{"id":442640,"date":"2026-05-05T04:10:51","date_gmt":"2026-05-05T11:10:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442640"},"modified":"2026-05-05T04:10:53","modified_gmt":"2026-05-05T11:10:53","slug":"no-usa-today-day-after-tomorrow-amoc-collapse-isnt-happening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442640","title":{"rendered":"No, USA Today, \u2018Day After Tomorrow\u2019 AMOC Collapse Isn\u2019t Happening"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From ClimateRealism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n


By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA Today<\/em> claims in \u201cInfamous disaster scenario can rapidly unfold, study finds<\/a>\u201d that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation<\/a>, or AMOC, could rapidly collapse in a scenario reminiscent of the movie The Day After Tomorrow<\/a>. This is false. The article leans on cinematic fear imagery and speculative modeling rather than observational evidence, and it repackages long-debunked catastrophe narratives as breaking news.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The piece explicitly invokes The Day After Tomorrow, writing that the film \u201cimagined a world where a critical ocean current suddenly collapsed.\u201d That comparison is not accidental. It is rhetorical framing designed to trigger anxiety. The glaring problem is that the movie\u2019s premise has been scientifically debunked for years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The film portrayed the AMOC collapsing in a matter of days, plunging the Northern Hemisphere into an instant ice age. Oceanographers and atmospheric scientists have repeatedly explained that such abrupt global glaciation is physically impossible under current planetary conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Day After Tomorrow\u2019s depiction of an instantaneous AMOC collapse and rapid ice age was scientifically debunked by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)<\/a>  in 2004<\/a>. NOAA stated that while the AMOC could weaken under climate change, the movie\u2019s rapid, days-long shutdown and instant global freeze are physically impossible. NOAA explained that such changes would unfold over decades to centuries, not days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

NASA scientists also publicly criticized the movie\u2019s premise. NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt wrote at RealClimate<\/a> that the film\u2019s portrayal of hemispheric flash-freezing and superstorms \u201cis physically impossible\u201d under known atmospheric and ocean dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) similarly explained<\/a> that while ocean circulation changes are scientifically plausible over long timescales, the movie\u2019s depiction of continent-scale temperature drops occurring in days violates basic thermodynamics and atmospheric physics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf, who studies the AMOC, stated that<\/a> although weakening is possible over long periods, the rapid ice-age scenario shown in the film is not realistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, multiple authoritative scientific bodies and researchers made clear at the time of the film\u2019s release that while AMOC variability is a legitimate research topic, the movie\u2019s catastrophic timeline and mechanisms were exaggerated beyond physical plausibility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report<\/a> (AR6) states there is low confidence in an AMOC collapse before 2100. Yet Doyle Rice of USA Today<\/em> points to the big-budget Hollywood disaster film to keep the catastrophic imagery alive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fear sells, but in the real-world physics matters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study highlighted<\/a> by USA Today<\/em> examines the Younger Dryas<\/a>, a cooling event roughly 12,900 years ago, and suggests volcanic eruptions may have contributed to AMOC disruption. That paleoclimate research is not evidence that modern AMOC collapse is imminent or is made likely by human emissions of carbon dioxide.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The article admits that during the Younger Dryas there was evidence of \u201ca weakening of the AMOC, but not a complete collapse.\u201d The article also quotes a scientist saying the Younger Dryas shift was \u201ca much more abrupt shift than what is currently happening.\u201d Those admissions contradict immediacy of an AMOC collapse induced climate catastrophe implied in the headline. Weakening is not the same as collapse. Variability is not the same as shutdown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moreover, the Younger Dryas occurred under vastly different conditions. Ice sheets were far larger. Freshwater pulses from glacial lakes were massive. Orbital forcing differed the amount of sunlight received on Earth\u2019s surface. Comparing that era to today is dishonest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

USA Today<\/em> pivots from volcanic cooling thousands of years ago to modern carbon dioxide, asserting that today\u2019s threat comes from \u201cexcess carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.\u201d But that claim rests on climate model simulations projecting weakening under high emissions scenarios. It is not based on observational evidence of collapse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Direct measurements of AMOC strength, such as the RAPID array at 26.5\u00b0N operating since 2004<\/a>, show variability but no clear downward spiral toward shutdown. The system fluctuates on decadal timescales. It has throughout recorded history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As summarized at Climate at a Glance\u2019s<\/em> review of ocean currents<\/a>, claims of imminent AMOC collapse are not supported by consistent observational data. The page highlights that while some model projections show weakening under high emissions pathways, empirical measurements remain inconclusive and demonstrate substantial natural variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Realism<\/em> has likewise documented<\/a> how concerning the AMOC there is no consensus. The scientific literature has gone three ways: collapse scenarios, steady-state projections, and partial strengthening, all depending on model configurations. That divergence alone signals high uncertainty. Ocean circulation depends on salinity gradients, wind forcing, freshwater input, and deep water formation processes that are imperfectly represented in even the most advanced models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The AMOC is complex. It has fluctuated for millennia. It may weaken modestly over this century under certain emissions scenarios. That is not the same as a Hollywood-style catastrophe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Referencing The Day After Tomorrow as scientific shorthand for disaster is dark storytelling not journalism. The movie was unrealistic when it was released. It remains unrealistic today. When media outlets use debunked cinematic imagery to frame uncertain model projections as looming disaster, they are misinforming and fearmongering their audiences. USA Today<\/em> should be ashamed of itself for substituting a falsely alarming climate change narrative for the journalistic presentation of truth and knowledge about an important issue.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USA Today claims in \u201cInfamous disaster scenario can rapidly unfold, study finds\u201d that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, could rapidly collapse in a scenario reminiscent of the movie The Day After Tomorrow. This is false. The article leans on cinematic fear imagery and speculative modeling rather than observational evidence, and it repackages long-debunked catastrophe narratives as breaking news.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":442641,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691836760,691837305,691825511,691833237,691818872,691818732,691839922,691837251],"class_list":{"0":"post-442640","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-american-meteorological-society-ams","9":"tag-atlantic-meridian-overturning-circulation-amoc","10":"tag-ice-age","11":"tag-noaa-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administration","12":"tag-northern-hemisphere","13":"tag-the-day-after-tomorrow","14":"tag-the-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc-sixth-assessment-report-ar6","15":"tag-younger-dryas","17":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-No-USA-Today-%E2%80%98Day-After-Tomorrow-AMOC-Collapse-Isnt-Happening.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1R9m","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":368165,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=368165","url_meta":{"origin":442640,"position":0},"title":"Why Isn\u2019t the Mainstream Media Reporting that Ocean Circulation Is Doing Well?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"For decades, mainstream media outlets have asserted that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is on the verge of collapse, bringing catastrophic consequences to the planet. This is false. Recent research indicates that climate change has not altered the Atlantic Ocean current, despite repeated claims by the media and some\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0atlanticocea.jpg?fit=1200%2C842&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0atlanticocea.jpg?fit=1200%2C842&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0atlanticocea.jpg?fit=1200%2C842&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0atlanticocea.jpg?fit=1200%2C842&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0atlanticocea.jpg?fit=1200%2C842&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":417967,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=417967","url_meta":{"origin":442640,"position":1},"title":"Yahoo\u2019s Waning Ocean Current Claims Are Hyperbolic and False","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"12\/20\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent Yahoo News article, \u201cExperts warn ongoing concern with Atlantic Ocean will be direct threat to dozens of nations: \u2018Consequences for at least 1,000 years to come,\u2019\u201d by Timothy McGill, claims a new modeling study shows that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC,) would intensify Southern\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridian-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/AQNXbafYXLVDpMn2v6AWVWEzyY0MWvI3od9-FrUmL0nLybMzbVnBTCylhtDZAstrXj-pL2jdT2IA_MWauARk2CHl1aoCK-p1YRLoT23eLUhCjWE_0y2ilAXtUfs2wblZ.jpeg?fit=1200%2C598&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":300905,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=300905","url_meta":{"origin":442640,"position":2},"title":"Climate change row as British scientists claim \u2018Day After Tomorrow\u2019 modelling is wrong","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Prediction by Dutch team that vital Atlantic system could reach a tipping point and trigger new ice age has been \u2018forced\u2019, say experts. \u201cModels are not reality. 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