{"id":442605,"date":"2026-05-04T10:16:42","date_gmt":"2026-05-04T17:16:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442605"},"modified":"2026-05-04T10:16:44","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T17:16:44","slug":"uaes-opec-exit-pragmatic-oil-policy-not-stranded-assets-panic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442605","title":{"rendered":"UAE\u2019s OPEC Exit: Pragmatic Oil Policy, Not \u2018Stranded Assets\u2019 Panic"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

From Tilak`s Substack<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Tilak Doshi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The United Arab Emirates\u2019 announcement on Tuesday<\/a> that it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1st sent shockwaves through the energy world. As the cartel\u2019s third-largest oil producer, with a production capacity approaching five million barrels per day and ambitions to push higher, the UAE was no peripheral player. Abu Dhabi joined OPEC back in 1967 \u2014 before the UAE federation existed in its modern form \u2014 and the unified UAE carried that legacy for nearly six decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The exit decision was framed by Emirati officials as a \u201cpolicy-driven evolution\u201d in pursuit of \u201clong-term strategic and economic vision\u201d. Within hours, a familiar trope emerged among media commentators: the UAE, fearing the inexorable global march towards Net Zero, is racing to avoid \u2018stranded assets\u2019. Oil will be left in the ground, you see, because electric vehicles in China and Europe\u2019s Green Deal will soon render the black stuff obsolete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Watch out for stranded assets!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stranded assets narrative is the climate alarmists\u2019 weapon of choice. In behavioural economics<\/a>, the tenet of loss aversion suggests that the fear of a tangible loss is far more effective than hope for putative gains in shaping actions. For over two decades, climate activists and financial pundits have argued that fossil fuels \u2014 coal mines, oil and gas fields, pipelines, refineries \u2014 would soon suffer the fate of the buggy whip on the eve of the automobile age. The energy transition, they insisted, would \u2018strand\u2019 trillions of dollars in hydrocarbon assets as the world turns away from carbon-intensive fuels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate activists have long claimed that technological progress in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies combined with climate policies pursued by governments around the world will lead to substantial falls in demand for fossil fuels. A Financial Times<\/a><\/em> column in 2020, for instance, claimed that the pursuit of climate change policies would \u201cevaporate\u201d a third of the current value of the big oil and gas companies. If countries met their Paris Agreement commitments and kept to the \u201cno more than 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels\u201d target, 50% of all coal, oil and gas resources would be \u201cstranded\u201d and, by definition, have zero value. If the stricter 1.5\u00b0C maximum is aimed for, then 80% of the world\u2019s fossil fuels would be stranded.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Citing \u2018consensus science\u2019 (an oxymoron<\/a>), climate change models purportedly linking carbon dioxide emissions with \u2018climate risk\u2019 are used to calculate the necessary cuts in oil, gas and coal production. Hence BlackRock, the world\u2019s largest asset manager and an early purveyor of the ESG movement<\/a>, warned<\/a> over a decade ago that \u201cthe majority of fossil fuel reserves will need to be left in the ground\u201d if global warming is not to exceed 2\u00b0C. Along the same lines, consultants for the OECD<\/a> asserted that \u201cvast quantities of resource reserves will need to remain underground in order to stabilise the climate\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Turning to UAE\u2019s decision to exit OPEC this week, an Oxford don in \u201cenergy systems\u201d captured the climate-focused zeitgeist in a commentary<\/a> published on Wednesday. He argued that as China electrifies transport, demand for oil will \u201cplateau\u201d, and the UAE \u2014 already ahead of the Saudis with its 2050 Net Zero target versus Riyadh\u2019s 2060 \u2014 is wisely sidestepping the risk of unsellable reserves. This, we are told, explains why the Gulf heavyweight is ditching the cartel\u2019s quotas for production flexibility. The UAE can then, in this narrative, produce oil as rapidly as possible before it goes out of fashion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Middle East expert from Rice University\u2019s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston commented<\/a> in Channel News Asia on Thursday that the UAE\u2019s decision to exit \u201creflects a desire to monetise its reserves and move the oil to market to avoid the risk of stranded assets should global demand fall in any future transition away from fossil fuels. Shorn of the constraints of OPEC quotas\u2026 officials in Abu Dhabi will be able to increase production should it wish to do so once the impasse with Iran is broken and the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To more conventional oil analysts, the \u201cstranded assets\u201d theme is worn and threadbare. Fatih Birol, Chief Executive of the IEA, published the astonishing Net Zero \u201croadmap<\/a>\u201d with much fanfare in May 2021, calling for a global stop to all new investments in fossil fuels since they were going to be \u201cstranded\u201d anyway. It duly attracted its share of derision from Gulf oil producers with skin in the game, as in the case of the Saudi oil minister<\/a> who called the report a sequel to \u201cLa La Land<\/em>\u201d. There is perhaps no player as big as Saudi Arabia that can claim \u2018skin in the game\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Barclays PLC dropped a bombshell white paper<\/a> in February titled \u2018Transition Realism: A Stranded Asset Perspective on the Energy Transition\u2019. The report pulls no punches. After years of being lectured that fossil fuels are the quintessential stranded assets \u2014 trillions in oil, gas and coal reserves doomed to remain unused underground as the world races to Net Zero \u2013 we now learn that the real risks now lurk in the renewable sector. \u201cStranded-asset risk is becoming system wide. \u2026 Historically, stranding meant coal plants. Today, renewables facing multi-year interconnection queues, curtailment and congestion risks are increasingly likely to be impaired.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question of national interest<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UAE has chafed for years under OPEC quotas that capped its output at around 3.4 million barrels per day while its sustainable capacity sits at 4.8 million and climbing. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has invested heavily to expand, only to be restrained by OPEC quotas under Saudi-led discipline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have compounded the frustration. UAE exports able to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint via the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline have a capacity to transport 1.5-1.8 million barrels of oil per day. By exiting OPEC, the UAE gains the freedom to ramp up on its own terms, redirect capital to secure export routes and align more closely with the US whose shale revolution<\/a> has already done more to erode cartel power than any UN climate conference ever could. But in the short run, the UAE is constrained by the pipeline capacity until the Strait of Hormuz is released from blockades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate zealots cannot see a sovereign nation\u2019s rational self-interest without projecting their own apocalyptic fantasies onto it. The UAE is not some farsighted convert to the renewables revolution, nor is Saudi Arabia the dim-witted Arab cousin stubbornly clinging to a dying fossil fuels industry. Both are hard-nosed pragmatists operating in a world where oil demand remains robust, geopolitics trumps virtue-signalling and government promises of distant Net Zero targets are worth about as much as the paper they\u2019re printed on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The real story, buried beneath the stranded-assets hysteria, is one of production quotas, regional rivalries, wars and blocked maritime chokepoints for oil and gas trade, and the enduring power of market realities over green ideology. US fracking \u2014 13.2 million barrels per day in January 2026<\/a>, up from 5.4 million in 2010 \u2014 has achieved what decades of diplomatic arm-twisting could not. OPEC\u2019s 2014 attempt to flood the market and crush American oil and gas producers backfired spectacularly, forcing US shale to become profitable at $50-$60 per barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is well below the fiscal break-even oil price<\/a> for most OPEC members, that is, the price that helps balance government budgets. IMF projections indicate that Saudi Arabia requires roughly $95 per barrel to balance its 2025 budget, while the UAE maintains a lower breakeven around $50 per barrel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And yet the stranded-assets mantra persists. Even as physical Brent crude spikes above $110<\/a> amid the Hormuz disruptions \u2014 reminding everyone that energy security is not a luxury but a necessity \u2014 the Oxford academic and his ilk insist the UAE is acting on long-term demand decline. Never mind that China\u2019s electrification is built on a coal-fired grid that shows no sign of rapid decarbonisation. Government pledges 25 or 30 years out are worth less than used Tesla batteries<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UAE, sitting atop some of the world\u2019s lowest-cost oil reserves, is hardly about to abandon that absolute advantage on the altar of UN target \u2018commitments\u2019 for carbon mitigation. Saudi Arabia\u2019s continued commitment to oil is no act of denialism either. Both Gulf powers understand what Western elites refuse to: global fossil fuel demand is not plateauing. The UAE\u2019s exit is about flexibility \u2014 production policy, export security, and foreign policy autonomy \u2014 not a sudden conversion to the Church of Climate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UAE has distanced itself from cartel constraints while deepening US ties, a move accelerated by the Iran war which exposed the limited nature of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council solidarity. UAE Presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said<\/a> the Gulf states supported each other logistically in the crisis, but he lambasted their political and military response: \u201cThe GCC\u2019s stance was the weakest historically, considering the nature of the attack and the threat it posed to everyone.\u201d Riyadh, for its part, retains the swing-producer role and the fiscal buffers to weather volatility. Neither are \u2018unenlightened\u2019; both are playing the long game in a multi-polar energy market where US shale, not solar panels, has humbled OPEC+.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate delusions vs petrostate statecraft<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The broader lesson is one of persistent delusion. Anti-fossil fuel advocates have spent years portraying every market signal \u2014 OPEC cuts, price spikes, producer exits \u2014 as proof of their eschatology. Qatar left in 2019<\/a> for gas focus; Angola in 2024<\/a> over quota disputes; Ecuador and others before them. These were pragmatic adjustments, not harbingers of stranded reserves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The UAE\u2019s departure, the largest and most consequential since the cartel\u2019s founding, weakens OPEC+ materially and reputationally, but it does so because of internal rifts, US supply abundance and regional conflict \u2014 not because Abu Dhabi\u2019s planners have swallowed the IEA\u2019s Net Zero Kool-Aid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the Hormuz crisis underscores, the world still runs on oil. Brent\u2019s surge to over $110 after UAE\u2019s exit notice was not a panicked farewell to fossil fuels but a reminder of supply vulnerability. The UAE will produce more, invest in bypass infrastructure and contribute to stability \u201cin a measured and responsible manner\u201d, as its statement noted. It appreciates OPEC\u2019s past efforts while moving on. That is statesmanship, not surrender to the green transition fairy tale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The climate establishment\u2019s inability to see this reveals more about the ideology of its adherents than about Gulf energy strategy. They project their own wishful thinking \u2014 EU Net Zero by 2050, China\u2019s miraculous pivot to renewables, an early plateau to global fossil fuel demand \u2014 onto rational actors who understand that energy abundance underpins prosperity and security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stranded assets? The only things truly at risk of stranding are the trillions squandered on intermittent renewables that cannot replace hydrocarbons at scale without massive economic losses. The UAE knows this. So does Saudi Arabia. It is high time the West\u2019s virtue-signalling policymakers stopped lecturing them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr Tilak K. Doshi is the <\/em>Daily Sceptic\u2018s Energy Editor. He is an economist, a member of the CO2<\/sub> Coalition and a former contributor to <\/em>Forbes. Follow him on Substack<\/a> and X<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The United Arab Emirates\u2019 announcement on Tuesday that it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1st sent shockwaves through the energy world. As the cartel\u2019s third-largest oil producer, with a production capacity approaching five million barrels per day and ambitions to push higher, the UAE was no peripheral player. Abu Dhabi joined OPEC back in 1967 \u2014 before the UAE federation existed in its modern form \u2014 and the unified UAE carried that legacy for nearly six decades.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":442606,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691818153,691819743,691818618,691818228,691819497,691839810,691818154,691819206,691819094,691841779,691842775,691824247],"class_list":{"0":"post-442605","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-climate-models","10":"tag-climate-propaganda","11":"tag-energy-transition","12":"tag-fossil-fuels","13":"tag-iea","14":"tag-iran","15":"tag-net-zero","16":"tag-opec","17":"tag-renewable-green-energy","18":"tag-strait-of-hormuz","19":"tag-stranded-assets","20":"tag-united-arab-emirates-uae","22":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-UAEs-OPEC-Exit-Pragmatic-Oil-Policy-Not-%E2%80%98Stranded-Assets-Panic.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1R8N","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":441807,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=441807","url_meta":{"origin":442605,"position":0},"title":"UAE to Leave OPEC and OPEC+ in Major Blow to Oil Cartel","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/29\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The UAE, a member since 1967 (initially via Abu Dhabi), is exiting after nearly 60 years. 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