{"id":426924,"date":"2026-02-18T21:20:45","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T20:20:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426924"},"modified":"2026-02-18T21:20:48","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T20:20:48","slug":"ceres-data-shocker-clouds-and-albedo-changes-account-for-all-modern-warming","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426924","title":{"rendered":"CERES Data Shocker: Clouds and Albedo Changes Account for All Modern Warming"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nikolov and Zeller use NASA CERES satellite data on planetary albedo (Earth’s reflectivity) and compare it to their semi-empirical model, which downplays or replaces the traditional greenhouse effect with a thermodynamic pressure-based explanation for atmospheric warming. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Nikolov and Karl F. Zeller note that prior studies (including CERES satellite observations) have documented a decreasing planetary albedo (Earth’s reflectivity) and corresponding increase in absorbed solar radiation since the early 1980s, accelerating after 2000. They argue this has contributed significantly to observed surface warming but has been inadequately addressed by the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Note that prior studies (including CERES satellite observations) have documented a decreasing planetary albedo (Earth’s reflectivity) and corresponding increase in absorbed solar radiation since the early 1980s, accelerating after 2000. They argue this has contributed significantly to observed surface warming but has been inadequately addressed by the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They used Dimensional Analysis (an objective mathematical technique to identify functional relationships from data) applied to vetted NASA observations from six Solar System bodies with rocky surfaces and atmospheres (or lack thereof): Venus, Earth, Moon, Mars, Titan (Saturn’s moon), and Triton (Neptune’s moon). These span wide ranges of solar irradiance, atmospheric pressure, composition, and temperature.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The authors conclude that recent warming is entirely explainable by observed solar forcing via albedo changes (mainly clouds), leaving “no room” for GHG radiative forcing or positive feedback in climate models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The standard greenhouse effect theory in mainstream climate science explains why Earth’s surface is about 33\u00b0C warmer than it would be without an atmosphere (average ~288 K or 15\u00b0C instead of ~255 K or -18\u00b0C for a bare “blackbody” planet at Earth’s distance from the Sun). This is a well-established process rooted in radiative physics, energy balance, and observations, dating back to foundational work by Joseph Fourier (1824), John Tyndall (1859\u20131860s experiments), Svante Arrhenius (1896 quantitative estimates), and modern radiative transfer models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Challenges to the CO2 Global Warming Hypothesis: (13) Global Warming Entirely from Declining Planetary Albedo<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From Clintel<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Ralph B. Alexander<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of my early posts<\/strong><\/a> in this series on challenges to the CO2<\/sub> global warming hypothesis featured a paper claiming that the greenhouse effect doesn\u2019t exist. Now the same authors appear to have sidestepped that claim in proposing instead that current global warming can be explained entirely by the observed decrease in planetary albedo over the last few decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a new paper<\/strong><\/a>, U.S. research scientists Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller compare empirical observations of albedo made by CERES (Earth\u2019s Radiant Energy System) satellites to the output of a semiempirical mathematical model used in their earlier work. In their model, the radiative effects integral to the greenhouse effect are replaced by a thermodynamic relationship between air temperature, solar heating and atmospheric pressure, analogous to compression heating of the atmosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nikolov and Zeller conclude that the observed decrease of planetary albedo, together with variations of solar output or TSI (total solar irradiance), account for 100% of the global warming trend as well as 83% of the interannual variability in global surface air temperature. They find that temperature changes are driven primarily by albedo changes, with only a marginal contribution from TSI.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Albedo is a measure of the earth\u2019s ability to reflect incoming solar radiation. Melting of light-colored snow and sea ice due to warming exposes darker surfaces such as soil, rock and seawater, which have lower albedo. The less reflective surfaces absorb more of the sun\u2019s radiation and thus push temperatures higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The same effect occurs with low-level clouds, which are the majority of the planet\u2019s cloud cover. Low-level clouds such as cumulus and stratus clouds are thick enough to reflect 30-60% of the sun\u2019s radiation that strikes them back into space, so they act like a parasol and normally cool the earth\u2019s surface. But less cloud cover lowers albedo and therefore results in warming.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The figure below shows CERES measurements of global albedo from 2000 to 2024, expressed as a percentage anomaly of the 2001 to 2022 mean. The albedo decrease since 2000 is approximately 0.79%, which implies an increase in absorbed shortwave solar radiation of 2.7 watts per square meter over that period. The two researchers point out that this absorption is very close to the total anthropogenic forcing of 2.72 watts per square meter from 1750 to 2019 estimated by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) in its AR6 (Sixth Assessment Report).<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
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Source of all images:\u00a0Scienceunderattack.com<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The decline in albedo corresponds to a similar reduction in low cloud cover studied by a trio of German environmental scientists, which I discussed in\u00a0a 2025 post<\/strong><\/a>. Their data for total (red curve) and low cloud (lower black) cover, calculated by the study authors from two separate sets of satellite data, is presented in the next figure. The lowered cloud cover is most prominent in northern mid-latitudes and the tropics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The next figure shows CERES measurements of absorbed shortwave radiation from 2000 to 2024 along with global surface air temperature, measured as the average of six temperature datasets (HadCRUT5, GISTEMP4, NOAA Global, BEST, RSS and NOAA STAR). The temperature anomaly tracks changes in the absorbed solar flux with an average lag of approximately 4 months. Nikolov and Zeller say this close empirical relationship suggests that temperature is directly controlled by the absorbed solar flux.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The researchers quantify the individual effects of albedo and TSI on surface temperatures by using their semiempirical mathematical model. The following figure compares modeled temperatures based on each of these two factors with observations. It\u2019s clear that variations in TSI play only a minimal role while variations in albedo dominate the temperature trend.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

This conclusion is also supported by the next figure, which depicts the modeled contribution to albedo and TSI separately going back to 1981. According to Nikolov and Zeller\u2019s model, the low contribution from TSI variation indicates that the earth\u2019s climate is 5.6 times more sensitive to changes in solar absorption than to TSI variations.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The estimate is in good agreement with a conclusion reached by Israeli physicist Nir Shaviv<\/strong><\/a>, who has investigated the effect of TSI cycles on several climatic variables. Shaviv found that total solar forcing of the earth\u2019s climate, which includes indirect effects, is 5 to 7 times larger than that associated with direct solar warming.  Such a large amplification factor would imply that the climate is much more sensitive to the sun than to CO2<\/sub>. Of the various possible indirect amplification mechanisms, Shaviv favors the influence of cosmic rays on low cloud cover.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nonetheless, the observation of declining albedo or low cloud cover begs the chicken-and-egg question: is decreased albedo the cause or effect of current warming? While Nikolov and Zeller argue for the former, they also call for large-scale interdisciplinary research into the physical mechanisms controlling the earth\u2019s albedo and cloud physics, in order to resolve the question.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This article by\u00a0Ralph B. Alexander<\/strong>\u00a0was published on February 16 at:\u00a0scienceunderattack.com<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nikolov and Zeller use NASA CERES satellite data on planetary albedo (Earth’s reflectivity) and compare it to their semi-empirical model, which downplays or replaces the traditional greenhouse effect with a thermodynamic pressure-based explanation for atmospheric warming. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":426947,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691841489,691821163,691821698,691818087,691841487,691841490,691826023,691841488],"class_list":{"0":"post-426924","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-albedo-changes","9":"tag-ceres","10":"tag-cloud-cover","11":"tag-global-warming","12":"tag-ned-nikolov-and-karl-f-zeller","13":"tag-nir-shaviv","14":"tag-temperature-changes","15":"tag-tsi-total-solar-irradiance","17":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMONR7W1WkelAFxbQi9d6Gzi-8zRmMnp2HM4reHPiL577qKJZLwz7XGiVCukBMSy3WS8GdaxT_O5lT9aicR80qDPRyke9m4jvhiilhH6UMudJ-OQkQWDESym3DfMlU548jP6hNBJFGHHSR7SHuCFRqBzw6YQA-1.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1N3S","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":340498,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=340498","url_meta":{"origin":426924,"position":0},"title":"\u00a0Scientists: 100% Of 2000-2023 Warming Explained By Solar Forcing\u2026Human Climate Forcing \u2018Does Not Exist In Reality\u2019","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"A new, observation-based study makes extensive use of satellite data (CERES) to quantify the driving mechanism behind the global surface air temperature (GSAT) warming throughout the first 24 years of the 21st century.","rel":"","context":"In \"EEI [Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance]\"","block_context":{"text":"EEI [Earth\u2019s Energy Imbalance]","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=eei-earths-energy-imbalance"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/01868412.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":198525,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=198525","url_meta":{"origin":426924,"position":1},"title":"Ned Nikolov & Karl Zeller: Exact Calculations of Climate Sensitivities Reveal the True Cause of Recent Warming","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/05\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"I\u2019m delighted Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller have chosen the Talkshop as the venue for the publication of this new open peer review paper on climate sensitivity. Scientific advance at the cutting edge has always been the most important aim of this blog, and I think this paper truly is\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/00studied_planetary_bodies.png?fit=1200%2C742&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":371882,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371882","url_meta":{"origin":426924,"position":2},"title":"New Study: Recent \u2018Unprecedented\u2019 Cloud Cover Decline Driving Modern (And Past) Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"25\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"\u201c[T]he increase in absorbed solar radiation is primarily due to natural variations in cloudiness and surface albedo, which have served as the main forcing factors of the flux above the atmosphere over the last 2 decades.\u201d\u00a0\u2013 Diodato et al., 2025","rel":"","context":"In \"absorbed solar radiation (ASR)\"","block_context":{"text":"absorbed solar radiation (ASR)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=absorbed-solar-radiation-asr"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0701622.webp?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0701622.webp?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0701622.webp?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0701622.webp?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0701622.webp?fit=1200%2C720&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":338319,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=338319","url_meta":{"origin":426924,"position":3},"title":"Unconventional Sign Conventions","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/08\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The CERES project has advanced the state-of-the-art in Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) observations through improved accuracy of the CERES instruments and extensive use of coincident higher spatial resolution spectral imager measurements on both low-Earth orbit and geostationary platforms. CERES involves a high level of data fusion. During the CERES period,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Ceres\"","block_context":{"text":"Ceres","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ceres"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C444&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C444&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C444&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C444&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/0clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C444&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":337742,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=337742","url_meta":{"origin":426924,"position":4},"title":"Nikolov & Zeller: Misrepresentation of Critical Satellite Data by\u00a0IPCC","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"27\/07\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR6) concluded \u201cIt is very likely that well-mixed GHGs [greenhouse gases] were the main driver of tropospheric warming since 1979\u201d (IPCC, 2021; p.5).","rel":"","context":"In \"CERES data\"","block_context":{"text":"CERES data","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=ceres-data"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0jpss_satellite-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0jpss_satellite-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0jpss_satellite-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0jpss_satellite-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/0jpss_satellite-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C776&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":344793,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=344793","url_meta":{"origin":426924,"position":5},"title":"The Recent Decades Of Cloud Cover Decline May Be A Continuation Of A Trend That Began In 1818","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"01\/10\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Scientists have repeatedly reported a satellite-observed (CERES) cloud cover albedo decline that has led to an increase in solar radiation absorbed by the Earth\u2019s oceans \u2013 a trend that explains the post-2000 temperature increase","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-multi-decadal-oscillation-amo"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/0Clouds.jpg?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426924","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=426924"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426924\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":426949,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426924\/revisions\/426949"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/426947"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=426924"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=426924"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=426924"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}