{"id":425775,"date":"2026-02-12T15:10:34","date_gmt":"2026-02-12T14:10:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425775"},"modified":"2026-02-12T17:31:23","modified_gmt":"2026-02-12T16:31:23","slug":"climate-doomism-under-predicted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425775","title":{"rendered":"Climate Doomism Under Predicted?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"A<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The Master Resource<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Robert Bradley Jr.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201cMy way of dealing with doom-mongers is to let the person talk for a while and then I ask, gently: \u201cDoes feeling this way make you more effective?\u201d \u2013 Amory Lovins<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Mark Trexle<\/a>r, \u201cPushing Climate Boulders Uphill Since the 1980s,\u201d\u00a0posted<\/a>\u00a0on social media:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Our biggest climate risk failure hasn\u2019t been inadequate technology or funding. It\u2019s been our reliance for 40 years on predictable models in a chaotic climate system!<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Welcome to\u00a0Deep Ecology<\/a>, the belief that Nature is optimal and fragile and any human perturbation is bad, even catastrophic. Trexler then lists his examples:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Back in 1987, Wallace Broecker warned in <\/em>Nature<\/em> about \u201cunpleasant surprises in the greenhouse\u201d \u2013 arguing that Earth\u2019s climate wasn\u2019t a gentle dial, but a roulette wheel capable of sudden, dramatic shifts.<\/em>
That was almost 40 years ago. He hasn\u2019t been alone in raising this concern, as this curated list of 18 reports from 1987 to 2024 makes clear:<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013 1987 Broecker_Unpleasant surprises in the greenhouse?<\/em>
\u2013 2007 Campbell_The Age of Consequences \u2013 The Foreign Policy Implications<\/em>
\u2013 2008 PIRC Climate Safety Report \u2013 In case of emergency<\/em>
\u2013 2008 Spratt_Climate Code Red The Case for a Sustainability Emergency<\/em>
\u2013 2011 Mabey_Degrees of Risk \u2014 Defining a Risk Management Framework for Climate Security<\/em>
\u2013 2017 Dunlop_Disaster Alley Climate Change Conflict and Risk<\/em>
\u2013 2018 Spratt_What Lies Beneath \u2013 The Understatement of Existential Climate Risk<\/em>
\u2013 2020 Spratt_Fatal Calculations \u2013 How Economics Has Underestimated Climate Damage<\/em>
\u2013 2021 Backus_Climate Risk and Response Too much and too little<\/em>
\u2013 2021 CCAG_Extreme Events in the Arctic and Beyond A Global State of Emergency<\/em>
\u2013 2021 CCAG_The Final Warning Bell<\/em>
\u2013 2021 Spratt_Degrees of Risk: Can the banking system survive climate change<\/em>
\u2013 2023 Trust_The Emperor\u2019s New Climate Scenarios<\/em>
\u2013 2023 University of Exeter_No Time to Lose New Scenario Narratives for Action on Climate Change<\/em>
\u2013 2024 Spratt_Collision Course_3-Degrees of Warming and Humanity\u2019s Future<\/em>
\u2013 2024 Stainforth_Predicting Our Climate Future: What We Know, What We Don\u2019t Know, and What We Can\u2019t Know<\/em>
\u2013 2024 Trust_Climate Scorpion \u2013 The sting is in the tail<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s an impressive and alarming list,\u201d\u00a0Trexle<\/a>r continues,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\ud835\uddef\ud835\ude02\ud835\ude01 \ud835\ude04\ud835\uddf5\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01 \ud835\uddf0\ud835\uddee\ud835\uddfb \ud835\ude06\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude02 \ud835\uddf1\ud835\uddfc \ud835\ude04\ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf5 \ud835\uddf6\ud835\ude01? \ud835\uddd4 \ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddc5 You can read the reports. You can read a summary of each report! You can listen to a podcast version of each report! You can read a \u201cstory\u201d or listen to a podcast based on all 18 reports! Whatever is most valuable to you, and all in our \u201c\ud835\uddec\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude02\ud835\uddff \ud835\uddd6\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddf6\ud835\uddfa\ud835\uddee\ud835\ude01\ud835\uddf2 \ud835\udde7\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddfc\ud835\uddf9\ud835\uddef\ud835\uddfc\ud835\ude05\u201d knowledge solution. Link below in the comments.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Does this pattern of underestimated risk change how you view climate action, policy, or planning? If not, what would? For more curated climate content, please like, comment on, or repost! LinkedIn pushes content you interact with. Follow me on LinkedIn: <\/em><\/a>Mark Trexler<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I\u00a0responded<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Can you compare\u00a0<\/em>these alarming reports<\/a>\u00a0with the litany of failure of doomist predictions?<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

No response.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I tried again sometime later in response to Trexler\u2019s\u00a0adulation<\/a>\u00a0for \u201cWallace Broeker\u2019s seminal paper in Nature\u201d depicting the human influence on climate as playing \u201cclimate routlette<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

And [Wallace Broeker] and so many other alleged Malthusian experts have been proven wrong decade after decade. Again, check out the\u00a0<\/em>much more extensive list<\/a>\u00a0at WUWT, the world\u2019s most viewed website.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The list compiled at WUWT, the world\u2019s most viewed website, is a monument to exaggeration and\u00a0expert failure<\/em>\u00a0(a term popularized by Roger Koppl in\u00a0his book<\/a>\u00a0by the same title). Once again, the realists are beating the alarmists on climate change, but as has been the case with other issues related to human population on a \u2018finite\u2019 earth. Julian Simon lives!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cMy way of dealing with doom-mongers is to let the person talk for a while and then I ask, gently: \u201cDoes feeling this way make you more effective?\u201d \u2013 Amory Lovins<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":425781,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvaTAud3AuY29tXC9jbGltYXRlLXNjaWVuY2UucHJlc3NcL3dwLWNvbnRlbnRcL3VwbG9hZHNcLzIwMjZcLzAyXC9BUU5NLVVRbUxSdDQ5ZnZWb2VXXzU3SzRyQnlnbm5NLXlZZUdMV3Q2Sjlfd0trS1ZfX3NGWVRqR0Y0UGxhWWhvSlc1aHo3VDdZZjBtOTNVS1JBd254WFg5NDZKUWZyTnR3R0txWmI1Y2ppejdIeGpEcFNZWTJkeXYwbHlNMzktM0p5U3FFY1lxeEFVNjctYlNIcXhjb25QdDVhTXo3QS5qcGVnP2ZpdD03MjMlMkM3MjMmc3NsPTEiLCJ0eHQiOiJDbGltYXRlIERvb21pc20gVW5kZXIgUHJlZGljdGVkPyIsInRlbXBsYXRlIjoiaGlnaHdheSIsImZvbnQiOiIiLCJibG9nX2lkIjoxNTU4MTI0NDl9.yJjmSgCNncGy8xUQU_5ZrZiVuWxgcQQUzXoWN7cwsYQMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691818994,691818056,691841343,691820663,691841342],"class_list":{"0":"post-425775","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-climate-action","9":"tag-climate-change","10":"tag-climate-doomism","11":"tag-climate-risk","12":"tag-failure-of-doomist-predictions","14":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQNM-UQmLRt49fvVoeW_57K4rBygnnM-yYeGLWt6J9_wKkKV__sFYTjGF4PlaYhoJW5hz7T7Yf0m93UKRAwnxXX946JQfrNtwGKqZb5cjiz7HxjDpSYY2dyv0lyM39-3JySqEcYqxAU67-bSHqxconPt5aMz7A.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1MLl","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":331859,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=331859","url_meta":{"origin":425775,"position":0},"title":"Author Of New Paper: No AMOC Collapse\u2026\u201dShould Dissuade People From Climate Doomism\u201d","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/06\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"We hear it over and again: the melting ice in Greenland due to warming will soon lead to a collapse of the AMOC, making it difficult for it to \u201crestart\u201d.","rel":"","context":"In \"Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC)\"","block_context":{"text":"Atlantic Meridional Ocean Circulation (AMOC)","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=atlantic-meridional-ocean-circulation-amoc"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00AMOC_observing-system.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00AMOC_observing-system.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00AMOC_observing-system.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00AMOC_observing-system.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/00AMOC_observing-system.jpg?fit=1200%2C676&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":374641,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=374641","url_meta":{"origin":425775,"position":1},"title":"New Study, Good News Greenland\u2019s Ice Loss Likely Won\u2019t Disrupt Atlantic Current","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/04\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"We hear it again and again: the melting ice in Greenland due to global warming will soon lead to a collapse of the Gulf Stream system, with the result that it would be difficult to restart. 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It exists in the person of Joe Romm, Mann\u2019s colleague. 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