{"id":437948,"date":"2026-04-08T08:19:15","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T15:19:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=437948"},"modified":"2026-04-08T08:48:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T15:48:18","slug":"updated-hurricane-forecast-just-in-time-for-the-climate-conference","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=437948","title":{"rendered":"Updated hurricane forecast just in time for the climate conference"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"723\" data-attachment-id=\"437950\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=437950\" 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data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?resize=723%2C723&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-437950\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?resize=1024%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 1024w, 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https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?resize=640%2C640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?resize=1200%2C1200&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?resize=800%2C800&amp;ssl=1 800w, 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https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?resize=50%2C50&amp;ssl=1 50w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/2026\/04\/08\/updated-hurricane-forecast-just-in-time-for-the-climate-conference\/\">CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/author\/guestauthor47181744466634www-cfact-org\/\">Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For anyone at the conference, if you run into me, I will be more than happy to answer any questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Major points:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The forecast numbers have been taken way down.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Canadian model has been thrown out.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The European indicates a powerful El Ni\u00f1o and a negative AMO \u201clook\u201d.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The closest analog is 2015.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The impact forecast is a roll of the dice.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Impacts will likely be below normal and scattered.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There is always the threat of one (un)lucky punch.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Early-season Gulf or SE system is a concern<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Western Pacific will take up the Global slack.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Eastern Pacific Mexican higher impact season possible<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>The forecast numbers for the 2026 season<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Total storms: 9-13<br>Hurricanes: 3-5<br>Major Hurricanes: 1-2<br>Landfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2<br>Impact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3<br>ACE Index: 85-105<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The closest analog is 2015:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"234\" data-attachment-id=\"438033\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438033\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-100.png?fit=640%2C234&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,234\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-100.png?fit=640%2C234&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-100.png?resize=640%2C234&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438033\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-100.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-100.png?resize=300%2C110&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"358\" data-attachment-id=\"438036\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438036\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-101.png?fit=640%2C358&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,358\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-101.png?fit=640%2C358&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-101.png?resize=640%2C358&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438036\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-101.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-101.png?resize=300%2C168&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This El Ni\u00f1o means business:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"629\" height=\"523\" data-attachment-id=\"438039\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438039\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-102.png?fit=629%2C523&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"629,523\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-102.png?fit=629%2C523&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-102.png?resize=629%2C523&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438039\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-102.png?w=629&amp;ssl=1 629w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-102.png?resize=300%2C249&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 629px) 100vw, 629px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Now that we have a good look at the Euro, its message is strongly bearish on the overall season and well below the averages since 2015.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"522\" data-attachment-id=\"438042\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438042\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-103.png?fit=640%2C522&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,522\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-103.png?fit=640%2C522&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-103.png?resize=640%2C522&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438042\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-103.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-103.png?resize=300%2C245&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>SST forecasts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First of all, the 2023 hyper El Ni\u00f1o season had a nice warm stretch in the Atlantic. The SOI for that El Ni\u00f1o revealed a pattern that in the Pacific was unlike most El Ni\u00f1os, despite the warmth farther to the east and allowed the big numbers we had then.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"355\" data-attachment-id=\"438045\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438045\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-104.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-104.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-104.png?resize=640%2C355&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438045\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-104.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-104.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So that analog has been taken out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The hyper 2024 season, which we picked out in\u00a0December before,\u00a0had the ultimate presentation with a weak La Ni\u00f1a and a large area of warmer-than-average SSTs in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"355\" data-attachment-id=\"438048\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438048\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-105.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-105.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-105.png?resize=640%2C355&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438048\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-105.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-105.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This season is the antilog to that, with warm water split in the Atlantic and a stronger El Ni\u00f1o:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"355\" data-attachment-id=\"438051\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438051\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-106.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-106.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-106.png?resize=640%2C355&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438051\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-106.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-106.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is more like 2015:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"496\" data-attachment-id=\"438054\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438054\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-107.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,496\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-107.png?fit=640%2C496&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-107.png?resize=640%2C496&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438054\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-107.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-107.png?resize=300%2C233&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, I am jumping on that analog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Sea Level Pressure forecast is not favorable either, implying stronger than average low-level easterlies in the Main Development Region at the height of the season:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"355\" data-attachment-id=\"438057\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438057\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-108.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,355\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-108.png?fit=640%2C355&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-108.png?resize=640%2C355&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438057\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-108.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-108.png?resize=300%2C166&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That would increase shear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The CFSv2 shows lower shear to the north of the Main Development Region, which makes sense:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"554\" height=\"390\" data-attachment-id=\"438060\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438060\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-109.png?fit=554%2C390&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"554,390\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-109.png?fit=554%2C390&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-109.png?resize=554%2C390&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438060\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-109.png?w=554&amp;ssl=1 554w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-109.png?resize=300%2C211&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 554px) 100vw, 554px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Again, it also sounds\u00a0a bit of\u00a0an alarm about in-close development, with a puncher\u2019s chance of a major hit. There will be a tendency for development to the north of the Main Development Region,\u00a0and that increases the chances for storms in the Atlantic to stay out there, unless it develops to the\u00a0west of 70\u00b0W.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There is no stopping this El Ni\u00f1o event, as the cumulative buildup of heat has been held back by the La Ni\u00f1a.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"299\" data-attachment-id=\"438063\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438063\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-110.png?fit=640%2C299&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,299\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-110.png?fit=640%2C299&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-110.png?resize=640%2C299&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438063\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-110.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-110.png?resize=300%2C140&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, it\u2019s all there and has been waiting for a burst of low-level westerly winds. This should start as the SOI is reversing:<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"483\" data-attachment-id=\"438066\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438066\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-111.png?fit=640%2C483&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,483\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-111.png?fit=640%2C483&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-111.png?resize=640%2C483&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438066\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-111.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-111.png?resize=300%2C226&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-111.png?resize=200%2C150&amp;ssl=1 200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">As far as landfalls, I have no strong opinion this year. I don\u2019t think this is like the weak El Ni\u00f1o of 2004, which saw Florida get hit with multiple storms. The last El Ni\u00f1o produced a fake major landfall with Idalia, which fell apart completely with no verified wind gust over 90 mph over land. With the water so warm, any storm that develops in close can get in a slugger\u2019s punch. So, we can\u2019t rule out a major hurricane hitting. Overall, though, I believe it is going to be much more in line with scattershot seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Remember though, three El Ni\u00f1o years, 1969, 1976, and 1991, had hits in the Northeast. You have to wonder how long their drought can go on, along with southeastern Florida (landfalls from the southeast).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Early on (before July 15), I am concerned about the Gulf states, including Florida. The Gulf is quite warm. While I am just speculating here, I am expecting higher than average pressures to stick their nose down the plains toward Mexico in May and June.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"526\" data-attachment-id=\"438069\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438069\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-112.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,526\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-112.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-112.png?resize=640%2C526&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438069\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-112.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-112.png?resize=300%2C247&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"526\" data-attachment-id=\"438072\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438072\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-113.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,526\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-113.png?fit=640%2C526&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-113.png?resize=640%2C526&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438072\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-113.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-113.png?resize=300%2C247&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This would force convergence into the Gulf. So that is something to watch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Western Pacific Typhoon season has been remarkably quiet for the last few years, contributing to the overall downturn (slightly) of Global ACE. This is because the Western Pacific is home to close to 60% of the Northern Hemisphere\u2019s normal ACE. There have been only two extremely active years since 2015, and the busiest was 2015, our analog.<\/p>\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"640\" height=\"595\" data-attachment-id=\"438075\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=438075\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-114.png?fit=640%2C595&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"640,595\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-114.png?fit=640%2C595&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-114.png?resize=640%2C595&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-438075\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-114.png?w=640&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-114.png?resize=300%2C279&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Remember, normal there is around 300. So I would prepare for a lot of activity in the Western Pacific. The Eastern Pacific looks normal to a bit above normal, and there will likely be some late-season landfalls on the Mexican coast. Hawaii also has to be wary, as El Ni\u00f1o years have been known to bring problems there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The Verdict<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I have become more impressed with the El Ni\u00f1o forecast and what is going on in the Pacific. The burst of westerlies at 850 mb to the north of the tropics in the Pacific is the strongest on record so early, and the SOI is likely to tank. The very warm Gulf and the late May and June pattern have me concerned about early-season impacts. There have been El Ni\u00f1o years when the Northeast has been hit, but again, unlike other years, I have no strong feeling for where the storms will go. I do have a strong feeling about total numbers, which should be suppressed. Because of in-close development and the warm SSTs, there is a puncher\u2019s chance of a major hurricane landfall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">_____________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cfact.org\/author\/guestauthor47181744466634www-cfact-org\/\">Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of \u201cThe Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won\u2019t Hear From Al Gore \u2014 and Others\u201d which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The forecast numbers for the 2026 season<\/p>\n<p>Total storms: 9-13<br \/>\nHurricanes: 3-5<br \/>\nMajor Hurricanes: 1-2<br \/>\nLandfalling U.S. hurricanes: 1-2<br \/>\nImpact storms on the U.S. when at least a warning is issued: 3<br \/>\nACE Index: 85-105<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":437950,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819287,691818104,691842190,691818870],"class_list":["post-437948","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-el-nino-2","tag-hurricanes","tag-sea-level-pressure","tag-ssts","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/AQMShzzdYfAayARu42hZQhr6pJcJiEKHX0UGYhM9xLQc6j60qrZxwpbb-qMaONb1ybO9LpM-Ja-pudL6HCLJc_pikwvO1l1nSFFM-BvyEJCOClWU8DhP7dDD4yW-OADacfcnYtwJI6CGevdhh6KkIZHL2df2dA.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1PVG","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":446161,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=446161","url_meta":{"origin":437948,"position":0},"title":"GOOD NEWS: NOAA predicts a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/23\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA released its official 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook on May 21, 2026, and it does call for a below-normal season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2026 Atlantic hurricane season\"","block_context":{"text":"2026 Atlantic hurricane season","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2026-atlantic-hurricane-season"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-GOOD-NEWS-NOAA-predicts-a-below-normal-2026-Atlantic-hurricane-season.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":444596,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=444596","url_meta":{"origin":437948,"position":1},"title":"Scorecard: How Well Does NOAA\u2019s Hurricane Outlook Actually Perform? 26 Years of Forecasts vs. Reality","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/16\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"NOAA\u2019s May Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlooks perform modestly well at hitting their probabilistic ranges (roughly 65-70% hit rate for named storms\/hurricanes over ~25 years), but they show limitations like under-forecasting in hyperactive seasons, occasional big misses, and skill that is better for broad \"above\/near\/below normal\" direction than precise counts.","rel":"","context":"In \"forecast\"","block_context":{"text":"forecast","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=forecast"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/05\/0-How-Well-Does-NOAAs-Hurricane-Outlook-Actually-Perform.jpg?fit=1168%2C784&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":259473,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=259473","url_meta":{"origin":437948,"position":2},"title":"NOAA predicts a near-normal 2023 Atlantic hurricane season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/28\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Hurricanes are only neat and exciting when they are happening someplace else to someone else.\u00a0 Up close, they are dangerous even for those well prepared.","rel":"","context":"In \"Hurricanes\"","block_context":{"text":"Hurricanes","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=hurricanes"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/0Hurricane-4.jpeg?fit=1200%2C745&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":279071,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279071","url_meta":{"origin":437948,"position":3},"title":"A Stunningly Good Hurricane Forecast","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/17\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Numerical weather prediction has improved dramatically over the past decades, providing potent warnings for extreme weather, such as hurricanes. There are few better examples than the prediction of\u00a0Hurricane Lee, which will make landfall near the Maine\/New Brunswick border late Saturday.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate-related deaths\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate-related deaths","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-related-deaths"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0hurricane-lee-satellite-20230916-1251.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0hurricane-lee-satellite-20230916-1251.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0hurricane-lee-satellite-20230916-1251.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0hurricane-lee-satellite-20230916-1251.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/0hurricane-lee-satellite-20230916-1251.jpg?fit=1200%2C630&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":272891,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=272891","url_meta":{"origin":437948,"position":4},"title":"Hurricane update","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"08\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The Power and Impact scale rates the storm intensity during the highest impact (they do not have to make \u201clandfall\u201d, just cause the conditions).","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/image-479.png?fit=1200%2C844&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":412307,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=412307","url_meta":{"origin":437948,"position":5},"title":"Hurricane Forecast Was Overly Alarmist (Again)\u2026Atlantic Season Ending Near Normal","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted\u00a0that an above average Atlantic hurricane season\u00a0for 2025.","rel":"","context":"In \"catastrophe prophets\"","block_context":{"text":"catastrophe prophets","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=catastrophe-prophets"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/AQN6N02xsfBE-OSOofSRtyamKpQY6hvhm2tBf5769db6-tFS1WwqPiIf2mKSgccE4G5Q7ovqTNj2ST06c21jdU0Weo3lL8fiadLtXGXxco_I6Pn1wJkWX_-6As1c24XRMP4eOI0ZOnVqzI6M8IiRWLl6RxeZ1w.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, 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