{"id":430739,"date":"2026-03-12T20:58:02","date_gmt":"2026-03-12T19:58:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=430739"},"modified":"2026-03-12T20:58:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-12T19:58:04","slug":"right-financial-times-climate-models-dont-accurately-reflect-sea-levels","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=430739","title":{"rendered":"Right, Financial Times, Climate Models Don\u2019t Accurately Reflect Sea Levels"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From Climate Realism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Linnea Lueken<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Financial Times (FT) recently posted an article titled \u201cSea levels already \u2018much higher\u2019 than many scientists had estimated<\/a>,\u201d claiming that sea level rise is even more concerning than previously believed because modelled sea level estimates used in many climate change studies are generally lower than actual sea level measurements. The importance of the finding, however, is not what the story reports. The story notes that present sea levels are not catastrophic. Also, the present rate of sea level rise, whether based on satellite calculations or as measured by tide gauges, is very gradual. Seaside communities have the ability to overcome any threat from rising seas through normal civil engineering efforts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

FT reports on a recent study from The Netherlands\u2019 Wageningen University, published in Nature<\/em><\/a>. According to the authors of the study, most coastal planning including planning for flooding and sea level rise is based on \u201cGeoid\u201d model estimates of coastal sea-level height and land elevation. Yet, like general circulation models, the outputs of these models are only as good as the data and assumptions built into them. In this case, the authors of the study found that that \u201cactual sea levels are on average about 30cm higher globally than estimates produced by the usual scientific models,\u201d with differences emerging particularly in Southeast Asia and Oceania. FT says that in those regions, \u201cthe ocean is one to 1.5 meters higher on some coastlines than most impact assessments have assumed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is notable because it means that many climate impact assessments for coastal communities have been designed from the wrong starting point, projecting future sea levels and problems from them, in many instances at levels that already are the case. The problems they anticipate under future climate change driven sea levels should already be evidenced, but they aren\u2019t. Garbage in, Garbage out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because those coastal communities seriously miscalculated the sea level starting point, the study project\u2019s leader, Philip Minderhoud, warned that this could mean the \u201cthe impacts from sea-level rise will happen sooner than projected before.\u201d Yet, that seems wrong, since sea levels are already at where the coastal planning estimates they will be decades in the future. If these problems don\u2019t exist now, the planning is wrong from the start about possible impacts. The study does not show that seas are rising faster than they have historically. Thus, planning should begin from where coastlines actually are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That means, take them in relation to current sea levels, with future estimates based on rates of rise under recent climate change \u2013 not, as is done with this study, based on IPCC estimates tied to unrealistic emissions scenarios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate Realism<\/em> has long pointed out (here<\/a>, here<\/a>, and here<\/a>, for example) that factors such as land subsidence are reflected in measurements of sea level rise, which makes it difficult to gauge how much local sea level rise has occurred and will occur in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The FT sought comments from Anders Levermann, of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, concerning the implications of the study, who forecast, \u201ceventually\u201d we will see a sea level rise of \u201cthree to four meters,\u201d though he admits average sea level has only risen about 20cm, or about 7 inches, over the past century. \u201cEventually\u201d could be technically right, though in this case eventually would mean 1,000 to 2,000 years from now. That\u2019s not an immediate catastrophe and a time interval over which no model, set of models, or estimates by so-called experts should be trusted or used to shape policies affecting people today and for the next several centuries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, there is significant scientific doubt that sea level rise is accelerating at all. Another recent Dutch study, published in the Journal of Marine Science and Engineering<\/em><\/a>, examined sea level measurements from more than 200 tide gauge stations worldwide. They found that the average global rate of sea level rise has been about 15 centimeters per century. This, and the 20 cm rate estimated in the Nature<\/em> study, are both lower rates than experienced over much of the past 15,000 years. At either of these rates, coastal communities have centuries to adapt to rising seas or mitigate them by hardening infrastructure, or even by moving communities inland, if that is deemed necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors of the Journal of Marine Science and Engineering<\/em> study acknowledge that sea level rise projections by groups like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are biased upwards by 2mm per year compared to accurate measurements as recorded by tide gauges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, other recent studies looking at the contributions of Antarctic<\/a> ice melt, and ice sheet models<\/a> in general, have found that many climate scientists rely too heavily on models rather than data. As a result, they are likely overstating how much sea level rise could be added in the future by melting ice at the north and south poles, or even if ice sheet decline will consistently continue in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The new study reported on by FT is interesting, but it is certainly not alarming. If sea levels along the world\u2019s coastlines are consistently at or near the heights coastal community planners estimated in the future would mean disaster, then it is good news. That\u2019s because those communities aren\u2019t experiencing the disasters the planners were concerned about. As a result, it does not follow that people should be even more concerned now about future rise, especially sea levels 1,000 to 2,000 years in the future, by which time the climate could have shifted again and the Earth headed back to a new glacial cycle. We just don\u2019t know.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Available data show there is no acceleration in recent rates of sea level rise as measured by tide gauges, as opposed to the rates of rise calculated by satellites. Fifteen or even 20 centimeters per century is not the end of the world. Coastal cities have handled much steeper rates of rise in the past. There is no reason to think, with the time involved and the pace of technological change, coastal cities can\u2019t adapt to similar changes in the future.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Financial Times (FT) recently posted an article titled \u201cSea levels already \u2018much higher\u2019 than many scientists had estimated,\u201d claiming that sea level rise is even more concerning than previously believed because modelled sea level estimates used in many climate change studies are generally lower than actual sea level measurements. The importance of the finding, however, is not what the story reports. The story notes that present sea levels are not catastrophic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":430740,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818056,691833848,691838206,691841865,691818737,691818989,691841864],"class_list":{"0":"post-430739","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-change","9":"tag-coastal-cities","10":"tag-journal-of-marine-science-and-engineering","11":"tag-netherlands-wageningen-university","12":"tag-potsdam-institute-for-climate-impact-research","13":"tag-sea-levels","14":"tag-the-financial-times-ft","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/01103489-sea-905440_1280.jpg?fit=1280%2C960&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1O3p","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":400629,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=400629","url_meta":{"origin":430739,"position":0},"title":"No Evidence Climate Change Has Accelerated Sea Level Rise","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/09\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate change will make oceans rise 3 - 10 feet by the end of this century, said scientists and the media. 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Mediterranean Sea branded \u2019staggering \u2018, due to scientists \u201ausing a vital new method \u2018","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/11\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"Vastly higher? Enormous? Staggering? \u2013 should we be shocked? 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