{"id":440719,"date":"2026-04-21T05:24:52","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T12:24:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=440719"},"modified":"2026-04-21T05:25:48","modified_gmt":"2026-04-21T12:25:48","slug":"climate-models-fatal-flaws-exposed-major-open-issues-in-detection-attribution-and-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=440719","title":{"rendered":"Climate Models&#8217; Fatal Flaws Exposed: Major Open Issues in Detection, Attribution, and Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"687\" height=\"1024\" data-attachment-id=\"440720\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=440720\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Climate-Models-Fatal-Flaws-Exposed-Major-Open-Issues-in-Detection-Attribution-and-Projections.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"784,1168\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"0 Climate Models&amp;#8217; Fatal Flaws Exposed  Major Open Issues in Detection, Attribution, and Projections\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Climate-Models-Fatal-Flaws-Exposed-Major-Open-Issues-in-Detection-Attribution-and-Projections.jpg?fit=687%2C1024&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Climate-Models-Fatal-Flaws-Exposed-Major-Open-Issues-in-Detection-Attribution-and-Projections.jpg?resize=687%2C1024&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-440720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Climate-Models-Fatal-Flaws-Exposed-Major-Open-Issues-in-Detection-Attribution-and-Projections.jpg?resize=687%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 687w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Climate-Models-Fatal-Flaws-Exposed-Major-Open-Issues-in-Detection-Attribution-and-Projections.jpg?resize=201%2C300&amp;ssl=1 201w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Climate-Models-Fatal-Flaws-Exposed-Major-Open-Issues-in-Detection-Attribution-and-Projections.jpg?resize=768%2C1144&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Climate-Models-Fatal-Flaws-Exposed-Major-Open-Issues-in-Detection-Attribution-and-Projections.jpg?resize=640%2C953&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Climate-Models-Fatal-Flaws-Exposed-Major-Open-Issues-in-Detection-Attribution-and-Projections.jpg?w=784&amp;ssl=1 784w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 687px) 100vw, 687px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Italian physicist Nicola Scafetta<\/strong> has long argued that IPCC climate models (the CMIP ensembles used in AR6 and updates) underestimate solar influences and natural variability while over-relying on greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His latest analysis (a 2026 update or related paper) claims the climate is <strong>4\u20136 times more sensitive to solar forcing <\/strong>(including indirect effects like cloud modulation via cosmic rays) than the IPCC assumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It attributes roughly <strong>50% of warming since 1850 to natural solar-driven variability, ~30% to humans<\/strong>, and ~20% to warm biases in land-surface records, with equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to doubled CO\u2082 around <strong>1\u00b0C <\/strong>(range 0.7\u20131.3\u00b0C). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He also argues models fail to reproduce natural variability or the assumed positive water-vapor\/cloud feedbacks that amplify CO\u2082 warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The IPCC does not say \u201chumans are exactly 100% responsible\u201d in a simplistic way, but its assessments come very close for the modern era. From AR6 (2021, with no major reversal in subsequent updates):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Best estimate of <strong>human-induced warming<\/strong> (1850\u20131900 to 2010\u20132019):<strong> 1.07\u00b0C<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Observed warming: ~1.1\u00b0C (range 0.9\u20131.2\u00b0C for GMST).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Natural forcings (solar + volcanic): <strong>\u20130.1\u00b0C to +0.1\u00b0C<\/strong> (near zero net).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Greenhouse gases: <strong>+1.0\u00b0C to +2.0\u00b0C<\/strong> (partly offset by aerosol cooling of <strong>0.0\u00b0C to \u20130.8\u00b0C<\/strong>).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It is <strong>\u201cunequivocal\u201d<\/strong> that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land, and <strong>\u201cvirtually certain\u201d<\/strong> that internal variability alone cannot explain post-1950 warming. Attribution studies (detection-and-attribution, \u201coptimal fingerprinting\u201d) find human activity explains all or virtually all observed warming since the mid-20th century, with natural factors too small to account for the trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is not based solely on models. It integrates:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Direct observations and energy-budget constraints.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Spatial \u201cfingerprints\u201d (e.g., tropospheric warming + stratospheric cooling matches GHG, not solar).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Paleoclimate records showing current rate is unprecedented over millennia.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Multiple independent lines (satellite, ocean heat content, etc.).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scafetta\u2019s work is published and part of legitimate scientific debate (he has papers in peer-reviewed journals critiquing CMIP performance on decadal\/multidecadal variability, solar reconstructions, and ECS). Key points in his favor that align with broader uncertainties:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Some<strong> CMIP6 models run \u201ctoo hot\u201d<\/strong> (high ECS &gt;4\u20135\u00b0C); IPCC already down-weights them for projections. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cloud feedbacks and aerosol effects remain the largest uncertainties (\u00b1 large ranges).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Solar indirect effects (e.g., via cosmic rays influencing clouds) are debated; some empirical studies suggest amplification beyond direct total solar irradiance (TSI) changes, though IPCC rates the evidence as low confidence and small in magnitude since 1850.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Surface temperature records have known issues (urban heat islands, station siting), though adjustments and multiple datasets (satellites, reanalyses) largely converge on the observed warming.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>However, several issues prevent this from \u201cfundamentally\u201d invalidating IPCC attribution:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Solar forcing is small post-1850.<\/strong> Direct TSI change is 0.1 W\/m\u00b2 or less; even with 5\u00d7 amplification, it struggles to explain the observed ~1.1\u00b0C trend against the much larger, well-measured GHG radiative forcing (2\u20133 W\/m\u00b2 net anthropogenic). Long-term solar trends have been flat or slightly declining since the 1950s peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Models do reproduce key aspects of variability<\/strong> when all forcings (natural + anthropogenic) are included. They match the overall historical temperature trajectory and many patterns. Persistent discrepancies exist (e.g., tropical troposphere, some regional extremes), but these do not erase the GHG fingerprint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Attribution is multi-method. <\/strong>Even without models, energy-budget studies, paleoclimate, and observed ocean heat uptake point to dominant anthropogenic forcing. Scafetta\u2019s alternative (strong solar + low ECS) requires rejecting much of this convergent evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Minority view.<\/strong> Scafetta\u2019s conclusions (low ECS ~1\u00b0C, solar ~50% of warming) are outliers. The broader literature (including recent CMIP analyses) places likely ECS at <strong>2.5\u20134\u00b0C<\/strong> (AR6 assessed range), and natural variability alone cannot explain post-1950 warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scafetta\u2019s work (and similar critiques from researchers like McKitrick, Soon, or Nikolov\/Zeller) usefully highlights <strong>real uncertainties<\/strong>\u2014clouds, solar indirect effects, data biases, and model tuning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Climate science is not \u201csettled\u201d<\/strong> on every detail, and over-reliance on high-ECS models has been criticized even within the mainstream. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, the claim that IPCC models are <strong>fundamentally flawed <\/strong>in a way that overturns ~100% anthropogenic attribution since 1850 does not hold up against the full body of evidence. No paradigm shift has occurred; detection-and-attribution studies remain robust.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Policy implications hinge on risk tolerance: even a lower-end ECS + modest natural variability still projects significant warming under high-emissions paths, with costs from extremes, sea-level rise, and ecosystems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ongoing research (better solar data, cloud-resolving models, improved observations) will narrow uncertainties. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dismissing the human role entirely based on one researcher\u2019s solar-centric analysis would ignore the weight of convergent evidence from physics, observations, and multiple model generations. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The debate is healthy\u2014science advances by testing assumptions, not by declaring victory on either side.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-large-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Detection, attribution, and modeling of climate change: Key open issues<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the&nbsp;<strong>peer-reviewed scientific paper<\/strong> by <strong>Italian physicist Nicola Scafetta<\/strong>, published in <strong>Gondwana Research (April 2026 issue)<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>DOI:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.gr.2025.05.001\">doi.org\/10.1016\/j.gr.2025.05.001<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) global climate models (GCMs) assess that nearly 100% of global surface warming observed between 1850\u20131900 and 2011\u20132020 should be attributed to anthropogenic drivers like greenhouse gas emissions. These models also generate future climate projections based on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), aiding in risk assessment and the development of costly \u201cNet-Zero\u201d climate mitigation strategies. Yet, as this study discusses, the CMIP GCMs face significant scientific challenges in attributing and modeling climate change, particularly in capturing natural climate variability over multiple timescales throughout the Holocene. Other key concerns include the reliability of global surface temperature records, the accuracy of solar irradiance models, and the robustness of climate sensitivity estimates. Global warming estimates may be overstated due to uncorrected non-climatic biases, and the GCMs may significantly underestimate solar and astronomical influences on climate variations. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) to radiative forcing could be lower than commonly assumed; empirical findings suggest ECS values lower than 3 \u00b0C and possibly even closer to 1.1 \u00b1 0.4 \u00b0C. Empirical models incorporating natural variability suggest that the 21st-century global warming may remain moderate, even under SSP scenarios that do not necessitate Net-Zero emission policies. These findings raise important questions regarding the necessity and urgency of implementing aggressive climate mitigation strategies. While GCMs remain essential tools for climate research and policymaking, their scientific limitations underscore the need for more refined modeling approaches to ensure accurate future climate assessments. Addressing uncertainties related to climate change detection, natural variability, solar influences, and climate sensitivity to radiative forcing will enhance predictions and better inform sustainable climate strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Scafetta argues these issues mean CMIP models are not yet reliable for precise attribution or high-ECS projections, favoring empirical approaches that incorporate stronger natural\/solar roles and lower sensitivity. This aligns with a minority of researchers emphasizing under-modeled variability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mainstream assessments (IPCC and most CMIP analyses) view the core attribution as robust: human influence (primarily GHGs) is the dominant driver of observed warming since ~1950, with high confidence. Uncertainties are largest for <strong>regional extremes, decadal predictions, cloud\/aerosol processes, and high-warming tail risks<\/strong>. Progress includes better large ensembles, machine-learning attribution, and process-based constraints (e.g., on clouds). No paradigm shift has overturned the fundamental understanding, but ongoing work (toward CMIP7, improved solar data, cloud-resolving models) continues to refine it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Italian physicist Nicola Scafetta has long argued that IPCC climate models (the CMIP ensembles used in AR6 and updates) underestimate solar influences and natural variability while over-relying on greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. His latest analysis (a 2026 update or related paper) claims the climate is 4\u20136 times more sensitive to solar forcing (including indirect effects like cloud modulation via cosmic rays) than the IPCC assumes. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":440720,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819160,691842411,691842410,691827527,691842408,691834274,691820246,691842409,691842412],"class_list":{"0":"post-440719","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation","9":"tag-climate-change-detection","10":"tag-climate-model-validation","11":"tag-cmip-models","12":"tag-cmip-style-global-climate-models","13":"tag-holocene-climate-optimum","14":"tag-ipcc-ar6","15":"tag-italian-physicist-nicola-scafetta","16":"tag-solar-cycles-and-influence-on-climate","18":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Climate-Models-Fatal-Flaws-Exposed-Major-Open-Issues-in-Detection-Attribution-and-Projections.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1QEn","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":385343,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=385343","url_meta":{"origin":440719,"position":0},"title":"Scafetta: Climate Models Have\u00a0Issues","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/06\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) global climate models\u00a0(GCMs) assess\u00a0that nearly\u00a0100% of global surface warming\u00a0observed\u00a0between 1850\u20131900 and 2011\u20132020 is attributable to\u00a0anthropogenic drivers like\u00a0greenhouse gas emissions.\u00a0These models\u00a0also generate future climate projections based on shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), aiding in risk assessment and the development of costly \u201cNet-Zero\u201d climate mitigation strategies.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/06\/0-CMIP6-climate-models.jpeg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":393316,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=393316","url_meta":{"origin":440719,"position":1},"title":"Climate Oscillations 12: The Causes &amp; Significance","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"While internal variability may play a role in our observed oscillations, it is possible that gravitational forces and changes in solar output provide the pacing of the oscillations. Since all climate oscillations clearly influence the others through a mechanism named \u201cteleconnections,\u201d if the pacing of a few of the oscillations\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"astronomical periods\"","block_context":{"text":"astronomical periods","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=astronomical-periods"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQNPLSWo_KzxXKVbW7IbL7_vsFYRwpeEDr7n4wOji7EYEkkB1n0lKGSzzfQRN21EEW2YTvQtJVQSWUfh7fwAwOb_zqmvvqK2jdNxixoG7mgswXaDvyZS-6qY2mUTFO5a-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":427588,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=427588","url_meta":{"origin":440719,"position":2},"title":"Scafetta: Climate Models Fail to Reproduce the Medieval Warm Period, Undermining Claims of Unprecedented Man-Made Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/02\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Modern climate models are used to support the claim that recent warming is unprecedented and largely man-made. This claim is based on the assumption that the models can accurately reproduce Earth's past climate behavior. But they don\u00b4t. A closer look at Nicola Scafetta's new\u00a0study\u00a0shows that climate models repeatedly fail to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"CMIP6 climate model\"","block_context":{"text":"CMIP6 climate model","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cmip6-climate-model"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-Ma.jpg?fit=1200%2C664&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-Ma.jpg?fit=1200%2C664&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-Ma.jpg?fit=1200%2C664&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-Ma.jpg?fit=1200%2C664&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-Ma.jpg?fit=1200%2C664&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":305607,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=305607","url_meta":{"origin":440719,"position":3},"title":"Climate Model Bias 2: Modeling Greenhouse Gases","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Since the late 19th\u00a0century, with the work by Svante Arrhenius, climate models have been used to estimate the amount of global warming due to human greenhouse gas emissions.[1]\u00a0Due to the complexity of Earth\u2019s weather and climate, the connection between climate change\/global warming and greenhouse gases cannot be observed or measured,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Featured-2-1.webp?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Featured-2-1.webp?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Featured-2-1.webp?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Featured-2-1.webp?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00Featured-2-1.webp?fit=1200%2C714&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":305733,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=305733","url_meta":{"origin":440719,"position":4},"title":"Climate Model Bias 3: Solar Input","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"In\u00a0part 2\u00a0we discussed the IPCC hypothesis of climate change that assumes humans and our greenhouse gas emissions and land use choices are the climate change \u201ccontrol knob.\u201d\u00a0This hypothesis underpins their attempts to model Earth\u2019s climate. But the model output fails to match many critical observations and in some cases the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-42.png?fit=1200%2C872&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-42.png?fit=1200%2C872&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-42.png?fit=1200%2C872&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-42.png?fit=1200%2C872&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/image-42.png?fit=1200%2C872&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":306766,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=306766","url_meta":{"origin":440719,"position":5},"title":"Climate Model Bias 5: Storminess","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It is uncontroversial that temperature gradients, at least in part, power our weather. Heat wants to flow from warmer areas to colder areas as it seeks an equilibrium temperature. On a larger scale, meridional transport is also, in part, a function of the temperature difference between the tropics and the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"AR6 WG1\"","block_context":{"text":"AR6 WG1","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ar6-wg1"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00RS8788_453155009.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00RS8788_453155009.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00RS8788_453155009.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00RS8788_453155009.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/00RS8788_453155009.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=440719"}],"version-history":[{"count":18,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440719\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":440740,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/440719\/revisions\/440740"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/440720"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=440719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=440719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=440719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}