{"id":439097,"date":"2026-04-13T01:13:25","date_gmt":"2026-04-13T08:13:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=439097"},"modified":"2026-04-13T01:13:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-13T08:13:26","slug":"is-a-super-el-nino-coming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=439097","title":{"rendered":"Is a Super El Nino Coming?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

From The Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By CliffMass<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The media is going wild about the potential for a SUPER El Nino developing this year.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

An El Ni\u00f1o of potentially unequaled strength with profound consequences for humanity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

El Nino 101<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a reminder, El Ni\u00f1o and its close counterpart, La Ni\u00f1a, are associated with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, specifically in the area known as the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region (see map below).<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Why do we care about the surface temperatures of the central tropical Pacific?\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because it reveals the state of an important natural atmospheric\/ocean oscillation:\u00a0 ENSO, the El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation, in which warm ocean surface water sloshed back and forth over 4-7 year periods (see below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The warm water enhances cumulus and thunderstorm activity above, which in turn influences the weather of the entire planet (see below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Some terminology:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A weak El Ni\u00f1o has the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 area .5-1 \u00b0C above normal<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A moderate El Ni\u00f1o has the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 area 1-1.5 \u00b0C above normal<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A strong El Ni\u00f1o has the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 area 1.5-2 \u00b0C above normal<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A\u00a0super<\/strong>\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o has the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 area exceeding 2\u00b0C above normal<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Predicting El Ni\u00f1o is important because it has a significant impact on the meteorology of the U.S. West Coast and offers the only reliable source of forecasting skill for extended period predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is little correlation between El Ni\u00f1o and our summer weather, but El Ni\u00f1o winters in the Northwest tend to be warmer than normal with lesser snowfal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a problem we face right now in predicting the El Ni\u00f1o situation next winter:\u00a0 the El Ni\u00f1o Spring Forecast Barrier.\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A reason why the media needs to be very careful about over hyping things right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It turns out that El Ni\u00f1o forecasts made in late winter and spring are often unskillful, while predictions made after July are much better.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00a0Furthermore, statistical prediction models are generally less skillful than dynamical models that actually simulate ocean and atmospheric conditions (see below).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

With all that said, what do the latest El Ni\u00f1o forecasts indicate?\u00a0 Is there an intense SUPER El Ni\u00f1o in our future?\u00a0 \u00a0 The predictions are below for a wide range of models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All models indicate that La Ni\u00f1a (cooler than normal tropical temperatures) will soon be over.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The statistical models (green lines) are predicting a weak El Ni\u00f1o by this fall, while the more skillful dynamical models are going for a weak to moderate El Ni\u00f1o.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Few are predicting a Super El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There is one modeling system that is going for a “Super” El Nino, the European Center’s SEAS5 model (below). It is the source of many of the breathless headlines in the media.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The bottom line?<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are certainly moving towards El Ni\u00f1o conditions, but I would be careful about assuming that the Super El Ni\u00f1o prediction of the European Center is correct, due to the spring forecast barrier and the larger differences between other modeling system forecasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Forecasts are probabilistic, so plan for a range of outcomes rather than betting on the most dramatic scenario.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":439099,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691842235,691818200,691828039,691842236,691818541,691826085],"class_list":["post-439097","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-dynamical-models","tag-el-nino","tag-european-center-model","tag-european-centers-seas5-model","tag-la-nina","tag-super-el-nino","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Qed","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":301633,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301633","url_meta":{"origin":439097,"position":0},"title":"Strong El Nino Conditions Prevails at The End of January 2024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/13\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The classification of El Ni\u00f1o events, including the strength labels, is somewhat subjective and can vary among meteorological and climate agencies. There isn\u2019t a strict rule defining the specific number of consecutive Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) values that must be 2.0\u00b0C or above to categorize an El Ni\u00f1o event as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate model\"","block_context":{"text":"climate model","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-model"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":446603,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446603","url_meta":{"origin":439097,"position":1},"title":"Super El Nino Coming! 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