{"id":426527,"date":"2026-02-16T07:38:55","date_gmt":"2026-02-16T06:38:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426527"},"modified":"2026-02-16T07:38:57","modified_gmt":"2026-02-16T06:38:57","slug":"when-climate-data-dont-match-the-climate-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426527","title":{"rendered":"When Climate Data Don\u2019t Match the Climate Story"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Daily Sceptic<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By\u00a0Dr Les Coleman<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For decades we\u2019ve been told a simple story: more carbon dioxide means higher global temperatures. That simplicity proved politically convincing and underpins the most expensive set of policies in modern history, covering Net Zero targets, taxes and vast subsidies to decarbonise industry, energy and transport within a generation. The world is effectively betting trillions that the temperature dial can be turned down by squeezing CO2<\/sub> emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what if that core assumption is far less robust than advertised?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

My answer came in an analysis published last month in\u00a0Science of Climate Change<\/a><\/em>\u00a0that used my background as a finance academic the way a financial analyst would interrogate a market hypothesis. In finance, no matter how elegant a theory looks, you still test it against hard data. If the numbers don\u2019t confirm the model, the model gives way, not the other way around…<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The starting point is uncontroversial: since the 19th Century both CO2<\/sub> and global temperatures have risen. The correlation is visually potent. But anyone who has worked with time series knows how deceptive such correlations can be. Ice-cream sales and shark attacks rise together in summer; that doesn\u2019t make one the cause of the other. Two trending variables will often appear tightly linked even when the relationship is entirely coincidental.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Econometricians therefore strip out time trends and examine how annual changes relate to each other. Does each year\u2019s increase in CO2<\/sub> reliably produce a corresponding nudge in temperature? When we look at the data since reliable measurements began around 1960, the answer is awkward. CO2<\/sub> has risen sharply, yet the rate of temperature change has not moved in lockstep. In fact, the annual changes diverge. If CO2<\/sub> were the master control knob, you would expect accelerations in CO2<\/sub> to march closely with accelerations in temperature. They don\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I stress-tested this across multiple temperature and CO2<\/sub> datasets. The result was the same: the neat, linear linkage between CO2<\/sub> levels and temperature weakens once you look beneath the headline trend. The famous correlation appears, at least in part, to be a statistical mirage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Then comes causality. For CO2<\/sub> to be the principal driver of warming, changes in CO2<\/sub> must consistently lead changes in temperature. You can\u2019t have the thermometer moving first. Yet simple regressions show no clear lead-lag pattern in the levels. And when we switch to annual changes, temperature movements often lead those in CO2<\/sub>, not the other way round. That should raise eyebrows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In finance we talk about the \u201cjoint test problem\u201d: you often can\u2019t measure a key variable directly and end up assuming the very thing you are testing. Climate science runs straight into this. The quantity \u2018anthropogenic warming\u2019 cannot be observed; models infer it. But because those same models assume that solar and volcanic effects explain everything that isn\u2019t CO2<\/sub> and are tuned to match past temperatures, any conclusions risk circularity. The theory looks right because it was effectively built into the machinery from the beginning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what does explain temperature movements in the data? My paper doesn\u2019t claim a full alternative climate model, but it does identify three variables with strong and persistent statistical links to temperature: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (a long-lasting pattern in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures), atmospheric humidity and, interestingly, global cereal production. Regressions using both levels and annual changes show these variables have clearer, more stable relationships with temperature than CO2<\/sub>\u00a0does. This doesn\u2019t \u2018disprove\u2019 CO2<\/sub>\u2019s role; it simply shows that the empirical picture is far more complex than the official narrative suggests.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Concerns about spurious correlations and causal ambiguity have been raised before, but they receive little attention because the climate debate has become dominated by model-driven certainty. In most fields, relying almost entirely on internally calibrated models with limited independent empirical challenge would be treated as a recipe for groupthink. In climate policy it has become normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The practical implications are huge. Global policy is premised on a near-linear relationship between cumulative CO2<\/sub> and temperature. But when the relationship is confronted with historical data it looks surprisingly fragile. Yet governments are pursuing decarbonisation on the assumption that this linearity is scientifically settled and operationally dependable. If it isn\u2019t, then the promised temperature returns on emissions cuts may be much smaller than advertised, despite the economic and social costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finance has a name for this: model risk. When a model drives trillion-dollar exposures, prudent institutions demand independent validation, stress-testing and transparency about uncertainty. Climate policy deserves at least the level of scrutiny applied on Wall Street.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A prudent approach would treat the dominant CO2<\/sub> narrative as a leading hypothesis rather than revealed truth. That means diversifying policy: more emphasis on adaptation; more focus on resilient infrastructure; and greater use of \u2018no-regrets\u2019 measures that pass cost-benefit tests even if climate sensitivity to CO2<\/sub> turns out to be lower or more complicated than today\u2019s models suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is always tempting for policymakers to dismiss uncomfortable analysis, especially when so much political capital rests on a single storyline. But genuine risk management welcomes challenge. When a finance researcher can take publicly available climate data, apply standard analytical methods and find that the central claim of global policy doesn\u2019t survive basic statistical scrutiny, it is not a sign of scientific heresy. It is a sign that we need more open debate, not less.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data are stubborn things. They don\u2019t bend to political necessity. And when real-world numbers begin to contradict the narrative, serious people \u2013 especially those spending other people\u2019s money \u2013 ought to pay attention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr Les Coleman is a research fellow at the University of Melbourne and author of eight books on investment, research, risk management and biography.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

For decades we\u2019ve been told a simple story: more carbon dioxide means higher global temperatures. That simplicity proved politically convincing and underpins the most expensive set of policies in modern history, covering Net Zero targets, taxes and vast subsidies to decarbonise industry, energy and transport within a generation. The world is effectively betting trillions that the temperature dial can be turned down by squeezing CO2\u00a0emissions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":426531,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691828920,691829997,691818056,691818153,691819716,691819268,691818154],"class_list":{"0":"post-426527","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-atlantic-multidecadal-oscillation-amo","9":"tag-carbon-dioxide-co","10":"tag-climate-change","11":"tag-climate-models","12":"tag-climate-policy","13":"tag-global-temperatures","14":"tag-net-zero","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0NASA-CO2-hero.jpg?fit=1550%2C1033&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1MXt","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":218333,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=218333","url_meta":{"origin":426527,"position":0},"title":"Second Place Winner WUWT Student Essay Contest","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/09\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"The second-place winner is a young student in Tennessee.","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-553.png?fit=1024%2C500&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-553.png?fit=1024%2C500&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-553.png?fit=1024%2C500&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/09\/image-553.png?fit=1024%2C500&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":426117,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426117","url_meta":{"origin":426527,"position":1},"title":"The Last Fool\u00a0Standing","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/02\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"So, Donald Trump\u00a0plans to reverse the \u201cendangerment finding\u201d\u00a0that underpins most climate-related regulation in America. This is further proof that Britain is being increasingly left behind by a global rush to dismantle the climate scare. Ed Miliband is now almost alone in accelerating towards decarbonisation. Even if you think he is\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-The-Last-Fool-Standing1.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-The-Last-Fool-Standing1.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-The-Last-Fool-Standing1.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-The-Last-Fool-Standing1.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0-The-Last-Fool-Standing1.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":369007,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=369007","url_meta":{"origin":426527,"position":2},"title":"SEC\u2019s Climate Risk Disclosure Rule Would Compel Companies to Make Scientifically False and Misleading Disclosures","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"07\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"In March last year, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued its climate risk disclosure rule, called \u201cThe Enhancement and Standardization of Climate-Related Disclosures for Investors.\u201d\u00a0","rel":"","context":"In \"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)\"","block_context":{"text":"carbon dioxide (CO\u2082)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=carbon-dioxide-co%e2%82%82"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Securities-and-Exchange-Commission-SEC.webp?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Securities-and-Exchange-Commission-SEC.webp?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Securities-and-Exchange-Commission-SEC.webp?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Securities-and-Exchange-Commission-SEC.webp?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Securities-and-Exchange-Commission-SEC.webp?fit=1200%2C719&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":186166,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=186166","url_meta":{"origin":426527,"position":3},"title":"Climate Change Weekly #424: Biden Climate, Energy Policies\u2019 Costs: High and Rising","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/02\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"From Heartland Daily News H. Sterling Burnett\u00a0February 3, 2022 YOU SHOULD\u00a0SUBSCRIBE TO CLIMATE CHANGE WEEKLY. IN THIS ISSUE: Biden Climate, Energy Policies\u2019 Costs: High and RisingPodcast of the Week: No, Virginia, a Climate Catastrophe Is Not Really 10 Years Away! (Guest: Kenneth Green)China\u2019s Great Leap Forward With NuclearMedia Ignores Declining\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0133653979_twitter-post.jpg?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0133653979_twitter-post.jpg?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0133653979_twitter-post.jpg?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/02\/0133653979_twitter-post.jpg?fit=1024%2C512&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":197679,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=197679","url_meta":{"origin":426527,"position":4},"title":"A \u2018Carbon Fee\u2019 Will Not Save Hawaii from Climate Change","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"28\/04\/2022","format":false,"excerpt":"A recent story in the\u00a0Honolulu Civil Beat\u00a0claims that climate change in Hawaii, driven by fossil-fuel use, is damaging the islands, a problem that can be solved by imposing a tax on carbon dioxide emissions. These claims are demonstrably false. Climate change is not causing unusual damage to Hawaii, and carbon\u2026","rel":"","context":"Similar post","block_context":{"text":"Similar post","link":""},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0beach-g5899b3f61_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0beach-g5899b3f61_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0beach-g5899b3f61_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0beach-g5899b3f61_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/04\/0beach-g5899b3f61_1920.jpg?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":286339,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=286339","url_meta":{"origin":426527,"position":5},"title":"Oh Noes! Window to avoid 1.5\u00b0C of warming will close before 2030 if emissions are not reduced","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"03\/11\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"Climate doomers are calling for the climate boogey man. They are waiting for the doomsday. Welcome to a new story of climate warning propaganda. From Watts Up With That? From the Imperial College of London and the \u201cdoom is always just a few years away\u201d department comes this snoozer. \u2013\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"1.5\u00b0C warming\"","block_context":{"text":"1.5\u00b0C warming","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=1-5c-warming"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OIG-2023-08-15T141942.710.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OIG-2023-08-15T141942.710.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OIG-2023-08-15T141942.710.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/OIG-2023-08-15T141942.710.jpeg?fit=1024%2C1024&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426527","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=426527"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426527\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":426533,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426527\/revisions\/426533"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/426531"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=426527"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=426527"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=426527"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}