{"id":427039,"date":"2026-02-19T17:26:41","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T16:26:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=427039"},"modified":"2026-02-19T17:26:44","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T16:26:44","slug":"texas-showdown-ercot-vs-winter-storm-fern","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=427039","title":{"rendered":"Texas Showdown: ERCOT vs Winter Storm Fern"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Watts Up With That?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Guest \u201clong-time, no-posts\u201d by David Middleton<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texans recently experienced our worst winter storm since Uri in February 2021. Here in the DFW area, the temperature dropped below freezing early on Saturday morning, January 24, and stayed below 32 \u00b0F until the afternoon of January 27. In Dallas, we experienced freezing rain, sleet and snow for two straight days (January 24-25).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
https:\/\/www.timeanddate.com\/weather\/usa\/dallas\/historic?month=1&amp;year=2026<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Fern impacted about half of the Lower 48\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
2026-01_20260125_WeatherAlerts.
https:\/\/www.nesdis.noaa.gov\/news\/noaa-satellites-monitor-massive-winter-storm<\/a>
<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Things were so rough that alleged energy expert and frequent ERCOT critic Ed Hirs was predicting<\/a> the imminent collapse of the grid on Saturday afternoon\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The heavy stuff won\u2019t be here until later, and the ERCOT<\/a> grid is already showing stress.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

But\u2026 Somehow the ERCOT grid held up just fine\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Winter Storm Fern \u2013 January 2026<\/strong>
Summary<\/strong>
During Winter Storm Fern, ERCOT successfully managed the Texas electric grid through a period of extreme cold and freezing precipitation, utilizing available tools and resources to ensure electricity demand was met safely and reliably. The statewide grid performed well; ERCOT did not need to call for conservation, did not issue an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA), and there were no systemwide power outages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ERCOT<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Any guesses as to which generation fuel carried the load?<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. (ERCO) electricity generation by energy source 1-na24-2026 \u2013 1-28-2026, Central Time,\u00a0EIA Hourly Grid Monitor<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Natural gas carried the load, despite the fact that more gas production was shut-in due to\u00a0freeze-offs<\/a>\u00a0than during Uri.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Bennett Williams, LinkedIn<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

How could this be? Firstly, natural gas production in January 2026 was about 20 Bcf\/d higher than it was in February 2021. And, secondly, more than enough gas was available in storage to cover the short-fall.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

While the deep freeze temporarily spiked natural gas prices to >$30\/mcf, prices quickly fell back to pre-fern levels.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
EIA<\/a>
Natural gas literally kicked @$$!<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

From January 24 through January 27, fossil fuels and nuclear power delivered 77% of the electricity, wind delivered delivered a fairly steady 15% and the combination of solar power and batteries delivered a paltry 8% of the electricity generation desoite this\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Solar Gains Traction
Texas managed to install as much solar power capacity to its grid last year as it did in 2024, despite the lack of federal support and with the additional pressure of tariffs, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the range of headwinds, the Dallas Fed said utility-scale solar power will remain an important source of energy for the grid in Texas for years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Texas is the top state for utility-scale solar power generation. Industrial Info is tracking 25 solar projects in the state in the construction phase with a high probability of completion that are worth an estimated $9.5 billion. Greenalia Power U.S. is behind the largest of those, with a $1.04 billion project slated for Childress, Texas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Link<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

If ERCOT only had more solar power and batteries!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Solar actually performed very well on the afternoon of January 26, nearly knocking coal off the grid for an hour or two\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck\u2026 Peak solar delivery occurred right when demand was bottoming out. When solar power works as intended, it totally disrupts the reliable components of the grid. Fortunately, it rarely works as intended. Just two days earlier, solar delivered almost nothing\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Texans recently experienced our worst winter storm since Uri in February 2021. Here in the DFW area, the temperature dropped below freezing early on Saturday morning, January 24, and stayed below 32 \u00b0F until the afternoon of January 27. In Dallas, we experienced freezing rain, sleet and snow for two straight days (January 24-25).<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":427062,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818128,691826368,691819749,691841507,691818577,691841092],"class_list":{"0":"post-427039","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-energy","9":"tag-ercot-electric-reliability-council-of-texas","10":"tag-gas-production","11":"tag-solar-power-and-batteries","12":"tag-texas","13":"tag-winter-storm-fern","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0Screenshot-2026-02-19-172128.png?fit=1493%2C750&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1N5J","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":423715,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=423715","url_meta":{"origin":427039,"position":0},"title":"Winter Storm Wrecks Power Lines as Hundreds of Thousands are Still Without Power","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"29\/01\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"A major winter storm has swept across much of the United States in late January 2026, bringing heavy snow, freezing rain, and ice that have caused widespread damage, particularly to power infrastructure. The storm's freezing rain coated trees, branches, and power lines with thick ice, leading to snapped limbs, downed\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"baseload power\"","block_context":{"text":"baseload power","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=baseload-power"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQPPCoZyCzhCdvZt9TlAvvOYxQUV4lQSCvE7MUT8-w7VhtuRD2MMVMUaqZo8nSxfOxj5mkbxh8xXlh9F0f1uQT3iZshvH5-ijXtGDEzA5GLeg3jWLMHBksi9uGzF4z1b-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C670&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQPPCoZyCzhCdvZt9TlAvvOYxQUV4lQSCvE7MUT8-w7VhtuRD2MMVMUaqZo8nSxfOxj5mkbxh8xXlh9F0f1uQT3iZshvH5-ijXtGDEzA5GLeg3jWLMHBksi9uGzF4z1b-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C670&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQPPCoZyCzhCdvZt9TlAvvOYxQUV4lQSCvE7MUT8-w7VhtuRD2MMVMUaqZo8nSxfOxj5mkbxh8xXlh9F0f1uQT3iZshvH5-ijXtGDEzA5GLeg3jWLMHBksi9uGzF4z1b-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C670&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQPPCoZyCzhCdvZt9TlAvvOYxQUV4lQSCvE7MUT8-w7VhtuRD2MMVMUaqZo8nSxfOxj5mkbxh8xXlh9F0f1uQT3iZshvH5-ijXtGDEzA5GLeg3jWLMHBksi9uGzF4z1b-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C670&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/0AQPPCoZyCzhCdvZt9TlAvvOYxQUV4lQSCvE7MUT8-w7VhtuRD2MMVMUaqZo8nSxfOxj5mkbxh8xXlh9F0f1uQT3iZshvH5-ijXtGDEzA5GLeg3jWLMHBksi9uGzF4z1b-1.jpeg?fit=1200%2C670&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":378317,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=378317","url_meta":{"origin":427039,"position":1},"title":"New Texas Law To Force Renewables To Be\u00a0Dispatchable","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/05\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Sounds like Texas is getting fed up with its electricity system being increasingly put at risk by wind and solar power.","rel":"","context":"In \"Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)\"","block_context":{"text":"Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=electric-reliability-council-of-texas-ercot"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0TxDOTAustin.webp?fit=1039%2C726&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0TxDOTAustin.webp?fit=1039%2C726&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0TxDOTAustin.webp?fit=1039%2C726&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/0TxDOTAustin.webp?fit=1039%2C726&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":301699,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301699","url_meta":{"origin":427039,"position":2},"title":"In January Cold, the Texas Electricity Grid Held \u2013 Barely","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"During the recent Winter Storm Heather (Jan. 13-16), the Texas grid was able to produce enough energy to meet the demand, but just barely.\u00a0Since Winter Storm Uri (February 2021), it appears that improvements have been made to the reliability of natural gas generation.","rel":"","context":"In \"catastrophic failure\"","block_context":{"text":"catastrophic failure","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=catastrophic-failure"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Texas-Electricity-Grid.jpeg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Texas-Electricity-Grid.jpeg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Texas-Electricity-Grid.jpeg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Texas-Electricity-Grid.jpeg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0-Texas-Electricity-Grid.jpeg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":426749,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426749","url_meta":{"origin":427039,"position":3},"title":"Can grid handle next Winter Storm Fern, solar flare, or enemy attack?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"17\/02\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"U.S. mostly dodged disaster this time. 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Until sufficient utility-scale battery storage is available, which is unlikely anytime soon due to the cost of current technologies, the ERCOT\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"ERCOT\"","block_context":{"text":"ERCOT","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ercot"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0rawImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C631&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0rawImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C631&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0rawImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C631&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0rawImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C631&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/08\/0rawImage.jpg?fit=1200%2C631&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":366230,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=366230","url_meta":{"origin":427039,"position":5},"title":"The Great Texas Blackout Revisited: Market Failure Not","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"15\/02\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"Four years ago, Storm Uri caused Texas\u2019s centrally planned wholesale electricity market (ERCOT) to buckle, vindicating\u00a0warnings\u00a0about the state\u2019s wind\/solar reliance. The mainstream media implicated natural gas instead, failing to explore\u00a0the why behind the why. Rather than deregulation, Texas has chosen to add wind, solar, and batteries, while subsidizing natural gas\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Blackout\"","block_context":{"text":"Blackout","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=blackout"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ac123c14-da9c-4e2e-8521-fc474aa5b8f3-texas_topper.webp?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ac123c14-da9c-4e2e-8521-fc474aa5b8f3-texas_topper.webp?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ac123c14-da9c-4e2e-8521-fc474aa5b8f3-texas_topper.webp?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ac123c14-da9c-4e2e-8521-fc474aa5b8f3-texas_topper.webp?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/0ac123c14-da9c-4e2e-8521-fc474aa5b8f3-texas_topper.webp?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427039","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=427039"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427039\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":427064,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/427039\/revisions\/427064"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/427062"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=427039"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=427039"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=427039"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}