{"id":434768,"date":"2026-03-27T10:18:38","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T17:18:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=434768"},"modified":"2026-06-02T18:13:48","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T01:13:48","slug":"climate-models-discover-yet-another-thing-co2-can-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=434768","title":{"rendered":"Climate Models Discover Yet Another Thing CO2 Can Do"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Charles Rotter<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new paper makes the rounds, and at first glance it seems to offer yet another twist in the climate narrative: carbon dioxide, the molecule typically cast as the principal agent of warming, can apparently induce cooling\u2014at least over India, at least in summer, and at least within the confines of a particular modeling framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-026-69875-2<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

hat alone should give pause to anyone who has been told the \u201cscience is settled.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper in question\u2014\u2014states its central claim plainly:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cIncreasing atmospheric CO2<\/sub>\u00a0concentrations can also induce summertime cooling over India.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This is presented as a \u201cpreviously underappreciated mechanism,\u201d one in which greenhouse gas forcing reorganizes atmospheric circulation in such a way that clouds increase, sunlight decreases at the surface, and temperatures fall locally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Abstract<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In response to anthropogenic forcing, the Earth\u2019s surface generally warms as greenhouse gases trap outgoing longwave radiation. Counterintuitively, however, some regions exhibit surface cooling against this global warming background\u2014a phenomenon known as a warming hole. Beyond the well-documented warming holes over the North Atlantic and southeastern United States, here we show that increasing atmospheric CO2<\/sub>\u00a0concentrations can also induce summertime cooling over India. Due to the direct radiative effect of CO2<\/sub>, warming of the Eurasian continent relative to surrounding oceans, low-level moisture transport and vertical motion are enhanced over India. Combined with abundant summer-monsoon moisture and the topographic blocking effects of the Himalayas and Hindu Kush Mountains, these circulation changes increase cloud cover. The resulting cloud enhancement reduces incoming solar radiation at the surface, producing the observed regional cooling. These results reveal a previously underappreciated mechanism whereby greenhouse gas forcing can paradoxically induce regional cooling through atmospheric dynamical pathways.

https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-026-69875-2<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The authors even acknowledge the counterintuitive nature of the result:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThese results reveal a previously underappreciated mechanism whereby greenhouse gas forcing can paradoxically induce regional cooling\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cParadoxically\u201d is doing a lot of work here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because if a forcing mechanism can produce both warming and cooling depending on how a model is configured, then what exactly is being predicted\u2014and with what degree of confidence?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The exercise rests heavily on CMIP6 model ensembles, including both atmosphere-only simulations and coupled models. In one setup, CO\u2082 is quadrupled while sea surface temperatures are held fixed. That is not a description of the real world; it is a controlled numerical experiment designed to isolate specific mechanisms. The authors are explicit about this:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cWhen the sea surface temperature is fixed to its present-climate level and atmospheric CO2\u00a0<\/sub>concentration is quadrupled\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

That phrase\u2014\u201csea surface temperature is fixed\u201d\u2014is worth lingering on. Oceans are not optional components of Earth\u2019s climate system. They dominate heat capacity, transport, and variability. Removing their feedbacks to isolate an effect may be useful for theory, but it also creates a scenario that has no direct physical analogue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One could just as easily fix cloud cover, or wind patterns, or humidity, and observe what happens. The question is whether such exercises meaningfully inform real-world expectations\u2014or simply demonstrate what a model is capable of producing when sufficiently constrained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And what do these models produce? A strikingly wide range of outcomes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe maximum cooling ranges from \u22122.55 to \u22120.68 K across the models\u2026 with maximum cooling ranging from \u22129.93 to \u22120.20 K across the models.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

A spread from roughly \u22120.2 K to nearly \u221210 K is not a minor uncertainty. It is an order-of-magnitude variability. That range alone raises questions about robustness. If the same forcing produces radically different magnitudes across models, then the mechanism is highly sensitive to internal assumptions\u2014parameterizations of clouds, convection, moisture transport, and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet the paper still describes the signal as \u201crobust.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a recurring feature of climate modeling literature: agreement on direction is often treated as sufficient, even when magnitude varies wildly. But for policy purposes, magnitude is everything. A cooling of \u22120.2 K is barely detectable; \u221210 K would be catastrophic. Grouping those outcomes under a single conceptual umbrella stretches the meaning of \u201crobust\u201d beyond usefulness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The mechanism itself is a chain of modeled interactions. CO\u2082 increases, Eurasia warms more than surrounding oceans, pressure gradients shift, winds strengthen, moisture transport increases, clouds form, and incoming solar radiation decreases:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe reduction in downward solar radiation is the dominant contributor to the surface cooling\u2026 linked to enhanced cloud cover.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This is a classic example of a feedback cascade. Each step depends on parameterizations that are known to be among the least certain elements in climate models\u2014especially clouds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clouds have long been the Achilles\u2019 heel of climate modeling. Small changes in cloud microphysics or distribution can flip outcomes from warming to cooling. The authors effectively demonstrate this sensitivity: alter circulation slightly, and cloud cover increases enough to offset radiative forcing locally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the system is highly nonlinear, and small modeling choices can produce qualitatively different results. This is an observation about the system itself and it complicates the notion that models can reliably project regional outcomes decades into the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper also introduces seasonal and geographic specificity that further narrows the applicability of the result. The cooling appears:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cconfined primarily to the boreal summer\u2026 coinciding with the Indian summer monsoon.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Outside those months, the same region warms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So now the story becomes: CO\u2082 causes warming globally, except where it causes cooling, except when it doesn\u2019t, depending on season, topography, moisture availability, and circulation patterns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That may be accurate as a description of model behavior. But as a basis for sweeping policy decisions, it introduces a level of complexity that is rarely communicated to the public.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors go further, suggesting policy implications that border on ironic:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe projected decline in CO2 concentration\u2026 may, counterintuitively, contribute to warming over India.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So reducing CO\u2082 could lead to warming\u2014at least regionally, at least in this framework.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At this point, one might ask whether the variable being targeted by policy is even the dominant driver of local climate outcomes. If CO\u2082 increases can cool a region, and CO\u2082 decreases can warm it, then the relationship between emissions and regional temperature is anything but straightforward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To their credit, the authors emphasize complexity:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cThe results highlight the complexity of regional climate responses\u2026\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

That is probably the most defensible statement in the entire paper.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where this analysis intersects with skepticism is not in denying that such mechanisms could exist within models. It is in questioning what these exercises demonstrate\u2014and what they do not.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They demonstrate that models can generate a wide variety of outcomes under different assumptions. They demonstrate that feedbacks can be tuned, amplified, or suppressed depending on configuration. They demonstrate that new \u201cmechanisms\u201d can be identified whenever attention is directed toward a particular region or variable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What they do not demonstrate is that these mechanisms operate in the real world with the same strength, consistency, or predictability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reliance on multi-model ensembles is often presented as a strength. Twelve models here, forty-eight there. But if those models share structural similarities\u2014and they do\u2014the ensemble is not a collection of independent experiments. It is a family of related hypotheses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Agreement within that family does not necessarily translate to agreement with reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The paper attempts validation by comparing model outputs with observational datasets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cMost models display a reasonably centered root-mean-square error\u2026 providing a robust basis for subsequent analysis.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cReasonably centered\u201d is a flexible standard. Models can match broad spatial patterns while still diverging significantly in dynamics, feedbacks, and sensitivities. Matching a climatology does not guarantee accurate response to perturbations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To be fair, the authors are not claiming predictive certainty. They are identifying a mechanism within a modeling framework. That is a legitimate scientific exercise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the broader narrative that often accompanies such findings\u2014that climate science has reached a point where policy can be dictated with high confidence\u2014sits uneasily alongside results like these.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If CO\u2082 can produce cooling through one pathway and warming through another, if regional outcomes depend on finely balanced feedbacks, if model outputs span an order of magnitude, then the system remains deeply uncertain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This places climate science squarely in the domain of ongoing, speculative, research, where hypotheses are tested, revised, and sometimes overturned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a policy perspective, the question becomes one of proportionality. How much confidence is required before implementing large-scale interventions in energy systems, agriculture, and economic structures?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the underlying science continues to reveal new mechanisms, new sensitivities, and new uncertainties, then caution seems warranted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also a pattern worth noting. Each decade seems to produce new \u201cpreviously underappreciated mechanisms.\u201d Ocean circulation shifts, aerosol effects, land-use changes, irrigation impacts, and now CO\u2082-induced cloud feedbacks leading to cooling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One could interpret this as progress\u2014science uncovering finer details of a complex system. That is certainly one interpretation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another interpretation is that the system is so complex, and the models so sensitive, that new explanations can always be found to reconcile discrepancies between expectations and observations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The work is not meaningless. It adds to the catalogue of possible interactions within the climate system. But it also underscores how far the field is from a unified, stable understanding of regional climate dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And perhaps that is the most important takeaway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not that CO\u2082 causes cooling over India in summer under certain modeled conditions. But that the climate system continues to resist simple characterization, and that each new \u201cmechanism\u201d adds another layer of conditionality to already complex projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For those advocating sweeping, irreversible policy changes based on model outputs, that growing complexity presents a challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For those inclined toward skepticism, it reinforces a basic principle: suspend judgment, examine assumptions, and resist the temptation to treat evolving models as settled fact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The models can produce warming. They can produce cooling. They can produce both at once, depending on where and when one looks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question is how confidently those outputs can be translated into real-world expectations\u2014and whether that confidence justifies the scale of the policies being proposed in their name.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A new paper makes the rounds, and at first glance it seems to offer yet another twist in the climate narrative: carbon dioxide, the molecule typically cast as the principal agent of warming, can apparently induce cooling\u2014at least over India, at least in summer, and at least within the confines of a particular modeling framework.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":434777,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691818153,691842043,691818087,691818355,691818237,691820367,691842042],"class_list":["post-434768","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-carbon-dioxide-co","tag-climate-models","tag-coupled-model-intercomparison-project-phase-six-cmip6","tag-global-warming","tag-greenhouse-gas","tag-india","tag-solar-radiation","tag-summer-cooling","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AQNUhZjz4DuyUUCEV0SCRjaAoB9n_0_ycERTZwTSq84nql787w2eMaTzC9IqiMxXBs5o5KwF-TRWFrnLuSToXA19lNu9oWWKiRhZvTyEwpRE4_WI_ZpJ1sxj2IQUg8Q.jpeg?fit=1402%2C935&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1P6o","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":425713,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425713","url_meta":{"origin":434768,"position":0},"title":"Why Climate Science Is Not Settled","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/11\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The repeated claim that climate science is \u201csettled\u201d overlooks myriad uncertainties, competing mechanisms and computer models that miss the mark when tested against reality. 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From Science Matters By\u00a0Ron Clutz Mark Adams explains\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"0.04% (400 parts per million)\"","block_context":{"text":"0.04% (400 parts per million)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=0-04-400-parts-per-million"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-541.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-541.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-541.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-541.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-541.png?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":239643,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=239643","url_meta":{"origin":434768,"position":4},"title":"Ian Plimer Asks, \u201eWhat Climate Crisis?\u201c","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/14\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"No past warming events have been driven by an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. No past cooling events were driven by a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-634.png?fit=1200%2C848&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":299049,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=299049","url_meta":{"origin":434768,"position":5},"title":"Carbon Dioxide Causes Much Less Warming Than is Commonly Believed, New Paper Finds","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/30\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Further holes have been blown in the \u2018settled\u2019 scientific view that humans are responsible for all or most of the changes in the climate by burning hydrocarbons. Three scientists, including Atmospheric Professor Yi Huang of McGill University, have reduced by nearly 40% the basic amount of warming caused by a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/OIGP-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/OIGP-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/OIGP-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/01\/OIGP-1.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434768","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=434768"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434768\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":434778,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/434768\/revisions\/434778"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/434777"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=434768"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=434768"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=434768"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}