of magnetic energy storage and release in the solar atmosphere.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We are not clearly “overdue” for a solar superflare in any predictable sense\u2014solar activity doesn’t work like a clock, and the risks, while real, are often overhyped in headlines.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":442649,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691842779,691819903,691842781,691842782,691842778,691842780,691819344,691825500],"class_list":{"0":"post-442648","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-extended-high-probability-windows","9":"tag-geomagnetic-storms","10":"tag-ground-level-enhancements-gles","11":"tag-nearly-50-years-of-goes-data","12":"tag-probabilistic-spatiotemporal-forecasting","13":"tag-real-world-partial-validation","14":"tag-solar-cycle-25","15":"tag-southern-hemisphere-sh","17":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-New-Probabilistic-Model-Predicts-When-and-Where-Solar-Superflares-Are-Most-Likely.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1R9u","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":427078,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=427078","url_meta":{"origin":442648,"position":0},"title":"\u00a0Game-Changer: Scientists Now Forecast Dangerous Solar Superstorms \u2013 Windows of Risk Revealed","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/19\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"An international team of scientists (including researchers associated with CERES-Science and others) has developed the first probabilistic forecasting system specifically for super flares- extremely powerful solar eruptions classified as \"S-class\" (soft X-ray flux exceeding X10, or more than 10 times stronger than typical X-class flares). 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