{"id":425927,"date":"2026-02-13T08:59:56","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T07:59:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425927"},"modified":"2026-02-13T08:59:59","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T07:59:59","slug":"the-coming-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425927","title":{"rendered":"The coming El Ni\u00f1o"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A
Beautiful tropical beach with coconut palm trees at Seychelles<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From CFACT<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Joe Bastardi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are hearing about the coming El Ni\u00f1o. I will deal with the weather aspects in a post later in the week. But look at this quote, I pulled in the Washington Post.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb described this change in global temperatures during major El Ni\u00f1o events as an upward \u201cstairstep.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDue to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases, the climate system cannot effectively exhaust the heat released in a major El Ni\u00f1o event before the next El Ni\u00f1o comes along and pushes the baseline upward again,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1) How long have I been showing this is a step-up function? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Decades now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Line<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

And it\u2019s the excess WV that we cannot get rid of, not the trace GHGs that man is putting into the atmosphere. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

BUT YOU WILL NEVER GET THAT ADMISSION OUT OF PEOPLE PUSHING THIS.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So now they acknowledge that the source region is the oceanic El Ni\u00f1o Step ups.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, what is causing the step up?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s get to the source. So, without El Ni\u00f1os, there is no extra WV and now warming right. Again, as I have pointed out thousands of times there would have been little if any warming if the oceans were the same way 40 years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"World<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

now<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Global<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

I have gone through this in previous blogs. Notice another hot spot developing right over where the Hunga source region for underwater volcanic activity is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, the steady state increase of CO2 is clearly seen since the 1950s.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"Line<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

There was little change in SST from the 50s through the 80s (I have gone over this a thousand times, but since they are at least admitting the step-up function lets counter the idea that its man-made GHG that is causing all this.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is what changed.\u00a0 The increase in geothermal input, which PRECEDED THE RISE, indicates likely causation.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

The hypothesis is simple.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a different aspect of the forcing that was not there 40 years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its input, which the scientific community refuses to acknowledge or take the steps to test (Saturate the ocean floor with sensors, so they have plausible deniability if they never measure it) causes\u00a0a cumulative build-up of heat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This distorts the global wind pattern, so we are in a La Ni\u00f1a base State to counter it. Plainly seen in the Multivariate Enso Index data since the super El Ni\u00f1o of 97-98.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"A<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Notice how the last El Ni\u00f1o was not as strong as the other big ones in the data. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This suggests that the spike in global temperatures was driven in part, and perhaps a major part, by Hunga. So, the 2 coincided, and as far as the Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index, 23-24 was strong, but the impact on the atmosphere was blunted (that is why this is a multivariate index), likely because the difference in SST between the ENSO areas and the non-ENSO areas is not as great anymore.\u00a0 It\u2019s the difference that drives the weather, and if the ocean is simply warm all over, the impact would not be as great. This is part of the distortion I speak about.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That distortion is also leading to distorted cloud patterns as vertical velocities over the tropics have decreased with a weakened Hadley cell. The result is less clouds, so more incoming radiation to the tropics, and more heating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now here is the kill shot. If there is continuous high input of geothermal, then there is a cumulative buildup of heat in the oceans, so when the La Ni\u00f1a base state is disturbed, the El Ni\u00f1o comes back.\u00a0 The La Ni\u00f1a base state is to counter the warming and is only because of the warming.\u00a0 But the heat as to eventually\u00a0overwhelm it until it can recalibrate.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But how strong the El Ni\u00f1o is and how much input it has needs to be questioned. The more WV already in the air, the less the input, unless it\u2019s very great, will impact the system.\u00a0\u00a0It\u2019s already warm, and it\u2019s cooling back now.\u00a0 \u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while climate activists can jump up and down screaming another spike is coming, 1) that admits the ocean is in control, and not man-made gasses, which is why they run to the argument that man-made gases won’t let it cool down, when in reality it\u2019s the WATER VAPOR FROM NATURAL INPUT THAT IS DOING IT.\u00a0 2) This may just be a bounce up and down in the new plateau from the last event, which ignores Hunga\u2019s input, which IMO is an absurd avoidance of the issue.\u00a0 Again, that would point to nature, not man, as the cause, and we can\u2019t have that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I suspect over the years (it\u2019s taken 2 decades to get that admission) much of what I have been showing will be shown to have merit.\u00a0 But in the meantime, remember the bottom line in this is that man is still the cause. They are not going to stop and any novel ideas, even if they are based on simple natural ideas, will be shot down. In fact, that’s the biggest danger. What if the simple answer is the correct answer? Down goes the whole cottage industry.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its political and the current administration is not going to be there forever. Remember, this is the ultimate weapon (climate) to take down the foundation system of this country.\u00a0 So, anything countering that will be hidden.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Again, anyone who has followed me has seen me opine on this for close to 2 decades. So, if what I am saying has merit, it won\u2019t be acknowledged till such a time when the political agenda at work here has made it so it\u2019s too late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We are hearing about the coming El Ni\u00f1o. I will deal with the weather aspects in a post later in the week. But look at this quote, I pulled in the Washington Post.<\/p>\n

Defense Department meteorologist Eric Webb described this change in global temperatures during major El Ni\u00f1o events as an upward \u201cstairstep.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":425929,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wMlwvMFNleWNoZWxsZXMtYmVhdXRpZnVsLWJlYWNoLWFuZC1wYWxtcy0xMDI0eDEwMjQuanBnIiwidHh0IjoiVGhlIGNvbWluZyBFbCBOaVx1MDBmMW8iLCJ0ZW1wbGF0ZSI6ImhpZ2h3YXkiLCJmb250IjoiIiwiYmxvZ19pZCI6MTU1ODEyNDQ5fQ.j9px5H4UWiQqQR7uye_FPLB3QmUjnpxtUH9HM-dCKpoMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819287,691837801,691818825,691834391,691822277],"class_list":{"0":"post-425927","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-el-nino-2","9":"tag-greenhouse-gas-emissions-ghgs","10":"tag-la-nina-2","11":"tag-sst-sea-surface-temperature-2","12":"tag-water-vapor-wv","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0Seychelles-beautiful-beach-and-palms.jpg?fit=2048%2C2048&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1MNN","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":307284,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=307284","url_meta":{"origin":425927,"position":0},"title":"El Nino’s Collapse Has Begun","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"11\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The entire character of this winter has been characterized by a strong El Nino.\u00a0 However, El Nino's days are numbered and its decline is proceeding rapidly right now.\u00a0","rel":"","context":"In \"El Nino\"","block_context":{"text":"El Nino","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=el-nino"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0wp6696151.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0wp6696151.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0wp6696151.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0wp6696151.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0wp6696151.webp?fit=1200%2C675&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":301633,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=301633","url_meta":{"origin":425927,"position":1},"title":"Strong El Nino Conditions Prevails at The End of January 2024","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"13\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The classification of El Ni\u00f1o events, including the strength labels, is somewhat subjective and can vary among meteorological and climate agencies. There isn\u2019t a strict rule defining the specific number of consecutive Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI) values that must be 2.0\u00b0C or above to categorize an El Ni\u00f1o event as\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate model\"","block_context":{"text":"climate model","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-model"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/00el_nino_globe.v2.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":308233,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=308233","url_meta":{"origin":425927,"position":2},"title":"Collapsing El Ni\u00f1o Spells End to Year-Long Bout of Climate Hysteria","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"14\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"To be serious, the current strong and natural\u00a0El Ni\u00f1o\u00a0event is starting to dramatically collapse with critical ocean temperatures in the central tropical Pacific ocean falling from 2.1\u00b0C above normal in late November to 1.3\u00b0C. The collapse in temperatures is even more dramatic at the sub-surface 300 metre level. In the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate alarmism\"","block_context":{"text":"climate alarmism","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-alarmism"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0E5uRkR1Z2mfwMxIA6dRF.jpg?fit=1200%2C600&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":303496,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=303496","url_meta":{"origin":425927,"position":3},"title":"The Coming Collapse Of El Nino and The Ramifications on The Atlantic Basin Tropical Season","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"20\/02\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Above-normal sea surface temperatures continue this month across most of the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, but there are signs that this El Nino episode which began about a year ago will flip to La Nina conditions (colder-than-normal) by the early part of the 2024 summer season.","rel":"","context":"In \"2024 Atlantic Basin\"","block_context":{"text":"2024 Atlantic Basin","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=2024-atlantic-basin"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/0el-nino-la-nina.webp?fit=1200%2C800&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":312201,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=312201","url_meta":{"origin":425927,"position":4},"title":"The AP\u2019s Coverage of UN\u2019s \u2018Climate Red Alert\u2019 Is Nothing More Than a Red Herring","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"23\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"The Associated Press (AP) ran a story claiming that a \u201cred alert\u201d was issued by The United Nations (UN) weather agency, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which claimed that global temperature in 2023 set new records due to human caused climate change, and expectations that new record high temperatures would\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"climate propaganda\"","block_context":{"text":"climate propaganda","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-propaganda"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0climatecahnge-TA.webp?fit=1200%2C900&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":392991,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=392991","url_meta":{"origin":425927,"position":5},"title":"Climate Oscillations 11: Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index (ONI)","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"05\/08\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Oceanic Ni\u00f1o Index or\u00a0ONI\u00a0is NOAA\u2019s primarily indicator for monitoring the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the critical Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region. It is a 3-month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, defined as 5\u00b0N-5\u00b0S and 120\u00b0W-170\u00b0W. 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