{"id":427737,"date":"2026-02-24T16:50:39","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T15:50:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=427737"},"modified":"2026-02-24T16:50:41","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T15:50:41","slug":"wrong-oceanographic-magazine-sea-level-rise-in-hawaii-is-not-a-looming-catastrophe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=427737","title":{"rendered":"Wrong, Oceanographic Magazine, Sea Level Rise in Hawaii Is Not a Looming Catastrophe"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Climate Realism<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Anthony Watts<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Oceanographic Magazine<\/em> (OM) recently published the article \u201cMost Hawaiins are already feeling the affects of sea level rise<\/a>\u201d by Eva Cahill on February 17, 2026, asserting that Hawaii residents are already experiencing the impacts of rising seas and that it is accelerating. This framing is false, unsupported by local data. The actual long-term measurement record at Honolulu shows that sea levels are rising at less than half the rate that OM claims.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOver the past three decades, the rate of global sea level rise has doubled, with the best estimate of the rate of global-average rise over the last decade being 3.6 millimeters per year,\u201d the article states, continuing, \u201c83% believe that the impacts of sea level rise will be catastrophic within the next 50 years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These claims are debunked by actual data, and thus the people\u2019s fears of catastrophe are unwarranted. As the graph below show, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration\u2019s (NOAA) long-running Honolulu tide gauge record<\/a>, the rate of sea level rise there has not measurably increased during the recent period of modest warming, and is far below, less than half in fact, of the 3.6mm rate of rise in the last decade claimed by OM.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Figure 1. The relative sea level trend is approximately 1.56 millimetres per year, with a 95 percent confidence interval of \u00b10.20 mm\/year, based on data extending back to 1905. The same NOAA page expresses that as about 0.51 feet per century, which is roughly six inches in 100 years, not a foot, and certainly not an acceleration to 1.18 feet per century (3.6 mm\/year) at this location. Source: NOAA Tides and Currents.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Local relative sea level, measured by tide gauges, is the only real direct measurement of sea level rise and it is what determines flooding risk on O\u02bbahu. Satellite measurements from space are a calculation, based on a model. Thus, it is an indirect measurement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This distinction matters because sea level does not \u201coperate\u201d uniformly at the state level. Local trends reflect regional ocean dynamics, vertical land motion, and multi-decadal variability. NOAA\u2019s tide gauge station description for Honolulu notes that interannual and decadal fluctuations are influenced by factors such as ENSO and broader Pacific circulation patterns. Short-term peaks during strong El Ni\u00f1o events<\/a> can create the impression of sudden jumps, but the century-scale record smooths those oscillations and shows a far more modest rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That rise measured by the Honolulu tide gauge is not trivial, and it requires sensible coastal planning. But it is not the kind of rapid rise implied when a global satellite-era average is presented as if it defines local reality. The 3.6 mm\/year figure cited by OM refers to a recent global-average estimate derived primarily from satellite altimetry, not a site specific measurement. Further, a recently published peer reviewed paper<\/a> suggests that the satellite data has serious errors in it, saying:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Statistical tests were run on all selected datasets, taking acceleration of sea level rise as a hypothesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In both datasets, approximately 95% of the suitable locations show no statistically significant acceleration of the rate of sea level rise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

OM also leans heavily on public perception, citing survey results about \u201ccatastrophic\u201d expectations. But beliefs are not measurements; what determines long-term shoreline change is not a survey but sediment budgets, reef health, storm patterns, and vertical land motion. That is why it is important to consider the growing body of research on island dynamics, summarized in my colleague H. Sterling Burnett\u2019s article \u201cRising Seas Aren\u2019t Swamping Small Island Nations<\/a>,\u201d which discusses peer-reviewed findings that many reef islands and atolls have remained stable or increased in area over recent decades due to sediment transport and reef-driven processes. The article notes that islands are dynamic landforms, shaped continuously by waves and currents, not static platforms waiting to drown.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Climate at a Glance\u2019s<\/em> \u201cIslands and Sea Level Rise<\/a>\u201d also highlights studies showing that numerous Pacific Islands have maintained or expanded their land area even as global sea level has risen. That does not mean every shoreline is stable, but it does mean the simplistic narrative that rising seas automatically translate into uniform land loss is not supported by the empirical record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With regard to Hawai\u2019i in particular, volcanic activity has increased the size of the main island, adding height, mass, and acreage. From January 1983 to September 2002, lava flows added 543 acres to the island. An additional 875 acres<\/a> were added from May to July 2018 alone as a result of lava flow from the 2018 lower Puna eruption. In short, Hawai\u2019i is increasing in size even in the face of modest sea level rise \u2013 as is true for other islands as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

None of these facts argue against prudent adaptation. Limiting development in flood-prone areas, improving building standards, and preserving natural buffers are common-sense policies regardless of whether the rise is 1.5 mm\/year or 3.6 mm\/year. But presenting a global satellite number as if it accurately describes Hawaii\u2019s observed coastal trend is misleading in the extreme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oceanographic Magazine<\/em> conflates global statistics, public anxiety, and local coastal management into a single storyline of impending doom. The actual sea level measurements at Honolulu report relatively slow sea level rise. That is not climate reporting grounded in observation; it is advocacy framed as inevitability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n


<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oceanographic Magazine (OM) recently published the article \u201cMost Hawaiins are already feeling the affects of sea level rise\u201d by Eva Cahill on February 17, 2026, asserting that Hawaii residents are already experiencing the impacts of rising seas and that it is accelerating. This framing is false, unsupported by local data. The actual long-term measurement record at Honolulu shows that sea levels are rising at less than half the rate that OM claims.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":427749,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691821788,691828892,691841616,691819269,691820037],"class_list":{"0":"post-427737","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-hawaii","9":"tag-national-oceanic-and-atmospheric-administrations-noaa","10":"tag-oceanographic-magazine-om","11":"tag-satellite-measurements","12":"tag-sea-level-rise-2","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0oahu1.png?fit=768%2C1376&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1NgZ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":238693,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=238693","url_meta":{"origin":427737,"position":0},"title":"Sea level is stable around the world","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its coastal sea level tide gauge data which continue to show no evidence of accelerating sea level rise.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-375.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-375.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-375.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-375.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/image-375.png?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":362826,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=362826","url_meta":{"origin":427737,"position":1},"title":"Surprise! The North Atlantic Current is Stable","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/01\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Another nail in the coffin of climate models? A study published in Nature suggests there is no evidence for a decline in AMOC over the last 60 years.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-21-073653.png?fit=1198%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-21-073653.png?fit=1198%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-21-073653.png?fit=1198%2C672&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-21-073653.png?fit=1198%2C672&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/0Screenshot-2025-01-21-073653.png?fit=1198%2C672&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":406756,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=406756","url_meta":{"origin":427737,"position":2},"title":"Sea Level Rise Hoax Exposed: The Disappearing Islands That Refuse To Disappear","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/10\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Germany\u2019s Klimanachrichten here publishes an article titled \u201cThe Disappearing Islands (That Don\u2019t Want to Disappear)\u201d summarizes findings suggesting that the widespread assumption about low-lying islands inevitably sinking due to rising sea levels is too simplistic and detached from reality.","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMB_CovPZcjqizqXGHHmqbSeJIpyf21Q5yqFBsQk-tnSLMUPI-L5ZZ6W_peHHAfeVS2sh4lmHSNsONlvKac5hpCbcjweA1uODNbmQst0yJK6SBN6HYkAP5o0mTe2WiAkQMte-MUx7qM0OddM7o18N0fd2_M7g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMB_CovPZcjqizqXGHHmqbSeJIpyf21Q5yqFBsQk-tnSLMUPI-L5ZZ6W_peHHAfeVS2sh4lmHSNsONlvKac5hpCbcjweA1uODNbmQst0yJK6SBN6HYkAP5o0mTe2WiAkQMte-MUx7qM0OddM7o18N0fd2_M7g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMB_CovPZcjqizqXGHHmqbSeJIpyf21Q5yqFBsQk-tnSLMUPI-L5ZZ6W_peHHAfeVS2sh4lmHSNsONlvKac5hpCbcjweA1uODNbmQst0yJK6SBN6HYkAP5o0mTe2WiAkQMte-MUx7qM0OddM7o18N0fd2_M7g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMB_CovPZcjqizqXGHHmqbSeJIpyf21Q5yqFBsQk-tnSLMUPI-L5ZZ6W_peHHAfeVS2sh4lmHSNsONlvKac5hpCbcjweA1uODNbmQst0yJK6SBN6HYkAP5o0mTe2WiAkQMte-MUx7qM0OddM7o18N0fd2_M7g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/AQMB_CovPZcjqizqXGHHmqbSeJIpyf21Q5yqFBsQk-tnSLMUPI-L5ZZ6W_peHHAfeVS2sh4lmHSNsONlvKac5hpCbcjweA1uODNbmQst0yJK6SBN6HYkAP5o0mTe2WiAkQMte-MUx7qM0OddM7o18N0fd2_M7g.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":379907,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=379907","url_meta":{"origin":427737,"position":3},"title":"CNN Lies in its AMOC Collapse Story: Another Flip-Flop in a Long Line of Alarmist Claims","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent CNN article by Laura Paddison, titled \u201cA crucial system of ocean currents is slowing. It\u2019s already supercharging sea level rise in the US,\u201d\u00a0references new research on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to claim the current is slowing down leading to rising seas and costly, deadly coastal flooding.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-overturning-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2Screenshot-2025-02-16-160758.png?fit=1200%2C593&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2Screenshot-2025-02-16-160758.png?fit=1200%2C593&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2Screenshot-2025-02-16-160758.png?fit=1200%2C593&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2Screenshot-2025-02-16-160758.png?fit=1200%2C593&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/2Screenshot-2025-02-16-160758.png?fit=1200%2C593&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":432403,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=432403","url_meta":{"origin":427737,"position":4},"title":"Climate Fact-Check February 2026","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"19\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Editor\u2019s note: This compilation serves as a fact check on the top false claims made about climate change by the media in February, 2026. Climate Change Is NOT Worsening Wildlife Viruses \u2013 NOT Harming Coffee Production \u2013 \u2018Global Warming\u2019 NOT Causing More Snow \u2013 Sea Level Rise NOT a looming\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0february-2026.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0february-2026.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0february-2026.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0february-2026.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/0february-2026.png?fit=1200%2C672&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":377112,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=377112","url_meta":{"origin":427737,"position":5},"title":"Sorry, PBS, Population Growth and Infrastructure, Not Climate Change, Are Causing Rhode Island\u2019s Water Woes","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Two recent stories from the Rhode Island Public Broadcasting Systems (PBS) claim that climate change is threatening the state\u2019s drinking water, specifically by way of drought and sea water influx into aquifers. This is mostly false. While sea levels are rising, PBS exaggerates the rise. There is no evidence that\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0homes-4798259_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0homes-4798259_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0homes-4798259_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0homes-4798259_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0homes-4798259_1280.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427737","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=427737"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427737\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":427751,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427737\/revisions\/427751"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/427749"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=427737"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=427737"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=427737"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}