{"id":439045,"date":"2026-04-12T09:35:55","date_gmt":"2026-04-12T16:35:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=439045"},"modified":"2026-04-12T09:35:58","modified_gmt":"2026-04-12T16:35:58","slug":"cold-kills-massive-u-s-study-finds-cold-weather-causes-20-times-more-heart-deaths-than-heat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=439045","title":{"rendered":"Cold Kills: Massive U.S. Study Finds Cold Weather Causes 20 Times More Heart Deaths Than Heat"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

A new large-scale U.S. study, presented at the American College of Cardiology\u2019s Annual Scientific Session (ACC.26) in March 2026, reinforces a long-standing pattern: cold temperatures pose a far greater mortality risk than heat, particularly for cardiovascular health. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Researchers analyzed ~14.2 million cardiovascular deaths (heart attacks, strokes, coronary disease, etc.) among adults 25+ across 819 U.S. counties (covering roughly 80% of the population) from 2000\u20132020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimal temperature for lowest cardiovascular mortality: ~74\u00b0F (23\u00b0C).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Risk rises on both sides of that point, but the curve is sharply lopsided \u2014 far steeper on the cold side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cold temperatures linked to ~40,000 excess CV deaths per year (6.3% of all cardiovascular deaths) \u2192 ~800,000 total over 20 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hot temperatures linked to only ~2,000 excess deaths per year (0.33%) \u2192 ~40,000 total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ratio: Cold responsible for ~20 times as many excess cardiovascular deaths as heat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most excess deaths occurred on moderately cold days (not extreme freezes), simply because those days are far more common.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Physiologically, cold triggers blood-vessel constriction, higher blood pressure, increased clotting risk, and greater strain on the heart \u2014 especially dangerous for the elderly or those with preexisting cardiovascular conditions. Moderate cold affects far more people over more days than brief heat spikes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data undercuts the narrative that warming is the dominant temperature-related health threat. In cold-winter states like Minnesota (where the prior discussion on climate spending originated), reliable, affordable heating and energy infrastructure are life-saving public-health measures. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policies that raise energy costs \u2014 whether through aggressive emissions penalties, \u201cclimate superfunds,\u201d or rushed grid changes \u2014 can inadvertently increase vulnerability to the far larger cold-related risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Adaptation priorities should reflect the actual burden: winter resilience (home insulation, heating assistance, reliable baseload power) saves far more lives today than speculative long-term heat-mitigation projects. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As populations age and chronic heart disease rises, protecting against the empirically greater killer (cold) is evidence-based risk management, not climate denial.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The study reinforces a consistent global and U.S. pattern: cold months kill far more people than warmer ones, by roughly an order of magnitude. Honest public-health and energy policy would weigh this reality alongside any warming projections.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ScienceDirect<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Title: Cardiovascular disease mortality attributable to monthly non-optimal temperature in the united states: a county-level analysis<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Journal: American Journal of Preventive Cardiology<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Article number: 101514
Available online: 24 March 2026
DOI: 10.1016\/j.ajpc.2026.101514<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lead author: Pedro Rafael Vieira de Oliveira Salerno, MD (Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai \/ NYC Health + Hospitals\/Elmhurst), with co-authors including Ricardo J. Estrada-Mendizabal, Weichuan Dong, Avery Hum, Zhuo Chen, Colin Carpenter, Mohamed Bassiony, Sanjay Rajagopalan, Sadeer Al-Kindi, and Salil V. Deo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a short report (not a full-length original research article), which explains why the ScienceDirect page may show limited free content beyond the title, authors, keywords, and license information. The complete text, figures (including the exposure-response curve), tables, and detailed methods\/results are likely behind the publisher’s paywall or available via institutional access, ResearchGate, or author request.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A closely related 2026 paper by overlapping authors (analyzing 1,514 counties and ~33.4 million all-cause adult deaths) reported even larger absolute numbers: ~72,000 cold-attributable and ~6,100 heat-attributable deaths annually, with social vulnerability (via CDC Social Vulnerability Index) amplifying risks in both directions \u2014 more vulnerable counties had higher MMTs and elevated cold- and heat-related rates.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The U-shaped mortality curve (also called a J-shaped or V-shaped curve in some contexts) is a standard concept in environmental epidemiology. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It describes the nonlinear relationship between daily ambient temperature and the risk of death (mortality).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Researchers plot temperature on the x-axis (cold on the left, hot on the right) and relative risk of death (or excess mortality rate) on the y-axis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The curve forms a U (or skewed J) with the lowest point at the optimal (or minimum mortality) temperature \u2014 the temperature where death rates are lowest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Risk rises symmetrically or asymmetrically as temperatures deviate in either direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bottom (nadir):<\/strong> The “sweet spot” or minimum mortality temperature (MMT). In the recent 2026 U.S. ACC cardiovascular study of 14.2 million deaths, this was ~74\u00b0F (23\u00b0C).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Left arm (cold side):<\/strong> Mortality risk increases as temperatures fall below the MMT. This arm is often longer and gentler at first (moderate cold) but can steepen in extremes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Right arm (heat side):<\/strong> Risk increases as temperatures rise above the MMT. This arm is frequently steeper per degree (extreme heat is more immediately dangerous day-to-day).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The curve is asymmetric (“lopsided”) in most real-world data \u2014 the cold side is broader and accounts for far more total deaths because moderate cold days occur much more frequently than extreme heat days.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new large-scale U.S. study, presented at the American College of Cardiology\u2019s Annual Scientific Session (ACC.26) in March 2026, reinforces a long-standing pattern: cold temperatures pose a far greater mortality risk than heat, particularly for cardiovascular health. Researchers analyzed over 14 million heart-related deaths (from heart attacks, strokes, coronary artery disease, etc.) across 819 U.S. counties from 2000 to 2020. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":439047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-439045","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Cold-Kills-Massive-U.S.-Study-Finds-Cold-Weather-Causes-20-Times-More-Heart-Deaths-Than-Heat1.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Qdn","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":441592,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=441592","url_meta":{"origin":439045,"position":0},"title":"Cold Weather Linked to 40,000 Extra Heart Deaths Each Year in the U.S.","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/27\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Cold exposure triggers a series of well-documented physiological responses in the body, primarily aimed at conserving core body heat. While these are adaptive in healthy people for short periods, they place significant stress on the cardiovascular system, especially in vulnerable individuals (e.g., elderly, those with coronary artery disease, hypertension, heart\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"American Journal of Preventive Cardiology\"","block_context":{"text":"American Journal of Preventive Cardiology","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=american-journal-of-preventive-cardiology"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Cold-Weather-Linked-to-40000-Extra-Heart-Deaths-Each-Year-in-the-U.S.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Cold-Weather-Linked-to-40000-Extra-Heart-Deaths-Each-Year-in-the-U.S.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Cold-Weather-Linked-to-40000-Extra-Heart-Deaths-Each-Year-in-the-U.S.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Cold-Weather-Linked-to-40000-Extra-Heart-Deaths-Each-Year-in-the-U.S.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":342525,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=342525","url_meta":{"origin":439045,"position":1},"title":"Study finds higher heart attack risk days after cold\u00a0exposure","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s amazing how they still manage to find a link to climate change!","rel":"","context":"In \"American College of Cardiology\"","block_context":{"text":"American College of Cardiology","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=american-college-of-cardiology"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0pic.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0pic.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0pic.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0pic.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/09\/0pic.webp?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":393018,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=393018","url_meta":{"origin":439045,"position":2},"title":"New Study: Heatwave-Related Deaths Have Been Declining In Recent Decades","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A comprehensive new data analysis (Walkowiak et al., 2025) involving European countries finds it takes less than 18 years for humans to adapt to a 1\u00b0C increase in mean annual temperature. Consequently, exposure to excessive heat has become less and less deadly.","rel":"","context":"In \"\u201cgreen\u201d policies\"","block_context":{"text":"\u201cgreen\u201d policies","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=green-policies-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPQoHsXAe1RDYgtLbWQE7Zmd9pS1XvSPeSirVSuEw3GtBCbFe1Sti_FQ7psUvEkiYsVFi60RJ9rqZ_JkmnqYZtDTw6f4DveXPAYwX6dWGkDOUV2KVFS68JZ2CMrrDVWR-93SG3N6wHitqhKjn7KZgstHJhatA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPQoHsXAe1RDYgtLbWQE7Zmd9pS1XvSPeSirVSuEw3GtBCbFe1Sti_FQ7psUvEkiYsVFi60RJ9rqZ_JkmnqYZtDTw6f4DveXPAYwX6dWGkDOUV2KVFS68JZ2CMrrDVWR-93SG3N6wHitqhKjn7KZgstHJhatA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPQoHsXAe1RDYgtLbWQE7Zmd9pS1XvSPeSirVSuEw3GtBCbFe1Sti_FQ7psUvEkiYsVFi60RJ9rqZ_JkmnqYZtDTw6f4DveXPAYwX6dWGkDOUV2KVFS68JZ2CMrrDVWR-93SG3N6wHitqhKjn7KZgstHJhatA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPQoHsXAe1RDYgtLbWQE7Zmd9pS1XvSPeSirVSuEw3GtBCbFe1Sti_FQ7psUvEkiYsVFi60RJ9rqZ_JkmnqYZtDTw6f4DveXPAYwX6dWGkDOUV2KVFS68JZ2CMrrDVWR-93SG3N6wHitqhKjn7KZgstHJhatA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/0AQPQoHsXAe1RDYgtLbWQE7Zmd9pS1XvSPeSirVSuEw3GtBCbFe1Sti_FQ7psUvEkiYsVFi60RJ9rqZ_JkmnqYZtDTw6f4DveXPAYwX6dWGkDOUV2KVFS68JZ2CMrrDVWR-93SG3N6wHitqhKjn7KZgstHJhatA-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":340469,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340469","url_meta":{"origin":439045,"position":3},"title":"The Temperature\u2019s Rising","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/23\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"I\u2019m returning to an old subject because the Guardian won\u2019t leave it alone. In\u00a0Losing the Plot\u00a0I criticised a potentially misleading Guardian headline (\u201cExtreme temperatures kill 5 million people a year with heat-related deaths rising, study finds\u201d) by pointing out that the study referenced by the Guardian in that story actually\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"3C or 4C\"","block_context":{"text":"3C or 4C","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=3c-or-4c"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0iStock-812942710.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0iStock-812942710.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0iStock-812942710.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0iStock-812942710.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0iStock-812942710.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":237545,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=237545","url_meta":{"origin":439045,"position":4},"title":"Winter\u2019s Risks Increased By Unaffordable Heating Prices","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/03\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Spare a thought for millions who will be living through an uncertain winter due to unaffordable heating prices. The situation is worse this year because of the energy crisis in Europe, where fuel is scarce and expensive.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-79.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-79.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-79.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-79.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-79.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":278610,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=278610","url_meta":{"origin":439045,"position":5},"title":"Heat v. Cold \u00a0\u2014\u00a0 A Crucial Case","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/13\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"As the planet Earth has slowly warmed, in fits and spurts over the last 3 or 4 hundred years since the end of the Little Ice Age, \u00a0the worries about global average surface temperatures have ramped up.\u00a0 The much-denied Global Cooling Panic of the 1970s morphed into the Global Warming\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Emergency\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Emergency","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-emergency"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Too-Hot-Too-Cold-HI-1.webp?fit=1200%2C771&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Too-Hot-Too-Cold-HI-1.webp?fit=1200%2C771&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Too-Hot-Too-Cold-HI-1.webp?fit=1200%2C771&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Too-Hot-Too-Cold-HI-1.webp?fit=1200%2C771&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Too-Hot-Too-Cold-HI-1.webp?fit=1200%2C771&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439045","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=439045"}],"version-history":[{"count":19,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439045\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":439071,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/439045\/revisions\/439071"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/439047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=439045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=439045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=439045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}