{"id":427563,"date":"2026-02-23T14:48:28","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T13:48:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=427563"},"modified":"2026-02-23T14:48:31","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T13:48:31","slug":"heat-pumps-efficient-on-paper-complicated-in-reality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=427563","title":{"rendered":"Heat Pumps: Efficient on paper, complicated in reality"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr. Lars Schernikau: Energy Economist, Commodity Trader, Author (recent book \u201c<\/em>The Unpopular Truth\u2026 about Electricity and the Future of Energy<\/em><\/strong><\/a>\u201d<\/em><\/strong>)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Details inc the full Blog are available at <\/em>www.unpopular-truth.com<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Heat pumps are having a moment. Governments promote them, utilities love them, and they are, now more often than ever, described as an obvious replacement for fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas), fueled heating. The basic idea sounds great\u2026a heat pump works like a reverse refrigerator. Instead of \u201cpushing heat out, it pulls heat in\u201d. That heat can come from the air outside your house or from the ground below it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The International Energy Agency (IEA)<\/strong> sums up the enthusiasm nicely. \u201cHeat pumps<\/em><\/strong>, powered by low<\/em>\u2010<\/em>emissions electricity, are the central technology in the global transition to secure and sustainable heating. Heat pumps currently available on the market are three<\/em>\u2010<\/em>to<\/em>\u2010<\/em>five times more energy efficient<\/strong> than natural gas boilers<\/em>. That statement contains three big claims:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(1) heat pumps are three to five times more efficient,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(2) they run on \u201clow-emission\u201d electricity, and<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(3) they are secure and sustainable<\/p>\n\n\n\n

All three deserve a closer look, so here we go\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1.    Why heat pumps really are efficient\u2026 at the device level<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There is a solid reason, rooted in physics, behind why heat pumps are attractive. Transferring heat from one place to another takes much less energy than generating heat from scratch by burning fuel. Under favorable conditions, a heat pump might use one unit of electricity to move three units of heat. This is where the famous \u201cthree to five times more efficiency\u201d number comes from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But here is the catch! That number is not efficiency in the everyday sense. It\u2019s called the Coefficient of Performance<\/em> (COP)<\/strong>, and COP is not the same thing as system efficiency. To start with, a heat pump relies on electricity, while a gas or oil boiler mostly relies on chemical energy and needs very little electricity to operate. You can keep a boiler running with a small backup battery\u2026 but you cannot do that with a heat pump\u2026 the three to one number forgets the (in)efficiency of the electricity required from the grid\u2026 and you and I know how complex that grid is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2.Electricity doesn\u2019t just \u201carrive\u201d for free<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The \u201cthree to five times more efficiency\u201d claim, quietly assumes that electricity arrives at your home with no losses. But in reality, electricity available 24\/7\/365 has to be generated, transmitted, balanced, and backed up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On average, roughly 2.5 to 3 units of primary energy are needed to deliver one unit of electricity to your socket when thermal power plants are involved, as they mostly are.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

That means using electricity \u201c100% efficiently\u201d at home starts, at the system level, at only 30 to 40% efficiency. Wind and solar changes the accounting by introducing their own challenges, among them being the need for overbuild, short duration storage, long duration storage, thermal backup and larger and more complex network integration and transmission infrastructure. Once these are considered, wind and solar dominant systems do not outperform coal, gas, or nuclear in net energy efficiency but actually underperform. Think about energy density, intermittency, and the short operational lifetime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3.Heat pumps struggle when you need them most<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Another unpopular truth that raises the temperature\u2026 or does it?\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The colder it gets, the more the performance of heat pumps decline.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When winter hits and heating demand peaks, the heat pump performance COP drops. This is especially true for air-source heat pumps as ground-source systems tend to perform a bit better, even though they are more expensive, slow to install, and often impractical in densely populated cities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This creates a nasty feedback loop\u2026 because just as heat pumps need more electricity during cold spells, solar output tends to be low, wind can be unreliable, and grids are already under pressure on top of the dropping COP. In winters coal and gas plants are usually ramped up to secure the electricity supply. So even if your annual electricity mix looks \u201cgreen,\u201d the marginal power that keeps your heat pump running during a cold snap is more often than not fossil-based<\/em><\/strong>\u2026 do you see the feedback loop?<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

4.Peak power is the real bottleneck<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Electrifying heating doesn\u2019t just increase electricity consumption; it increases peak power demand<\/em><\/strong>\u00a0in winters when power system is already strained. Grids must be built for the coldest, darkest, calmest winter evenings, not for yearly averages. The IEA projects that peak electricity demand grows far faster than total electricity demand due to heat pumps, electric vehicles, data centers, and AI. When demand spikes, coal, oil, gas and nuclear fill the gap. That is why the idea of heat pumps running on wind and solar often collapses under real winter conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

5. Security and sustainability depend on where you live<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If you are in rural Scandinavia with abundant hydropower and a very secure grid, heat pumps could make more sense, but in large cities with fragile grids, the picture changes completely. In urban areas, air-source \u201cmonoblock\u201d heat pumps are popular because they are cost-effective and easy to install. However, they are noisier, lose efficiency in winter, and are vulnerable during power outages. When the power goes out during freezing weather, circulation stops, water freezes, pipes burst, and systems can be a complete write-off. After some recent winter blackouts (Berlin end December 2025), many heat pumps didn\u2019t come back online even after electricity was restored.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now imagine there is an armed conflict or cyber-attack? Do you feel safer with a heat pump or with a standard gas- or oil-based boiler?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s be honest\u2026from an energy security standpoint, heat pumps seem flaky. From a sustainability standpoint, powered by energy systems that require massive overbuilding, short lifetimes, and heavy material use it is questionable at best and deserves some skepticism and allot of discussion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summary \u2013 So where do heat pumps actually fit?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Heat pumps are neither a universal solution nor a dead end. They work best, out in the country, where grids are reliable, electricity is reliable, or where winter temperatures are moderate. But in a city setting, district heating combined with large ground- or water-source heat pumps and thermal storage is likely more appropriate than widespread deployment of individual units.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One last reality check we should consider is that\u2026 adoption closely follows subsidies. When subsidies drop, sales drop. That doesn\u2019t make heat pumps bad, but it does suggest they are not the obvious, no-brainer solution they are often made out to be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Heat pumps are efficient machines, sure, but whether they actually contribute to an efficient, secure, and sustainable energy system depends on too many elements around them. One thing is for sure, heat pumps cannot make oil and gas boilers go extinct<\/em><\/strong>\u2026 and anyone telling you otherwise is disingenuous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Read the full analysis here:<\/strong>
https:\/\/unpopular-truth.com\/2026\/02\/14\/heat-pumps-for-all\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Heat pumps are having a moment. Governments promote them, utilities love them, and they are, now more often than ever, described as an obvious replacement for fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas), fueled heating. The basic idea sounds great\u2026a heat pump works like a reverse refrigerator. Instead of \u201cpushing heat out, it pulls heat in\u201d. That heat can come from the air outside your house or from the ground below it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":427571,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819635,691833733,691818198,691820835,691818206,691819148,691841603,691818299,691818728],"class_list":["post-427563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-coal","tag-coefficient-of-performance-cop-2","tag-heat-pumps","tag-international-energy-agency-iea","tag-nuclear-power","tag-oil-and-gas","tag-peak-power","tag-subsidies","tag-wind-and-solar","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0Screenshot-2026-02-23-143422.png?fit=1490%2C756&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1Neb","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":252089,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252089","url_meta":{"origin":427563,"position":0},"title":"German Professor Warns Of Country\u2019s Pending \u201cHeat Pump Disaster\u201d\u2026\u201dSaves No CO2\u2033\u2026Painful Costs","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Germany\u2019s proposed heating policies will lead to a disaster, experts warn.\u00a045 billion euros will get ZERO CO2 savings!","rel":"","context":"In \"Blackout\"","block_context":{"text":"Blackout","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=blackout"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-Blackout-Germany.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-Blackout-Germany.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-Blackout-Germany.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-Blackout-Germany.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-Blackout-Germany.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":252077,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252077","url_meta":{"origin":427563,"position":1},"title":"Fritz Vahrenholt: The heat pump disaster","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Where the Federal Government derives a future cost advantage from remains a mystery, because it pursues a policy of electricity shortages.","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00prof.-dr.fritz-vahrenholt-1024x477-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C477&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00prof.-dr.fritz-vahrenholt-1024x477-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C477&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00prof.-dr.fritz-vahrenholt-1024x477-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C477&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/00prof.-dr.fritz-vahrenholt-1024x477-1.jpg?fit=1024%2C477&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":245286,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=245286","url_meta":{"origin":427563,"position":2},"title":"Where Does The Telegraph Get Its Dopey Journalists From?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/24\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Reporters would have been fired in the past for writing nonsense like this! Heaven help us all!","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-715.png?fit=900%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-715.png?fit=900%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-715.png?fit=900%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/image-715.png?fit=900%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":279381,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=279381","url_meta":{"origin":427563,"position":3},"title":"A Heated Debate","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"09\/19\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"In\u00a0Hot Off The Press\u00a0I reported on a Guardian article that appeared on 30th\u00a0May this year, seeking to spin a survey on heat pumps. To my mind, the survey was much more equivocal regarding satisfaction with heat pumps than the Guardian piece suggested. Well, now they\u2019re at it again, with\u00a0another article,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"coefficient of performance (COP)\"","block_context":{"text":"coefficient of performance (COP)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=coefficient-of-performance-cop"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Shining-freezing.webp?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Shining-freezing.webp?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Shining-freezing.webp?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Shining-freezing.webp?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/00Shining-freezing.webp?fit=1200%2C899&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":252020,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252020","url_meta":{"origin":427563,"position":4},"title":"Heat Pumps Are For The Rich\u2026Maintenance Costs, Amortization Times Higher Than Gas Furnaces","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/09\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"In the good old days, governments were there to improve our lives and to make energy cheaper. But those days are gone in Europe, and especially in Germany. Now governments are finding ways to make living and energy as expensive as possible.","rel":"","context":"In \"German government\"","block_context":{"text":"German government","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=german-government"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0panasonic-heat-pump-installed-outside.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0panasonic-heat-pump-installed-outside.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0panasonic-heat-pump-installed-outside.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0panasonic-heat-pump-installed-outside.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0panasonic-heat-pump-installed-outside.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":255330,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=255330","url_meta":{"origin":427563,"position":5},"title":"Irony: German Bundestag Admits Conversion To Heat Pump Systems For Its Own Buildings Not Possible!","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"04\/29\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Yet, expects its own citizens to convert their homes beginning next year!","rel":"","context":"In \"Bundestag (Federal Parliament)\"","block_context":{"text":"Bundestag (Federal Parliament)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=bundestag-federal-parliament"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0w1900_h1266_x1500_y1000_DPA_bfunk_dpa_5F9AD0007E17C240-9c6465f0d372a6b2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0w1900_h1266_x1500_y1000_DPA_bfunk_dpa_5F9AD0007E17C240-9c6465f0d372a6b2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0w1900_h1266_x1500_y1000_DPA_bfunk_dpa_5F9AD0007E17C240-9c6465f0d372a6b2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0w1900_h1266_x1500_y1000_DPA_bfunk_dpa_5F9AD0007E17C240-9c6465f0d372a6b2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0w1900_h1266_x1500_y1000_DPA_bfunk_dpa_5F9AD0007E17C240-9c6465f0d372a6b2.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=427563"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427563\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":427573,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427563\/revisions\/427573"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/427571"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=427563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=427563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=427563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}