{"id":425437,"date":"2026-02-10T08:46:54","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T07:46:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425437"},"modified":"2026-02-10T08:46:57","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T07:46:57","slug":"the-international-energy-agencys-reluctant-return-to-energy-realism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=425437","title":{"rendered":"The International Energy Agency\u2019s Reluctant Return to Energy Realism"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"723\" data-attachment-id=\"425444\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=425444\" 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data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMkAy9pjEfV5i0vQs_Y6KPAlSBmgzBCxold6dBiRWYpTmxLvs-gSREo_vYVG0voRFH5Xl6cmX9FKAVdiKlIPrc6ImmlAUv-Ps5OxptmGDTJLOpv0SWiv67NiDqGMv6UBj_0ecZZMHf_ilZ2h91fgNwaw6c.jpeg?fit=723%2C723&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMkAy9pjEfV5i0vQs_Y6KPAlSBmgzBCxold6dBiRWYpTmxLvs-gSREo_vYVG0voRFH5Xl6cmX9FKAVdiKlIPrc6ImmlAUv-Ps5OxptmGDTJLOpv0SWiv67NiDqGMv6UBj_0ecZZMHf_ilZ2h91fgNwaw6c.jpeg?resize=723%2C723&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A smiling man in a suit with a red tie is seated at a desk, signing a document while looking at the camera, with an American flag backdrop.\" class=\"wp-image-425444\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMkAy9pjEfV5i0vQs_Y6KPAlSBmgzBCxold6dBiRWYpTmxLvs-gSREo_vYVG0voRFH5Xl6cmX9FKAVdiKlIPrc6ImmlAUv-Ps5OxptmGDTJLOpv0SWiv67NiDqGMv6UBj_0ecZZMHf_ilZ2h91fgNwaw6c.jpeg?resize=1024%2C1024&amp;ssl=1 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https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMkAy9pjEfV5i0vQs_Y6KPAlSBmgzBCxold6dBiRWYpTmxLvs-gSREo_vYVG0voRFH5Xl6cmX9FKAVdiKlIPrc6ImmlAUv-Ps5OxptmGDTJLOpv0SWiv67NiDqGMv6UBj_0ecZZMHf_ilZ2h91fgNwaw6c.jpeg?resize=450%2C450&amp;ssl=1 450w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMkAy9pjEfV5i0vQs_Y6KPAlSBmgzBCxold6dBiRWYpTmxLvs-gSREo_vYVG0voRFH5Xl6cmX9FKAVdiKlIPrc6ImmlAUv-Ps5OxptmGDTJLOpv0SWiv67NiDqGMv6UBj_0ecZZMHf_ilZ2h91fgNwaw6c.jpeg?resize=60%2C60&amp;ssl=1 60w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMkAy9pjEfV5i0vQs_Y6KPAlSBmgzBCxold6dBiRWYpTmxLvs-gSREo_vYVG0voRFH5Xl6cmX9FKAVdiKlIPrc6ImmlAUv-Ps5OxptmGDTJLOpv0SWiv67NiDqGMv6UBj_0ecZZMHf_ilZ2h91fgNwaw6c.jpeg?resize=550%2C550&amp;ssl=1 550w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMkAy9pjEfV5i0vQs_Y6KPAlSBmgzBCxold6dBiRWYpTmxLvs-gSREo_vYVG0voRFH5Xl6cmX9FKAVdiKlIPrc6ImmlAUv-Ps5OxptmGDTJLOpv0SWiv67NiDqGMv6UBj_0ecZZMHf_ilZ2h91fgNwaw6c.jpeg?w=1280&amp;ssl=1 1280w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">From <a href=\"https:\/\/tilakdoshi.substack.com\/p\/the-international-energy-agencys\">Tilak\u00b4s Substack<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">By <a href=\"https:\/\/substack.com\/@tilakdoshi\">Tilak Doshi<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"723\" height=\"482\" data-attachment-id=\"425439\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?attachment_id=425439\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-97.png?fit=1225%2C817&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1225,817\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-97.png?fit=723%2C482&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-97.png?resize=723%2C482&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"A speaker discussing on stage during a conference, gesturing with hands and wearing a suit.\" class=\"wp-image-425439\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-97.png?resize=1024%2C683&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-97.png?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-97.png?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-97.png?resize=640%2C427&amp;ssl=1 640w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-97.png?resize=1200%2C800&amp;ssl=1 1200w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/image-97.png?w=1225&amp;ssl=1 1225w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 723px) 100vw, 723px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">In a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/energyanalytics.org\/the-return-of-realism-in-global-oil-forecasts\/\">report<\/a>\u00a0published last week by the National Center for Energy Analytics (NCEA), two seasoned veterans of the global energy forecasting establishment delivered what can only be described as a sober and consequential verdict on the state of international energy realism. Neil Atkinson, former head of the oil markets division at the International Energy Agency (IEA), and Adam Sieminski, previously administrator of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), examined the IEA\u2019s\u00a0<em>World Energy Outlook 2025<\/em>\u00a0and concluded that something important, if overdue, had shifted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The IEA, nudged firmly by altered political realities under the Trump administration, has reintroduced its&nbsp;<em>Current Policies Scenario<\/em>&nbsp;(CPS), abandoned unceremoniously since 2019 under pressure from the EU\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/2024\/10\/19\/the-irrationality-of-western-energy-policies\/\">climate-obsessed Brussels bureaucracy<\/a>, America\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/grist.org\/politics\/joe-biden-climate-change-legacy\/\">first environmental presidency<\/a>\u201d under Biden, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/2025\/03\/13\/the-dogeing-of-the-environmental-ngos-cant-come-soon-enough\/\">influential environmental NGOs<\/a>. The reintroduction of the CPS, a \u2018business as usual\u2019 baseline, quietly postponed the IEA\u2019s once-confident&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.realclearenergy.org\/2025\/03\/24\/after_pushing_net_zero_iea_is_finally_waking_up_1099183.html\">proclamations of imminent \u201cpeak oil demand\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">On the surface, this looks like a technical adjustment, a reshuffling of scenario tables in a familiar annual report. In reality, it is a tacit admission that years of advocacy-driven forecasting have collided with political, economic and physical realities that cannot be wished away. Elections, as the clich\u00e9 has it, have consequences. And under the altered circumstances of a second Trump administration committed unapologetically to energy dominance, the IEA has been dragged, kicking and screaming, back towards something resembling its original objective advisory mission.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Perhaps, like\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tilakdoshi.substack.com\/p\/bill-gatess-climate-u-turn-real-epiphany\">Bill Gates, who changed his tune on climate alarmism<\/a>\u00a0under the altered circumstances of the Trump administration and its \u2018energy dominance\u2019 agenda, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA since September 1st, 2015, has also come around to singing from a different hymn sheet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>From Energy Analyst to Net Zero Evangelist<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The reintroduction of the CPS matters precisely because it restores a baseline grounded in what governments are actually doing, not what climate activists hope they might do someday. Since 2019, the IEA had dropped this scenario as it leaned ever more heavily into aspirational constructs designed to flatter the ambitions of the climate industrial complex. It was a capitulation to heavy lobbying from environmental groups, European governments and US Democrats and \u2018RINO\u2019 allies obsessed with aligning every forecast to the Paris Agreement\u2019s Net Zero ambitions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Instead of neutral projections, the IEA began churning out scenarios predicated on varying degrees of \u201cclimate action\u201d, assumptions that inflated the uptake of renewables, electric vehicles (EVs) and other green technologies far beyond what real-world data supported. In the process, it alienated not only producing nations but also consuming countries whose energy security depends on realistic assessments of oil and gas demand and supply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The NCEA report is explicit. Under the reinstated CPS in World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2025, global oil demand does not peak before 2050. Even under the IEA\u2019s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), which assumes governments actually implement announced measures, oil demand peaks later and at higher levels than claimed in WEO 2024. These are not marginal adjustments; they represent a quiet retreat from the agency\u2019s most aggressive narratives of rapid fossil fuel obsolescence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">To understand how significant this retreat is, one must recall how far the IEA had strayed from its founding mandate. Created after the oil shocks of the 1970s, the agency\u2019s purpose was to provide sober, technically grounded advice on global energy supply, demand and security. For decades, it did precisely that. The annual World Energy Outlook reports provided a reasonably objective view for global energy markets and were the go-to source of intelligence on investment requirements in the energy resources sector for the world\u2019s leading energy companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">That credibility began to erode as climate politics intensified. By the late 2010s, the IEA\u2019s modelling increasingly blurred the line between analysis and prescription. This drift culminated in the agency\u2019s&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/tilakdoshi\/2023\/06\/27\/the-ieas-net-zero-roadmap-analyzed\/\">astonishing 2021 manifesto<\/a>, \u2018Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector\u2019, which declared that no new investment in oil, gas or coal was compatible with climate goals. Fatih Birol declared unambiguously that \u201cthere can be no new investments in oil, gas and coal\u201d from that year onward.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">This was not analysis; it was ideology with spreadsheets attached. It ignored the IEA\u2019s own historical data on decline rates in existing fields, population growth and energy demand growth across Asia and the Global South. As Rupert Darwall&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/assets.realclear.com\/files\/2023\/06\/2205_a_critical_assessment_of_the_ieas_net_zero_scenario_esg_and_the_cessation_of_investment_in_new_oil_and_gas_fields.pdf\">observed<\/a>&nbsp;in his critique of the agency\u2019s transformation, the IEA had allowed itself to become a cheerleader for radical Net Zero policies, misleading policymakers while endangering Western energy security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Trump, Energy Dominance and Institutional Fear<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The backlash was inevitable. OPEC dismissed the IEA\u2019s \u201cpeak oil\u201d timelines as fantasy, with the Saudi oil minister calling the report a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.worldoil.com\/news\/2021\/6\/3\/opec-leaders-mock-iea-s-la-la-land-2050-net-zero-roadmap\">la-la-land<\/a>\u201d scenario. Industry analysts warned that capital starvation in upstream oil and gas, driven by regulatory hostility and ESG pressure, was colliding with resilient global demand. The result was not an orderly \u2018energy transition\u2019 but tighter markets, higher prices and a dramatic transfer of geopolitical leverage to producers outside the Western alliance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Today, with global energy demand surging in Asia and Africa, such shortfalls could ignite price volatility, inflation and geopolitical tensions. The&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.netzeroinvestor.net\/news-and-views\/nzba-collapses-as-divide-widens-between-green-and-fossil-lenders\">collapse of the Net Zero Banking Alliance<\/a>&nbsp;in late 2025, amid political backlash and market realities, is a harbinger of what is to come if realism does not prevail. In a broader sense, the IEA\u2019s saga illustrates the perils of institutional capture by climate ideologies. What began as a guardian of energy security morphed into a mouthpiece for aspirational green targets over the hard truths of physics, economics and human development. Fossil fuels are not just energy sources; they are the backbone of modern civilisation, enabling everything from fertilisers to pharmaceuticals. Dismissing them prematurely risks condemning billions in the developing world to energy poverty while enriching adversaries such as Russia and Iran through higher prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The Trump administration\u2019s intervention offers a glimmer of hope. By demanding&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/2025\/06\/20\/why-trumps-gold-standard-executive-order-is-essential-to-restoring-truth-in-science\/\">evidence-based forecasting<\/a>, it reminds the IEA of its roots: advising on real trends, not prescribing utopian visions. But vigilance is essential. As the NCEA report warns, methodological issues persist, and the agency\u2019s European leanings could tempt backsliding. Policymakers must now scrutinise World Energy Outlooks with a critical eye, cross-referencing against EIA and OPEC projections. In the end, the IEA\u2019s reluctant embrace of the CPS is a victory for sanity in energy discourse. But the damage, from misguided investments to eroded trust, has been done. It will take sustained pressure to ensure the agency does not revert to form. After all, in the high-stakes game of global energy, realism is not optional; it is imperative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">From the outset, the Trump administration made clear that energy policy would be subordinated to national interest rather than climate virtue-signalling. \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/2025\/04\/02\/president-trumps-energy-dominance-agenda-leaves-climate-juggernaut-on-brink-of-collapse\/\">Energy dominance<\/a>\u201d was not rhetorical flourish but strategic doctrine, encompassing expanded domestic production, regulatory rollback and a blunt reassessment of international institutions whose climate agendas conflicted with US economic and security priorities. Under this administration, the US has exited and defunded&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.state.gov\/releases\/office-of-the-spokesperson\/2026\/01\/withdrawal-from-wasteful-ineffective-or-harmful-international-organizations\">66 international organisations<\/a>&nbsp;deemed inimical to American interests, including climate-related bodies inside and outside the UN system. The message to remaining institutions was unmistakable: reform or lose American participation. It was in this context that US Energy Secretary Chris Wright issued a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/climaterealism.com\/2025\/07\/energy-secretary-chris-wright-to-iea-reform-or-the-us-exits\/\">stark warning to the IEA<\/a>: abandon advocacy and return to energy security analysis, or risk a US exit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">For an organisation whose authority depends heavily on American engagement, the threat was existential. The shift in tone was immediate. At CERAWeek 2025 in Houston, Birol&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/business\/energy\/ceraweek-iea-director-birol-says-there-is-need-investment-existing-oil-gas-2025-03-10\/\">conceded<\/a>&nbsp;what would have been heresy just a few years earlier: \u201cThere is a need for oil and gas upstream investments, full stop.\u201d One could almost hear the ideological gears grinding as institutional self-preservation asserted itself.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>A Partial Return to Reality, and a Warning<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">None of this should be mistaken for a full return to analytical sobriety. As the NCEA report rightly emphasises, WEO 2025 remains riddled with heroic assumptions.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/dailysceptic.org\/2025\/07\/29\/the-false-promises-of-electric-vehicles-are-being-exposed\/\">Electric vehicle adoption<\/a>&nbsp;is projected to accelerate even as subsidies are rolled back, consumer demand weakens and grid constraints multiply.&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/media4.manhattan-institute.org\/sites\/default\/files\/mines-minerals-green-energy-reality-checkMM.pdf\">Mineral bottlenecks<\/a>&nbsp;\u2013 lithium, cobalt, nickel \u2013 are acknowledged only glancingly, despite their central role in any electrification fantasy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The CPS may be back, but the ideological impulse remains. The IEA continues with aspirational modelling that flatters policymakers rather than confronting them with the hard trade-offs imposed by physics, capital stock and political economy. Still, symbolism matters. Restoring the CPS is an implicit admission that the world does not run on scenarios dreamed up in Paris conference rooms. Energy systems evolve slowly. They cannot be bullied into submission by press releases, nor re-engineered on activist timetables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">The deeper lesson is an old one. Institutions are not immune to political pressure, but neither can they defy reality indefinitely. For a time, the IEA mistook moral fervour for analytical authority. It took a change of government in Washington, and the credible threat of irrelevance through defunding, to remind it of its founding purpose. Elections, as they say, have consequences. Under the altered geopolitical landscape ushered in by the Trump administration\u2019s unapologetic \u201cenergy dominance\u201d agenda, the IEA appears to have been dragged, kicking and screaming, back towards a semblance of objectivity. As Atkinson and Sieminski note in their report, the CPS\u2019s reinstatement \u201chas gone a long way toward answering that its scenarios are divorced from reality\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Institutions rarely change course voluntarily. What shifted between the IEA\u2019s 2021 peak zealotry and its more subdued tone in WEO 2025 was not new climate science or technological breakthroughs, but politics, specifically the return of Donald Trump to the White House. No longer can the Paris-based agency indulge in its role as a cheerleader for radical Net Zero policies without facing the threat of defunding or outright US withdrawal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Whether this fragile return to realism endures remains uncertain. A future US electoral swing could easily revive the fantasy that oil demand can be legislated out of existence. But for now, the message is unmistakable: even the most&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/realclearwire.com\/articles\/2025\/01\/05\/the_climate_agendas_march_through_the_institutions_can_it_be_stopped_1082512.html\">ideologically captured institutions<\/a>&nbsp;eventually rediscover reality, when survival depends on it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\">Energy realism has returned to the IEA not because the facts have changed, but because power has.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Dr Tilak K. Doshi is the\u00a0<\/em>Daily Sceptic<em>\u2018s Energy Editor. He is an economist, a member of the CO<sub>2<\/sub>\u00a0Coalition and a former contributor to\u00a0<\/em>Forbes<em>. Follow him on\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tilakdoshi.substack.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Substack<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/tilakdoshi\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">X<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-medium-font-size wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a\u00a0report\u00a0published last week by the National Center for Energy Analytics (NCEA), two seasoned veterans of the global energy forecasting establishment delivered what can only be described as a sober and consequential verdict on the state of international energy realism. Neil Atkinson, former head of the oil markets division at the International Energy Agency (IEA), and Adam Sieminski, previously administrator of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), examined the IEA\u2019s\u00a0World Energy Outlook 2025\u00a0and concluded that something important, if overdue, had shifted.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":121246920,"featured_media":425444,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","_crdt_document":"","advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"IEA's Shift: Embracing Energy Realism Under Trump Era","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":true,"token":"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.itDwJWX3y8I_r3fHo58RlGmsxvLdjU2wki0c2PD_2OQMQ"},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[1],"tags":[691819142,691821808,691820835,691818154,691833487,691834008],"class_list":{"0":"post-425437","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","6":"hentry","7":"category-uncategorized","8":"tag-energy-policy","9":"tag-energy-security","10":"tag-international-energy-agency-iea","11":"tag-net-zero","12":"tag-us-president-donald-j-trump","13":"tag-world-energy-outlook","15":"fallback-thumbnail"},"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQMkAy9pjEfV5i0vQs_Y6KPAlSBmgzBCxold6dBiRWYpTmxLvs-gSREo_vYVG0voRFH5Xl6cmX9FKAVdiKlIPrc6ImmlAUv-Ps5OxptmGDTJLOpv0SWiv67NiDqGMv6UBj_0ecZZMHf_ilZ2h91fgNwaw6c.jpeg?fit=1280%2C1280&ssl=1","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxLW1-1MFT","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":390505,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=390505","url_meta":{"origin":425437,"position":0},"title":"Energy Secretary Chris Wright to IEA: Reform or the US Exits","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"24\/07\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The International Energy Agency (IEA), established in 1974 in the wake of the Arab oil embargo, was founded with a clear and vital mission: to ensure energy security for its member nations, with coordinated oil stockpiling and rigorous data and analysis to guide energy planning and investment. For decades, it\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"Energy Dominance\"","block_context":{"text":"Energy Dominance","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=energy-dominance"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AQOREe0R-K5X3QJLk3pNdD1mVDpVMNHlKotyjn5pBUF5DHSkMqD7MbCxGhsm3QFqbZ6yVWzaPf-5uyXfBxEwAAozF-LodreihU07Lo31TSte9R_X2m05wEz8kHeKysGpX_4TIqSAYTCRwbsLQLX5NbJHcXF5Xw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AQOREe0R-K5X3QJLk3pNdD1mVDpVMNHlKotyjn5pBUF5DHSkMqD7MbCxGhsm3QFqbZ6yVWzaPf-5uyXfBxEwAAozF-LodreihU07Lo31TSte9R_X2m05wEz8kHeKysGpX_4TIqSAYTCRwbsLQLX5NbJHcXF5Xw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AQOREe0R-K5X3QJLk3pNdD1mVDpVMNHlKotyjn5pBUF5DHSkMqD7MbCxGhsm3QFqbZ6yVWzaPf-5uyXfBxEwAAozF-LodreihU07Lo31TSte9R_X2m05wEz8kHeKysGpX_4TIqSAYTCRwbsLQLX5NbJHcXF5Xw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AQOREe0R-K5X3QJLk3pNdD1mVDpVMNHlKotyjn5pBUF5DHSkMqD7MbCxGhsm3QFqbZ6yVWzaPf-5uyXfBxEwAAozF-LodreihU07Lo31TSte9R_X2m05wEz8kHeKysGpX_4TIqSAYTCRwbsLQLX5NbJHcXF5Xw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/AQOREe0R-K5X3QJLk3pNdD1mVDpVMNHlKotyjn5pBUF5DHSkMqD7MbCxGhsm3QFqbZ6yVWzaPf-5uyXfBxEwAAozF-LodreihU07Lo31TSte9R_X2m05wEz8kHeKysGpX_4TIqSAYTCRwbsLQLX5NbJHcXF5Xw.jpeg?fit=1200%2C1200&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":309323,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=309323","url_meta":{"origin":425437,"position":1},"title":"Singapore: A Tale of Two IEAs","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"16\/03\/2024","format":false,"excerpt":"Will Singapore and its Southeast Asian neighbors continue to hew toward free markets to promote economic development, or will they follow the examples of countries in Europe and North America in pursuing \u201cclean energy transitions\u201d by policy mandates which curtail the use of fossil fuels?","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate change\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate change","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-change"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0328442.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0328442.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0328442.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0328442.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/0328442.jpg?fit=1200%2C750&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":371174,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=371174","url_meta":{"origin":425437,"position":2},"title":"After Years of Pushing Net Zero Propaganda the International Energy Agency Suddenly Remembers What it\u2019s For","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"21\/03\/2025","format":false,"excerpt":"At last week\u2019s CERA Week conference in Houston, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol\u00a0told\u00a0attendees that \u201cI want to make it clear\u2026 there would be a need for investment, especially to address the decline in the existing fields. There is a need for oil and gas upstream\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"CERA\"","block_context":{"text":"CERA","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=cera"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Carbon-Utilization-and-Other-Needed-Technologies-for-the-Transition-to-Net-Zero-banner-2-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C588&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Carbon-Utilization-and-Other-Needed-Technologies-for-the-Transition-to-Net-Zero-banner-2-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C588&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Carbon-Utilization-and-Other-Needed-Technologies-for-the-Transition-to-Net-Zero-banner-2-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C588&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Carbon-Utilization-and-Other-Needed-Technologies-for-the-Transition-to-Net-Zero-banner-2-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C588&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/0Carbon-Utilization-and-Other-Needed-Technologies-for-the-Transition-to-Net-Zero-banner-2-scaled-1.jpg?fit=1200%2C588&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":429848,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=429848","url_meta":{"origin":425437,"position":3},"title":"IEA\u2019s 2026 Ministerial Meeting Was Its Most Consequential","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"06\/03\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"The International Energy Agency (IEA) held its biennial meeting of energy ministers in Paris last week. Usually, this is a worthy occasion with little accompanying controversy. This time, it was very different. The event was the biggest in the Agency\u2019s history reflecting the growth in its membership in the past\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"China\"","block_context":{"text":"China","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=china"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AQME-11wZ19-uVrQmHL-fhkv3PZcz1t4wXwI9uVvJsrQYKfHW09aSEKRh2iDe-t5dMoh-f4Q9MVB-ckTVZAXrIYY1kqggkFdLzjjQSRVteUU-UvoLX1B8FdDL7eOsQIb.jpeg?fit=1200%2C659&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AQME-11wZ19-uVrQmHL-fhkv3PZcz1t4wXwI9uVvJsrQYKfHW09aSEKRh2iDe-t5dMoh-f4Q9MVB-ckTVZAXrIYY1kqggkFdLzjjQSRVteUU-UvoLX1B8FdDL7eOsQIb.jpeg?fit=1200%2C659&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AQME-11wZ19-uVrQmHL-fhkv3PZcz1t4wXwI9uVvJsrQYKfHW09aSEKRh2iDe-t5dMoh-f4Q9MVB-ckTVZAXrIYY1kqggkFdLzjjQSRVteUU-UvoLX1B8FdDL7eOsQIb.jpeg?fit=1200%2C659&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AQME-11wZ19-uVrQmHL-fhkv3PZcz1t4wXwI9uVvJsrQYKfHW09aSEKRh2iDe-t5dMoh-f4Q9MVB-ckTVZAXrIYY1kqggkFdLzjjQSRVteUU-UvoLX1B8FdDL7eOsQIb.jpeg?fit=1200%2C659&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/AQME-11wZ19-uVrQmHL-fhkv3PZcz1t4wXwI9uVvJsrQYKfHW09aSEKRh2iDe-t5dMoh-f4Q9MVB-ckTVZAXrIYY1kqggkFdLzjjQSRVteUU-UvoLX1B8FdDL7eOsQIb.jpeg?fit=1200%2C659&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":285740,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=285740","url_meta":{"origin":425437,"position":4},"title":"Pielke Jr.: Going All in with Peak Fossil Fuels by 2030","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"30\/10\/2023","format":false,"excerpt":"More generally, the issuance of a forecast by IEA contradicts everything we have learned about the perils of energy system forecasting. With rare exceptions, medium- and long-range forecasts become largely worthless in a matter of years, and often a few months after their publication. From Watts Up With That? The\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"CO2\"","block_context":{"text":"CO2","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=co2"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-833.png?fit=1200%2C803&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-833.png?fit=1200%2C803&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-833.png?fit=1200%2C803&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-833.png?fit=1200%2C803&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/10\/image-833.png?fit=1200%2C803&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":424371,"url":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?p=424371","url_meta":{"origin":425437,"position":5},"title":"Expert Study Shows Sanity Returning to Global Oil Forecasts, But Damage Has Been","author":"uwe.roland.gross","date":"02\/02\/2026","format":false,"excerpt":"It can be hard to explain to a general audience how important the release of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) is to policymakers, energy companies and investors who make hundreds of billions of dollars in investment decisions worldwide each year.","rel":"","context":"In \"Climate Policies\"","block_context":{"text":"Climate Policies","link":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/?tag=climate-policies"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQM6uASCh6sY3Vl9GzRbxNJlfaVQdKi6F0AOxT5JUJC9Wb9nnTCSXqIU5Nl8EQA54rBFdiIeCYANxSVRWaH9wQTJAraNw8QMEoNs4rvyI7t6Xnx7N5dkEtxdBydYQ7WY.jpeg?fit=1200%2C731&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQM6uASCh6sY3Vl9GzRbxNJlfaVQdKi6F0AOxT5JUJC9Wb9nnTCSXqIU5Nl8EQA54rBFdiIeCYANxSVRWaH9wQTJAraNw8QMEoNs4rvyI7t6Xnx7N5dkEtxdBydYQ7WY.jpeg?fit=1200%2C731&ssl=1&resize=350%2C200 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQM6uASCh6sY3Vl9GzRbxNJlfaVQdKi6F0AOxT5JUJC9Wb9nnTCSXqIU5Nl8EQA54rBFdiIeCYANxSVRWaH9wQTJAraNw8QMEoNs4rvyI7t6Xnx7N5dkEtxdBydYQ7WY.jpeg?fit=1200%2C731&ssl=1&resize=525%2C300 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQM6uASCh6sY3Vl9GzRbxNJlfaVQdKi6F0AOxT5JUJC9Wb9nnTCSXqIU5Nl8EQA54rBFdiIeCYANxSVRWaH9wQTJAraNw8QMEoNs4rvyI7t6Xnx7N5dkEtxdBydYQ7WY.jpeg?fit=1200%2C731&ssl=1&resize=700%2C400 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/climatescience.press\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/AQM6uASCh6sY3Vl9GzRbxNJlfaVQdKi6F0AOxT5JUJC9Wb9nnTCSXqIU5Nl8EQA54rBFdiIeCYANxSVRWaH9wQTJAraNw8QMEoNs4rvyI7t6Xnx7N5dkEtxdBydYQ7WY.jpeg?fit=1200%2C731&ssl=1&resize=1050%2C600 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425437","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/121246920"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=425437"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425437\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":425445,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/425437\/revisions\/425445"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/425444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=425437"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=425437"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/climatescience.press\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=425437"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}