{"id":431346,"date":"2026-03-15T12:53:05","date_gmt":"2026-03-15T11:53:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=431346"},"modified":"2026-03-15T12:53:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-15T11:53:07","slug":"a-windy-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=431346","title":{"rendered":"A Windy Day!"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Paul Homewood<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

When it\u2019s a windy day, guess what? We get a lot of wind power!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday we got 60% of our power from wind:<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\"\"
National Grid: Live<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

It does not take a genius to work out that when Ed Miliband succeeds in tripling wind power capacity, there will be far too much wind power for the grid to handle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I have analysed the half hourly generation data for the full winter just gone. It\u2019s a fairly basic summary, but my model assumes a tripling of wind output, 4400 MW of fixed nuclear generation and existing demand profile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It calculates that there will be 19 TWh of surplus wind power during those periods when wind and nuclear exceed demand. Obviously there will be other periods when wind and nuclear cannot supply all demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever battery storage we have by 2030 will be far too tiny to make any difference, so most of that 19 TWh will have to be constrained. At a going rate of \u00a3100\/MWh, that could cost \u00a31.9 billion. And this is just for winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With much lower demand in summer and plenty of solar power as well, plenty more surplus electricity will have to be chucked away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem is probably much worse still. Although I have not factored in higher demand, the increased proportion of offshore wind in the mix will increase wind generation above my projections.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is also the issue of grid stability. I cannot see how the grid can operate stably with above 90% of generation coming from wind at times. Including some dispatchable power to stabilise the grid will automatically increase the projected surpluses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thirdly is the question of regional imbalances. Will the grid be able to cope with large amounts of wind power coming from Scotland and the North Sea? It is, of course, lack of transmission capacity which results in constraint payments to Scottish wind farms. OFGEM is busy spending tens of billions upgrading the grid, but whether even that will cope in future must be debatable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of the surpluses are massive, as much as 32 MW on one occasion. Surpluses were above 20 MW on 16% of the three month period. The model also predicts that more than half of wind generation will have to be constrained for 10% of the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The practical difficulties faced by NESO in having to implement all of this, every half hour are mid boggling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Just a glance at yesterday\u2019s generation shows how huge the problem is. Demand was 35.9 GW. Of that, 21.5 GW came from wind and 3.4 GW from nuclear. Triple that wind capacity and you are looking at about 68 GW from wind and nuclear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Half of that will have to be switched off on average, and more at times of low demand.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

When it\u2019s a windy day, guess what? We get a lot of wind power!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":431355,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_seo_schema_type":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691831352,691820065,691823573,691818852],"class_list":["post-431346","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-neso","tag-ofgem","tag-the-grid","tag-wind-power","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Odc","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":249409,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=249409","url_meta":{"origin":431346,"position":0},"title":"Prominent physicist warns that wind power \u201cfails on every count\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/24\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"A prominent physicist has warned that the UK is facing the likelihood of a failure in the electricity supply and calls for a reset of national energy policy.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1030.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1030.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1030.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1030.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/image-1030.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":269419,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=269419","url_meta":{"origin":431346,"position":1},"title":"Manchester plans world\u2019s largest battery to tackle intermittent wind\u00a0energy","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/25\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"What the storage plant will do is make a decent profit by buying power at low prices during time of surplus, and selling it back at high prices when supplies are tight because of the intermittency of wind power. And guess who will end up paying for those profits?","rel":"","context":"In \"Battery plants\"","block_context":{"text":"Battery plants","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=battery-plants"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-768.png?fit=1200%2C447&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-768.png?fit=1200%2C447&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-768.png?fit=1200%2C447&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-768.png?fit=1200%2C447&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/image-768.png?fit=1200%2C447&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":406778,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=406778","url_meta":{"origin":431346,"position":2},"title":"Stay Safe!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Met Office has kindly told us how to stay safe when it\u2019s windy!","rel":"","context":"In \"Driving safely\"","block_context":{"text":"Driving safely","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=driving-safely"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQOn0HgVGh2EjFlIiBJFlu2A2N-x0B08qly5BcvbXExIoiBbxyoWQyCQdQWdZf7UwzHVFd2SJKsxstRPeR3lM2woCFe-zheLPDCByAmfLt-VgyBGyVDEbPu31iOaZz0-1.png?fit=675%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQOn0HgVGh2EjFlIiBJFlu2A2N-x0B08qly5BcvbXExIoiBbxyoWQyCQdQWdZf7UwzHVFd2SJKsxstRPeR3lM2woCFe-zheLPDCByAmfLt-VgyBGyVDEbPu31iOaZz0-1.png?fit=675%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/0AQOn0HgVGh2EjFlIiBJFlu2A2N-x0B08qly5BcvbXExIoiBbxyoWQyCQdQWdZf7UwzHVFd2SJKsxstRPeR3lM2woCFe-zheLPDCByAmfLt-VgyBGyVDEbPu31iOaZz0-1.png?fit=675%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":288846,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=288846","url_meta":{"origin":431346,"position":3},"title":"Grand \u2018Green\u2019 Energy Flop: Europeans Wake Up to Wind & Solar\u00a0Debacle","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/27\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"STOP THESE THINGS The results of attempting to rely on sunshine and breezes can\u2019t be hidden forever. 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From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT By Paul Homewood h\/t George\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Dunkelflaute\"","block_context":{"text":"Dunkelflaute","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=dunkelflaute"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0LightningStrikingWindTurbine-MidlandTexas.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0LightningStrikingWindTurbine-MidlandTexas.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0LightningStrikingWindTurbine-MidlandTexas.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0LightningStrikingWindTurbine-MidlandTexas.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/0LightningStrikingWindTurbine-MidlandTexas.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":423011,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=423011","url_meta":{"origin":431346,"position":5},"title":"Constraint Payments Soar to New\u00a0Record","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/25\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The cost is actually overstated, because we would still need to pay for one lot of electricity anyway. 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