{"id":425713,"date":"2026-02-11T17:16:18","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T16:16:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425713"},"modified":"2026-02-11T17:16:21","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T16:16:21","slug":"why-climate-science-is-not-settled","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425713","title":{"rendered":"Why Climate Science Is Not Settled"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"Two<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From The CO2 Coalition<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Vijay Jayaraj<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The repeated claim that climate science is \u201csettled\u201d overlooks myriad uncertainties, competing mechanisms and computer models that miss the mark when tested against reality. Declaring finality in such a field reflects political confidence \u2013 even arrogance \u2013 not scientific maturity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The model-reality divergence<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Computer models \u2013 based on faulty premises \u2013 are the bible for the modern climate movement. This despite the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) describing climate as a \u201ccoupled, non-linear, chaotic system\u201d where long-term prediction is effectively impossible.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policies costing trillions of dollars rely entirely on outputs of these digital simulations. But a model is only as good as its assumptions. When those assumptions fail to match the physical world<\/a>, an honest scientist discards the model. The climate establishment, instead, discards the data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. Department of Energy\u2019s (DOE\u2019s) July 2025 report, \u201cCritical Review of Impacts of GHG Emissions on the US Climate,\u201d exposed a hard truth: Fabricated scenarios supposedly representing future warming of the climate are exaggerations having little relationship to observed reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dr Roy Spencer\u2019s latest analysis<\/a> in January 2026 looked at decadal temperature trends from 39 climate models compared to observations gathered from weather balloons, satellites and analyses of meteorological information. He confirmed that \u201call 39 climate models exhibit larger warming trends\u201d than \u201cobservational data.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Further, theories regarding the Global Warming Potential<\/a> (GWP) of so-called greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO2)<\/sub> ignore the reality of atmospheric saturation, says Dr. William Happer<\/a>. At the current concentration of atmospheric CO2<\/sub>, there is only so much infrared radiation left to be influenced by additional amounts of the gas. In other words, CO2<\/sub>\u2019s warming effect is limited, and increasingly so as more is added. Yet the models assume a higher warming potential than nature exhibits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not your father\u2019s volcanic eruption<\/strong>
The effect of the January 2022 Hunga Tonga underwater eruption exemplifies the climate system\u2019s complexity. The volcano\u2019s net outcome was not the cooling typically expected<\/a> from such an event, but rather a complex interplay<\/a> of competing factors that largely offset one another<\/a>, with the effect on surface temperatures being nearly zero.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome stands in sharp contrast to historical volcanic eruptions. Mount Tambora in 1815 cooled the globe<\/a> by as much as nearly 2 degrees Fahrenheit, producing the \u201cYear Without a Summer.\u201d High-latitude eruptions in the 540s, 1450s, and 1600s generated major global coolings<\/a> through their injection of sulfates into the stratosphere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The climate system has feedback loops and other interactions so intricate that even a single volcanic event exposes the limits of our predictive capacity. Yet climate policies and so-called solutions are advanced with a certainty enjoyed only be the foolhardy and feigned by the dishonest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What extreme weather?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Perhaps the least honest aspect of the climate crusade is the weaponization of weather. Natural disasters are blamed on climate change and, by extension, on the industries that emit the carbon dioxide purported to be the ultimate bogeyman.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the 2025 DOE report confirmed other findings that most extreme weather events in the United States show no long-term trend. Claims that hurricanes, tornadoes and floods are increasing in frequency or intensity collapse upon observation of the historical record.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hurricane landfalls exhibit no significant upward trend<\/a>. Despite predictions of coastal flooding, global sea level has risen only about 8 inches since 1900. Acceleration in the rate of rise beyond historical averages is not apparent<\/a> in U.S. tide gauge measurements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even more telling is the measure that matters most: human survival. Data show<\/a> that death rates from nature\u2019s catastrophes have plummeted over the last century. We are safer from assaults of the elements than at any point in human history.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The irony is that global greening of the past four decades \u2013 an expansion of vegetative cover by 11 million square miles \u2013 has been driven substantially by rising atmospheric CO\u2082. The villain in the climate alarmists\u2019 narrative has proven partly responsible for measurable improvements in ecosystems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is no question that the climate changes over time or that CO2 <\/sub>influences temperatures, although, as noted, to a diminishing degree as its atmospheric concentration increases. However, the overwhelming evidence is that carbon dioxide is an immensely beneficial molecule \u2013 and, as a trace gas in the atmosphere feeding plants and ultimately all life, the more the better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Highly questionable is whether computer models can dissect climatic complexities \u2013 like feedback mechanisms \u2013 to justify the wholesale restructuring of the global energy infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Viewing the climate issue as unsettled is not to deny science, but rather to respect it. Empirical inquiry thrives on skepticism, on a willingness to question assumptions, on the refusal to treat model outputs as conclusive. To dismiss this centuries-old process is to put at risk the lifestyles and lives of billions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Originally published in Real Clear Markets<\/a> on <\/em>February 6, 2026.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vijay Jayaraj<\/a> is a Science and Research Associate at the <\/em>CO2 Coalition<\/em><\/a>, Fairfax, Virginia. He holds an M.S. in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia and a postgraduate degree in energy management from Robert Gordon University, both in the U.K., and a bachelor\u2019s in engineering from Anna University, India. He served as a research associate with the Changing Oceans Research Unit at University of British Columbia, Canada.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The repeated claim that climate science is \u201csettled\u201d overlooks myriad uncertainties, competing mechanisms and computer models that miss the mark when tested against reality. Declaring finality in such a field reflects political confidence \u2013 even arrogance \u2013 not scientific maturity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":425717,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","advanced_seo_description":"Explore the complexities of climate science and why the notion of it being 'settled' ignores critical uncertainties and model failures.","jetpack_seo_html_title":"Why Climate Science Is Not Settled: Understanding the Debate","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"eyJpbWciOiJodHRwczpcL1wvY2xpbWF0ZS1zY2llbmNlLnByZXNzXC93cC1jb250ZW50XC91cGxvYWRzXC8yMDI2XC8wMlwvMEFRTW8xWEdhZVFRY05GRTdCeThyblBnMkROTkdNU2NWbDF2VlBTT19iY2ZEanBnWHFINTBxbU8wc05ULXZUVHQxcXViRHpFMWM4MS0xUHdpaWtGeDJKSW1GZDVWLUJyb2F6ME5lZDNxR2FmTGJrdlQzV3lLOS1XSUkwNy1Wb2R5LTEtMTAyNHg2ODMuanBlZyIsInR4dCI6IldoeSBDbGltYXRlIFNjaWVuY2UgSXMgTm90IFNldHRsZWQiLCJ0ZW1wbGF0ZSI6ImhpZ2h3YXkiLCJmb250IjoiIiwiYmxvZ19pZCI6MTU1ODEyNDQ5fQ.QrYSu0epuHoyvYj1_ERl1LTVQZ3hoUGmXW7LNcQ6r24MQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691829997,691818056,691819140,691819102,691818087,691822733,691838178],"class_list":["post-425713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-carbon-dioxide-co","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-science","tag-computer-models","tag-global-warming","tag-observation","tag-united-nations-intergovernmental-panel-on-climate-change-ipcc-2","fallback-thumbnail"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/0AQMo1XGaeQQcNFE7By8rnPg2DNNGMScVl1vVPSO_bcfDjpgXqH50qmO0sNT-vTTt1qubDzE1c81-1PwiikFx2JImFd5V-Broaz0Ned3qGafLbkvT3WyK9-WII07-Vody-1.jpeg?fit=1402%2C935&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1MKl","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":281447,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=281447","url_meta":{"origin":425713,"position":0},"title":"The Myth of \u201cSettled\u201d Climate Science: A Revelatory Study on Cloud Formation","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"10\/01\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"From Watts Up With That? Trees, Clouds, and the Unsettling Truth about Climate Science In a recent revelation from the international CLOUD project at the nuclear research center CERN, researchers have identified sesquiterpenes\u2014gaseous hydrocarbons released by plants\u2014as a pivotal factor in cloud formation. 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