{"id":428094,"date":"2026-02-26T17:26:57","date_gmt":"2026-02-26T16:26:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=428094"},"modified":"2026-02-26T17:26:59","modified_gmt":"2026-02-26T16:26:59","slug":"south-fork-wind-malinformation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=428094","title":{"rendered":"South Fork Wind Malinformation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roger Caiazza<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Christopher Walsh\u2019s latest article in the Easthampton Star, South Fork Wind\u2019s Electricity Generation Proves Reliable<\/a> repeats claims from the developer that the facility provides reliable energy.  An infographic<\/a> prepared for the U.S. Department of War\u2019s Defense Counterintelligence Security Agency, defines malinformation as  sabotage because it is based on fact but is used out of context to mislead, harm, or manipulate.  Walsh\u2019s article is based on fact, but the information presented is used out of context to mislead readers into believing that the South Fork offshore wind facility provided reliable electric generation to the grid during this winter\u2019s extreme period. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Climate Leadership & Community Protection Act<\/a> (Climate Act) includes a specific target for 9,000 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2035.   \u00d8rsted\u2019s South Fork Wind<\/a> is the only New York operational offshore wind facility.  It has 12 turbines with 132 MW of capacity.  There are two other New York offshore wind facilities under construction<\/a> (Empire Wind 1, 810 MW and Sunrise Wind, 924 MW) but both had work suspended in December when the Trump administration issued a stop-work order suspending the lease. A federal judge issued a temporary injunction in January 2026 allowing construction to resume while the legal case proceeds.Clearly, the Climate Act mandate for 9,000 MW of offshore wind is in jeopardy.  The question is whether that is a bad thing or not.  Walsh\u2019s article argues that it is a bad thing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cReliable\u201d South Fork Wind<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Walsh\u2019s article is quoted below with my annotations.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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As the Trump administration pledges to appeal all five court rulings that sided with offshore wind farms under construction on the Eastern Seaboard, and Canadian officials call on the industry to shun the United States in favor of the ocean off its shores, developers of South Fork Wind, the nation\u2019s first commercial-scale offshore wind farm, are pointing to its reliable generation of electricity in its second year of operation and during this winter\u2019s extreme cold.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Renewable advocates focus on energy production, but power systems are built around reliability during peak demand. If you look at the grid through the lens of accredited capacity, that is, capacity that can be relied upon during peak demand \u2013 instead of average energy, the resource allocations for different technologies look radically different.  This is the energy vs. power capacity distinction that Walsh ignored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The 12-turbine, 132-megawatt farm, electricity from which makes landfall in Wainscott, achieved a 46.3-percent capacity factor in 2025. \u201cCapacity factor\u201d refers to real-world performance, or the ratio of energy generated versus the maximum theoretical output of an installation running at its full rated capacity around the clock. For offshore wind, typical values are between 20 and 40 percent, reflecting intermittent wind speeds, maintenance downtime, and site efficiency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In January of this year, South Fork Wind delivered a 52-percent capacity factor, comparable to New York State\u2019s most efficient gas plants. Output at offshore wind farms in the Northeast \u2014 South Fork Wind, the smaller Block Island Wind, and Vineyard Wind 1, which is still under construction \u2014 is typically at its strongest during winter months, when energy supplies on Long Island are often constrained.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I take exception to the claim that the 52% capacity factor is comparable to gas plants.  If a gas plant was only limited by maintenance downtime  it can easily achieve an 85-percent annual capacity factor but more importantly they can be dispatched by the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) as necessary to match loads including peak load conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The NYISO January <\/a> Operations Performance Metrics Monthly Report includes a graph of net statewide wind and solar performance total monthly production and capacity factors (Figure 1).  These data show that the January 2026 monthly capacity factors for all New York State wind facilities was 38%, Behind the Meter (BTM) rooftop solar was 3% and  the Front of the Meter (FTM) utility-scale solar was 6%.  Offshore wind facilities are expected to perform better than onshore wind facilities and this is clearly shown by the South Fork Wind performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: Net Wind and Solar Performance Total Monthly Production and Capacity Factors<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Source: NYISO <\/em>January<\/em><\/a>Operations Performance Metrics Monthly Report<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The article goes on:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Over the course of 2025, South Fork Wind generated electricity on 99 percent of all days and across 90 percent of all hours, according to its developers, the Danish energy company Orsted and the German company Skyborn Renewables. The developers assert that the wind farm generates electricity sufficient to power 70,000 average-size residences.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

These claims have the reliability challenge exactly backwards.  South Fork Wind did not generate electricity on 1 percent of all days or at least 3 whole days and across 10 percent or 876 of all hours.  The problem is that peak loads are commonly associated with high-pressure systems that suppress wind generation.  As a result South Fork Wind was likely unavailable when needed most.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This effect was seen during the January 24 to January 27, 2026<\/a> winter storm.  Following the storm there was a period of prolonged sub-freezing weather that caused a peak in the electric load.  Table 1 lists daily extrapolated statewide capacity factors from Figure 2.  Consider January 31 when the statewide capacity factors were BTM solar 2%, FTM solar 9%, and wind 12%.  The total daily renewable energy capacity factor was 10% and only provided 2% of the system\u2019s daily load.  Data from individual facilities are not available but the hourly statewide data indicate that wind capacity was less than 10% for 13 hours including the morning and evening peak loads.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Table 1: New York Renewable Energy Capacity Factors in late January 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Figure 2: Net Wind and Solar Performance Total Daily Production and Capacity Factors<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
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Source: NYISO <\/em>January<\/em><\/a>Operations Performance Metrics Monthly Report<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Wind Farm Status<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The remainder of the article goes on but I think it is a marketing plea by an offshore wind advocate. I don\u2019t want to waste my time responding and yours reading it..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Discussion<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

If the New York electric system were to rely primarily on wind, solar, and energy storage then this extended period of light winds, low solar availability, and snow-covered solar panels simply cannot provide the power when needed the most.  State agencies responsible for electric system reliability agree that a new dispatchable, emissions free resource<\/a> is needed for these periods but admit that there isn\u2019t any such resource available today.  Given that there is no such technology available, proceeding under the assumption that one will magically appear is an enormous risk for reliability. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

New York currently has an energy affordability crisis because as of December 2024<\/a>, over 1.3 million households are behind on their energy bills by sixty-days-or-more, collectively owing more than $1.8 billion.  Climate Act costs are already<\/a> between 8.5 and 13.7% of monthly electric bills. The combined weighted average price<\/a> revised contracts for the offshore wind projects under construction is $150.15\/MWh.  NYISO reports<\/a> that the average New York wholesale electric price in 2025 was about 74.40 dollars per MWh, up from 41.81 dollars per MWh in 2024.  Those costs do not include the price of dedicated transmission lines to get the energy to where it is needed.  Adding offshore wind at costs double the current cost of electricity will only exacerbate the energy crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Environmental<\/a> recently published a post that provided inspiration for this article.  Misinvestment, Disinvestment, Malinvestment<\/a> describes the result:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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There is no shortage of narratives that:<\/p>\n\n\n\n