{"id":426165,"date":"2026-02-14T19:16:56","date_gmt":"2026-02-14T18:16:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426165"},"modified":"2026-02-14T19:16:58","modified_gmt":"2026-02-14T18:16:58","slug":"el-nino-weather-aspects-summer-the-hurricane-season-and-next-winter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=426165","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o weather aspects: Summer, the hurricane season, and next winter"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
Palm tree on windy weather. Hurricane in Miami south beach, Florida. Palm tree in hurricane weather. Tropical beach in Miami. Tropical windy weather with palm tree. Strong wind. Exotic nature.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The forecast calling for an El Ni\u00f1o makes sense in the context of the natural cycle of these events. But we\u2019re in a different world now, with oceans unusually warm nearly everywhere. The previous El Ni\u00f1o should be a wake-up call that the atmosphere\u2019s response is no longer behaving the same way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How is it that the El Ni\u00f1o never fully showed up in the longest-running measure of these events\u2014the SOI\u2014where winter values were below the threshold? Even in the gold standard for coupled ENSO events, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), it registered only as weak to moderate, yet it was classified as a strong El Ni\u00f1o based on the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region (or ONI). We should examine that closely to set the stage for the current developing El Ni\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fact that the SOI did not record a 3-month running average below -8 during the winter\u2014despite the event\u2019s overall intensity\u2014was remarkable. This occurred because of a sudden warming of the waters by nearly 5\u00b0C in just two months to the east of Australia, an unprecedented development. This warming was later attributed to increased underwater volcanic activity in the South Pacific, with our old friend Hunga Tonga\u2013Hunga Hualapai likely releasing tremendous amounts of heat into the ocean\u2014though without a major subaerial explosion like its initial eruption. This has been a significant factor in global climate and weather patterns overall and may still be exerting an influence today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In November of 2023, with the SOI actually in El Ni\u00f1o territory, SST looks like this<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The configuration in the tropical Pacific of a warm tongue with cold water around Australia was not unlike the normal, though even here the rest of the oceans had warmed dramatically over the past 35 years from the means<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

But that configuration is crucial to the MJO. Cold water around Australia blunts the advance of the MJO into the phases that lead to a warm winter, 4,5,6,7<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

It supports higher pressure around Australia, which leads to a lowering of the SOI ( a measure of the standard deviation of Sea level pressure between Darwin and Tahiti). When pressures are higher to the west, the easterlies are forced to slow, and so there is more convergence in the phase 8\/1 areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what occurred was shocking. The water warmed close to 5 \u00b0C. This cannot be solar. It cannot be CO2. It had to be a cumulative build of heat due to the ring of fire underwater volcanoes. with a sudden increase in input. And if you do not know it occurring you are helpless to react as a forecaster till too late<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Here is the anomaly change in temperature from November to January<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

notice little change in the El Ni\u00f1o area, but all around Australia<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So instead of what looked like a setup for a cold, stormy winter, perhaps like 09-10 with a western NAMER ridge, positives over the pole, and a wonderful negative Western Pacific Oscillation<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

We get this<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The positive further south, a HORRIBLE western Pacific oscillation, and a forecast that is blown out of the water<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The reason. Unprecedented warming most likely from Geothermal input.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How important are those factors, by the way?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Look at the last 20 days<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Basically, it looked like the model for that winter that got blown out of the water<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s look at forecast aspects this year. The hurricane season, the summer, and next winter<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricane season:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only model all the way out to hurricane season with the El Ni\u00f1o is the Canadian<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

It has a moderate event, as do the other models, and the extreme warmth of water in the Atlantic subtropics. This highly favors what storms there are, to stay out at sea, but even with that, some can get back to land, as in the analog season I have defined below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2023 hurricane season<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

This is different from 2023. It\u2019s a Modoki El Ni\u00f1o. It\u2019s similar in nature to the more active seasons of 2004,1969.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If we adjust the SST to today\u2019s values, we can see that<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Atlantic configuration, though, is more like 2023, so a blend of the 3 years, 2023,2004,1969  is what I am currently thinking<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So the number is 17-21 total storms<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8-10 hurricanes<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3-5 majors<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Landfalling hurricanes 1-3<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major landfalls 1 or 2<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ACE Index 140-180<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summer Speculation<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The modeling is not liking a hot summer for the US. The warmest of the modeling is the European, which is based on 1993-2016 climo data, but it certainly hints of less than a torrid summer<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The Canadian is cooler<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Last 10 days of runs of CFSV2 are cool<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The 10-year means have looked like this<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

and wet in the south and east<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The Euro for the summer in precipitation is between the US CFSV2, which looks way too wet in the north<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

and the Canadian which looks way too wet in the gulf.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

So the Euro makes most sense to me in the Gulf and Caribbean, especially with an El Ni\u00f1o<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

But it would be a great summer for agriculture and a reversal of the very dry conditions we have had this winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So out of the past 10 years looks 2nd to fourth coolest, with another great growing season rain-wise. Deep South Texas may still be a problem, though.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nex Winter:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"image.gif\"\/<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

There was a day when weak to moderate El Ni\u00f1os after a La Ni\u00f1a were loved by winter weather lovers. But the last 3 have not panned out, though we did get a great winter month in Jan 2016, and the last time it hit 0 in NYC was in the El Ni\u00f1o of 2016.. But even that winter was warm overall, 23-24 only had January with some cold, and 18-19 was the\u201d La Nina\u201d El Ni\u00f1o winter, similar to 51-52, where it was cold where it was supposed to be warm and warm where it was supposed to be cold.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

But there have been some great bounce-back winters also<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2002-2003,2009-2010,2014-2015<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The only model out that far is the Canadian<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

with a modokie look. While the water is warm around Australia, it is cooler than the center of the El Ni\u00f1o.  So we may have a better Madden Julian Oscillation signal.   We have a lot of warm water in the NE Pacific, which is a cold signal. It has some cold water off New England, though not as cold as this year was<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, for now, the outlook for a threat of a cold winter is acceptable for much of the northern US. I would suspect more cold into the Southeast though<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

It shows the threat of blocking over the top and the Alaska ridge, so the gut call is for a colder than normal winter next year<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And with it, fun, fun, fun with winter storms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The forecast calling for an El Ni\u00f1o makes sense in the context of the natural cycle of these events. But we\u2019re in a different world now, with oceans unusually warm nearly everywhere. The previous El Ni\u00f1o should be a wake-up call that the atmosphere\u2019s response is no longer behaving the same way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":426167,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819287,691834384,691841385,691821580,691834391,691841384,691841386],"class_list":{"0":"post-426165","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-el-nino-2","9":"tag-enso-el-nino-southern-oscillation-2","10":"tag-hunga-tonga-hunga-hualapai","11":"tag-south-pacific-ocean","12":"tag-sst-sea-surface-temperature-2","13":"tag-underwater-volcanic-activity","14":"tag-western-pacific-oscillation","16":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0palm-trees-wind-scaled-1.jpg?fit=2560%2C1598&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1MRD","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":440227,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=440227","url_meta":{"origin":426165,"position":0},"title":"The Washington Post Gets It Right on Typhoon Sinlaku","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"18\/04\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The Post avoided the reflexive \u201cclimate change made it worse\u201d narrative that often dominates storm coverage. Instead, it stuck to the physics and natural variability.","rel":"","context":"In \"Category 5-equivalent storms\"","block_context":{"text":"Category 5-equivalent storms","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=category-5-equivalent-storms"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-The-Washington-Post-Gets-It-Right-on-Typhoon-Sinlaku.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-The-Washington-Post-Gets-It-Right-on-Typhoon-Sinlaku.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-The-Washington-Post-Gets-It-Right-on-Typhoon-Sinlaku.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-The-Washington-Post-Gets-It-Right-on-Typhoon-Sinlaku.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":439097,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=439097","url_meta":{"origin":426165,"position":1},"title":"Is a Super El Nino Coming?","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/04\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Forecasts are probabilistic, so plan for a range of outcomes rather than betting on the most dramatic scenario.","rel":"","context":"In \"dynamical models\"","block_context":{"text":"dynamical models","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=dynamical-models"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/0-Is-a-Super-El-Nino-Coming.jpg?fit=784%2C1168&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":425927,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425927","url_meta":{"origin":426165,"position":2},"title":"The coming El Ni\u00f1o","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/02\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"We are hearing about the coming El Ni\u00f1o. I will deal with the weather aspects in a post later in the week. But look at this quote, I pulled in the Washington Post. Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb described this change in global temperatures during major El Ni\u00f1o events as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"el Ni\u00f1o\"","block_context":{"text":"el Ni\u00f1o","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino-2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0Seychelles-beautiful-beach-and-palms.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0Seychelles-beautiful-beach-and-palms.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0Seychelles-beautiful-beach-and-palms.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0Seychelles-beautiful-beach-and-palms.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0Seychelles-beautiful-beach-and-palms.jpg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":292226,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=292226","url_meta":{"origin":426165,"position":3},"title":"El Ni\u00f1o Behind High Temperatures in 2023 \u2013 Similar to 2016","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/12\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"It\u2019s been a vintage year for politicised climate fanatics playing their new pseudoscientific game of joining up the jots of individual weather anomalies and claiming we are all going to die unless we submit to a collectivist Net Zero Great Reset. \u201cWe are living through climate collapse in real time,\u201d\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-2016-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-2016-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-2016-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-2016-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/0-2016-El-Nino.png?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":252109,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=252109","url_meta":{"origin":426165,"position":4},"title":"Hurricane impact forecast 2023","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/04\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"WeatherBell has been the pioneer in trying to alert the public as to\u00a0where\u00a0these storms are going to go.","rel":"","context":"In \"2023\"","block_context":{"text":"2023","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2023"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/0-2023-atlantic-hurrican.jpg?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":308233,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=308233","url_meta":{"origin":426165,"position":5},"title":"Collapsing El Ni\u00f1o Spells End to Year-Long Bout of Climate Hysteria","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"To be serious, the current strong and natural\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0event is starting to dramatically collapse with critical ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific ocean falling from 2.1\u00b0C above normal in late November to 1.3\u00b0C. The collapse in temperatures is even more dramatic at the sub-surface 300 metre level. In the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426165","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=426165"}],"version-history":[{"count":17,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426165\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":426208,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/426165\/revisions\/426208"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/426167"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=426165"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=426165"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=426165"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}