{"id":438711,"date":"2026-04-11T06:12:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-11T13:12:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=438711"},"modified":"2026-04-11T06:12:17","modified_gmt":"2026-04-11T13:12:17","slug":"1504-died-from-heat-last-summer-say-ukhsa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=438711","title":{"rendered":"1504 Died From Heat Last Summer, Say\u00a0UKHSA"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

h\/t Ian Cunningham<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The UK Health Security Agency,\u00a0UKHSA<\/a>, have announced there were an estimated 1,504 heat-associated deaths in England last summer, apparently lower than they had originally forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What \u201cheat-associated deaths\u201d, you might well ask. I doubt whether any death certificates had heat recorded as the cause of death! How can they be so certain that the number is 1504, and not 1503 or 1505?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Strangely, the UKHSA has only been publishing these statistics since 2024. People might therefore reasonably presume that this is just another scare story to sell Net Zero. After all, they never publish excess death statistics for Spring and Autumn, when the death rate is much higher.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional – Office for National Statistics<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Weekly data shows a steady decline in deaths throughout the summer. The table below is compiled from ONS weekly registration of deaths data. (Bear in mind that registration is around a week after the date of death). As weekly registrations are affected by bank holidays, I have calculated averages per working day, ie excluding bank holidays:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

There is a little blip upwards in Week 18, w\/e May 2nd, which almost certainly is a catching up of the backlog that built up over Easter. Also, another blip up in Week 35, which included August Bank Holiday, probably due to extra registrations crammed into the 4-day week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the overall trend is unmistakeable. From the end of winter onwards, there is a steady uninterrupted decline in daily deaths, until they resume their upward trend autumn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So where do the UKHSA get their number from? Having identified a \u201cheat episode\u201d, they explain:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The up-to-28-day baseline period for each heat episode is then identified, comprising the 14 non-episode days before and 14 non-episode days after, up to a maximum of 28 days away from the heat episode. The estimate of observed heat-associated mortality for each heat episode is calculated as the difference between average daily deaths during the heat episode and average daily deaths during the baseline period, multiplied by the number of days in the heat episode<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Office for National Statistics, ONS, has however looked at this topic in great detail on more than one occasion. In their most recent study, they looked at the scorching summer of 2022. Their findings were absolutely clear:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Excess mortality during heat-periods – Office for National Statistics<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

In short, people, who were already close to death, died a few days earlier than they would otherwise have. It was not the heat that killed them, but their underlying disease. As the UKHSA admit, the recorded cause of death in these cases was typically circulatory disease, cancer and dementia. The heatwave did not kill them any more than an April shower or a cold winter\u2019s day could have done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To make matters worse, the UKHSA methodology doubles down on their estimating, because they are comparing against the following 14 days, when death rates are LOWER than normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Far from people dying because of heat, far fewer die in summer than at any other time of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is cold that kills, not heat. According to the ONS, excess deaths between October and March range from 25,000 to 50,000 in some years:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Excess winter mortality in England and Wales – Office for National Statistics<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the UK\u2019s temperate climate, cold weather still causes far more excess deaths each year than heat (typically tens of thousands in winter vs low thousands in summer). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2025 data actually highlights successful adaptation measures rather than an uncontrolled crisis \u2014 even in record warmth, observed impacts were roughly half what historical patterns would have predicted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The full report is here: Heat mortality monitoring report, England: 2025<\/a>. UKHSA has already updated the Adverse Weather and Health Plan for 2026\u20132027 to build on these lessons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The UK Health Security Agency,\u00a0UKHSA, have announced there were an estimated 1,504 heat-associated deaths in England last summer, apparently lower than they had originally forecast.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":438715,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818188,691842219,691820137],"class_list":["post-438711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-excess-deaths","tag-statistical-model","tag-ukhsa","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-1504-Died-From-Heat-Last-Summer-Say-UKHSA.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Q7Z","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":384061,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=384061","url_meta":{"origin":438711,"position":0},"title":"Amber 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