{"id":435819,"date":"2026-03-31T11:17:25","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T09:17:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=435819"},"modified":"2026-03-31T11:17:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T09:17:27","slug":"does-low-snowpack-increase-the-chances-of-washington-state-wildfires","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=435819","title":{"rendered":"Does Low Snowpack Increase the Chances of Washington State Wildfires?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

From Cliff Mass Weather Blog<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By CliffMass<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You hear this all the time in the media and by climate advocacy groups:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A below-normal snowpack means enhanced wildfire danger in Washington State.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some samples are shown below:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

_________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n

__________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The truth is that such claims are not true.\u00a0 \u00a0Snowpack variability has very little correlation with the area of local wildfires.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other meteorological conditions are FAR more important than snowpack regarding wildfire acreage and the large wildfires in our region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The facts are very clear<\/strong>.\u00a0 \u00a0To demonstrate the lack of relationship between snowpack and wildfire area, below is a plot of April 1 snowpack (the standard measure)–shown by the blue line– and the annual acreage of burned area–red line– for Washington State for 2002 to 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You will notice very little correlation between the two lines.<\/strong>\u00a0 Snowpack has ups and downs, perhaps a slight downward trend.\u00a0 Wildfire acreage has wild excursions that generally are not associated with changes in snowpack.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of the 24 years shown, only ONE (2015) had a combination of low snowpack and large wildfire area.\u00a0 But it was NOT because of snowpack.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The year was unusual for other reasons, with a crazy, persistent summer ridge of high pressure over the region, that produced very anomalous high temperatures–something shown below, and lack of summer precipitation.\u00a0\u00a02015 was the hottest summer on record in our region.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

he facts are very clear.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Snowpack has very little to do with regional wildfires.\u00a0 \u00a0High temperature during the summer is a major contributor, since it contributes to drying of surface fuels.\u00a0 \u00a0High winds are a contributor to some of the biggest fires, since winds can fan and spread the flames, and can contribute to fire ignition (e.g, from wildfires).\u00a0 Low summer relative humidity is a contributor.\u00a0 Low summer precipitation can contribute since that leads to low fuel moisture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Snowpack has little to do with our local wildfires.<\/strong>\u00a0 During a normal year, the snowpack has generally melted by early summer over the lower to middle elevations where most wildfires occur. Remember, most of wildfire are in mid-summer to early fall.\u00a0 \u00a0Interestingly, above-normal snowfall can contribute to MORE wildfires if it provides moisture for more vegetative growth.\u00a0 Vegetation that later dries and becomes flammable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why is the Seattle Times and others providing obviously false information to the public about snowpack and wildfire?<\/strong>\u00a0 Even Google’s AI knows better:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"\/<\/a><\/figure>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

You hear this all the time in the media and by climate advocacy groups:<\/p>\n

A below-normal snowpack means enhanced wildfire danger in Washington State.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":435833,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691836235,691818811,691819288,691823139,691818913],"class_list":["post-435819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-climate-advocacy-groups","tag-media","tag-snowpack","tag-washington-state","tag-wildfires","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Pnl","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":460646,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=460646","url_meta":{"origin":435819,"position":0},"title":"Are the Recent Northwest Wildfires a Sign of Global Warming? 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