{"id":442273,"date":"2026-05-02T02:00:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-02T09:00:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442273"},"modified":"2026-05-02T02:00:37","modified_gmt":"2026-05-02T09:00:37","slug":"grid-balancing-costs-set-to-rise-to-8-billion-by-2030","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=442273","title":{"rendered":"Grid Balancing Costs Set To Rise To \u00a38 Billion By\u00a02030"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OFGEM claim that their \u00a380 billion electricity grid upgrade will end up actually reducing bills, by reducing constraint payments.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

NESO\u2019s latest review below of balancing costs show this to be an outright lie:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"\"
Balancing costs | National Energy System Operator<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In 2024\/25, total balancing costs hit \u00a32.7 billion, of which \u00a31.7 billion arose from constraint payments. Prior to the Climate Change Act, these balancing costs would have been inconsequential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grid upgrades will add about \u00a39 billion a year to bills by 2031. Self evidently, this cost will far outweigh any potential savings. What they might do, of course, is reduce the cost of future constraint bills, which are projected to massively increase:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

NESO project that constraint payments could rise to \u00a37.2 billion in 2030, before OFGEM\u2019s \u00a380 billion grid upgrades kick in, dropping back to \u00a32.9 billion in 2031.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, after the upgrades, constraint payments will be just as high as now. If we don\u2019t upgrade, constraints will increase. If we do, network charges will increase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Either way, our bills go up!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Significantly, NESO state that constraint payments will resume their upward increase after 2031, as more renewables come on stream. This will require yet more grid upgrades, a never ending roundabout it seems!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, NESO have underestimated long term constraint costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is how they define them:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

So, for example, there is a lot of surplus wind power in Scotland at times, but not enough transmission capacity to take it south to markets. In large part, OFGEM\u2019s upgrades are intended to solve this problem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there is a much bigger problem looming, that no amount of grid upgrades will cure \u2013 soon, there will be far more power on the grid on windy\/sunny days than there is demand for.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their Clean Power 2030 Report, NESO reckoned we would have to throw away 83 TWh of excess wind and solar power in 2030 \u2013 22 TWh curtailed and 61 TWh exported at a loss (they hope!).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year, the figure was 9 TWh.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Constraint Payments Soar To New Record | NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

NESO stressed in their report that their projections assumed full implementation of OFGEM\u2019s network upgrades, so existing bottlenecks are not to blame for the 83 TWh of wasted power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indeed, the Counterfactual scenario, which assumes no accelerated progress, is virtually constraint free \u2013 the \u00a380 billion upgrades will do their job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The extra constraint costs are the direct consequence of building out more and more renewables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, let\u2019s recap:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • OFGEM want to spend \u00a380 billion on upgrading the grid in the next five years, adding \u00a39 billion to electricity bills.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Expansion of intermittent renewable capacity to meet Net Zero targets will necessitate wasting billions of pounds worth of power, when it is too windy or sunny.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Post 2030, tens of billions more will need to be spent to cope with increasing renewable capacity.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Far from reducing bills, this never ending cycle of increasing renewable capacity\/upgrading the grid will inevitably increase them.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Nobody in their right mind would have designed such a system. Unfortunately by the time of the next election, most of the damage will be irreversible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    OFGEM claim that their \u00a380 billion electricity grid upgrade will end up actually reducing bills, by reducing constraint payments.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":442274,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691832749,691832377,691842721,691831352,691818154,691820065],"class_list":{"0":"post-442273","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-clean-power-2030-report","9":"tag-climate-change-act-cca","10":"tag-grid-upgrades","11":"tag-neso","12":"tag-net-zero","13":"tag-ofgem","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/00-Grid-Balancing-Costs-Set-To-Rise-To-8-Billion-By-2030.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1R3r","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":388681,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=388681","url_meta":{"origin":442273,"position":0},"title":"\u00a380 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